Armchair GM: Planning a Strategy and First Wave Offseason Proposals
Primer
This is now the eighth in the offseason Armchair GM series, ninth perhaps if you count the Jason Robertson and Franchise Wing Breakdown.
At this point, I’ve covered plenty of the offseason potential options and now we’re moving into the subjective. The purpose through most of the coverage was to empower you to use data to make your own decisions.
Now, I get to personally connect all the dots and outline how I would personally approach the offseason. With limited information about player availability, and no real framework for value or player asks, this amounts to more or less guesswork. At the same time, real NHL executives still have fog of war to fight through so outlining some “probabilistic” moves or if/then trees still make sense.
Key Deadlines Timeline
We can’t fully separate the moves to be made from the time in which they must be made. Like certain players’ trade clauses locking in on July 1st, Jordan Kyrou and Elias Pettersson among others I’m sure, certain factors conspire to make the draft a period where things must happen.
There’s not much time between the draft and free agency, and once picks are made they are no longer currency, so the draft is a major trading event. The combine was reportedly a large information exchange event, so things could kick off as soon as the Cup ends.
Stanley Cup Final: June 4th to June 20th
Deals usually don’t happen during the playoffs out of respect but if it goes long that will make the final timeline difficult
Buyout Window: Starting 48 hours after Cup Final, Ending June 30th
NHL Draft: June 27th-28th
NYR Draft Pick Conditions: They have until 48 hours before the start of the first round of the draft, which would be June 25th.
RFA Free Negotiation Window: June 30th
Free Agency: July 1st
Pre-Draft Trade Strategy
Part of the job in determining draft trades is in identifying who is buying and who is selling picks. The problem, this season, is that there are a ton of sellers and few buyers. Perhaps, then, the move is to stay put and mine what is becoming a more intriguing draft than I would have expected. But maybe it means get a deal done early before players come off the market and deals get more desperate.
For the Blue Jackets, and Don Waddell who is reportedly heavily shopping the firsts, identifying trades early will be critical. They will have to make a decision on who is worth trading for prior to seeing those picks.
Might Want To Make Picks:
The most speculative. There are a ton of teams with multiple first round picks in the draft, CBJ, potentially Pittsburgh (whose two picks would represent the single largest package), Montreal, Philadelphia, Nashville, Calgary, Chicago, San Jose.
Many longtime contenders don’t have any picks for a few years, perhaps because of judging this draft to be weak or just general get roster players philosophy, but perhaps some of their success or lackthereof means they look for early moves there. Maybe more teams start to bet on their scouting and development and move toward the Dallas approach of continual cycling.
Dallas
Toronto
Winnipeg
Boston
New York Islanders
Vancouver
Poised for Surgery:
There are rumors swirling about a more or less Buffalo revolt with Tuch, Samuelsson, Power and some other veterans mentioned (and a recently published expose on the Pegula/Adams dynamic). They just hired Jarmo Kekelainen.
The New York Rangers are mid roster deconstruction for a retool, the Canucks seem like they’re trying desperately to avoid the same. Nashville reportedly “doesn’t see a pathway to good”. Each of these opens the door for moving certain players for solid value packages.
New York Rangers
Buffalo Sabres
Vancouver Canucks
Nashville Predators
The best we can do at this point is use NHL Insider trade boards. The Athletic Lists the Following Players from the Acquisition List which represent some good targets, give or take, for Don Waddell to pursue at or prior to the NHL Draft.
Chris Kreider
Marco Rossi
K’Andre Miller
JJ Peterka
Jonathan Marchessault
Erik Karlsson
JG Pageau
Morgan Geekie
Trade Targets:
Heavily Pursue:
K’Andre Miller
Owen Power
Zach Benson
Josh Doan
Porter Martone (trading up?)
I’ve detailed the approach here already. K’Andre Miller isn’t a perfect defensemen. Hasn’t showed the continued development you would have liked. Still, he’s 25 and he’s always, at the very least, been a good PKer. He’s a neutral zone stopper who I think would flourish in the short term under Dean Evason.
Owen Power is just good. He’s a wizard playmaker, puck mover and retriever who could help float the roster away from Werenski. He’s not physical or commanding but I think would be poised to play alongside Werenski should the roster not shakeout or Mateychuk command his own pair.
Zach Benson is the one to get but he’s recently drafted and on an ELC. He’s the perfect addition to the roster long-term. He’s small but he’s Brad Marchand without the extra curricular psychopathy. He gets it and he’s the perfect fit in terms of playstyle and competitive makeup.
Josh Doan is perhaps a strange one that I might be a little too dialed in on. Still, when I watch him I see everything the Blue Jackets need. He’s had great AHL production, stellar albeit unbelievable defensinve metrics in the NHL, and has some history with Adam Fantilli in Junior as well. He’s the son of an NHLer and looks perfectly poised to play the style that the Blue Jackets want going forward. He’s physical, can strip pucks and eagerly moves to fill the center position. He’s a first-in, last-out type wing who looks like a perfect third wheel.
I’ve made my case for Porter Martone pretty clear. I think this is a special player who looks about as near as you can to the Matthew Tkachuk’s and Jason Robertson’s of the world. He has some flaws which might preclude him becoming those players, namely compete and defense, I’ve heard pace too but I suspect that’s a miscalculation of his archetype. Having watched his pre-tournament and World Championship games, I think these aspects of his game will grow dramatically as he matures and moves up levels. I can’t say that he’ll possess the ultimate defensive acumen of either, but he has the “momentum forecasting” and “body intelligence” to go with his playmaking ability. That’s the kind of sense and small area domination that I think translates to the playoffs and his puck moving in transition is exactly the type that unlocks a player like Adam Fantilli.
To be honest, I assume he goes very high in the draft and my desire to add him to the club is little more than a pipedream. One I similarly shared with Zach Benson before he fell outside of the top ten in the draft (I was theorycrafting some unhinged proposals to get Vancouver’s 11OA that year, undone by their buyout of OEL and Jarmo’s trading of the LA pick for Ivan Provorov). Could the Blue Jackets trade up to get him? It seems like Pittsburgh has an intense desire to do that and NYR giving up their pick could make it an easy reality if Martone starts to fall. Chicago is reportedly offering up 3OA for a “difference maker” but who qualifies for a pick that high?
Be In On:
All The Other Sabres Except Byram (Peterka, McLeod, Tuch)
Marco Rossi
Filip Forsberg
Luke Evangelista/Fedor Svechkov
Peterka is an offensive phenom not without physicality. His defensive metrics have been abhorrent. Could he be converted into a forechecking or possession menace? He certainly has the flashes. If he can’t figure it out defensively, the Blue Jackets have gone in the wrong direction or will have plenty more work to do.
Alex Tuch is tough. A great fit but without a long term contract and at an age that doesn’t totally fit with the Blue Jackets unless he’s there for a steal.
Ryan McLeod would be highly interesting as a pacey matchup forward who can flex to the wing and make some plays while keeping up with Adam Fantilli. I’m not sure the “jam” is all there but he can cover ice and has an active stick.
Marco Rossi is an interesting young player who I think would improve the Blue Jackets. The roster fit isn’t perfectly aligned, he’s probably not getting a job over Fantilli or Monahan and probably not well suited for a matchup role, and he wants to get paid by the Wild. Dean Evason will be somewhat familiar and I think he could thrive on the wing as a “weakside” attacker.
Filip Forsberg is nearly the perfect player for the Blue Jackets but he’s not the perfect age or contract (he’s also got a full NMC) and he’s bound to be expensive. That poses a problem for the Blue Jackets who need to serve Adam Fantilli’s growth and ascension more than anything else. He’s a “powerforward” that seems like he’ll age well but it’s far from a guarantee. He’s moreso very powerful than he is someone who makes a living on throwing huge hits which is why I am perhaps too optimistic about his aging.
The two young Predators would both be interesting fits. Svechkov looks poised to be a Monahan-type play connector who could quickly grow into a matchup oriented role. He’s probably the type of player Nashville holds onto given his age but I suppose you never know.
Beware:
Karlsson
Marchessault
Byram
Bryan Rust
Rickard Rakell
The rest can probably wait. Noah Dobson, Tyson Foerster are already off the table, as now is Kreider.
Of this group, Marchessault is perhaps the most interesting. I really hate his contract, I think it was remarkably stupid to sign, though perhaps not as bad as Stamkos’. He strikes me as a strange character, remember that unhinged instagram rant?, but he is at least very competitive.
Beware the cost of Ehlers/Peterka. They’re very good and therefore absolutely meet objective #1 BUT they might not have full value deployment on the Blue Jackets without costing Kent Johnson or Adam Fantilli some development or without putting them in similar situations they just left. Primarily, they are wing stars who might not see powerplay time or might take if from the current Blue Jackets.
The NYR Pick
Personally, given the heat around him, I think K’Andre Miller is back on the table as the top overall target. Though last season was a little bit suspect, I think he has the potential to fill a dynamic killer role and his skillset is well aligned of Dean Evason system asks (great activator, great shooter, great skater, great neutral zone defender).
The NYR first round pick conditions mean offers for him should take priority, it’s possible CBJ can find some benefit in working with NYR to solve some of their 2025 vs 2026 traded pick problems. Waddell was in on Trouba, but does Drury want to deal a potential breakout player inside the division? Perhaps Provorov rights can exchange hands along with the draft capital. NYR are a prime target to be exploited via offer sheet so you’d think Day 1 of the draft, if not 48 hours before, would be a point of action for them.
What’s interesting here is how dealing with NYR, and having the pick move or not move to Pittsburgh, could undermine or help CBJ’s offseason plans. If Pittsburgh has two first round picks at 12 and 13, they can outbid CBJ on anything. Does that mean Don Waddell wants NYR to keep their pick or does he believe they’re operating in different circles?
The rest, especially Buffalo, might take more time to work through given the rather large change they seemed poised for.
Trade Plan May Depend On Who Is Available At 14 And What Else Happens
If certain players are available via trade, you have to make the move. I think the above “heavily pursue” players, or any current NHL stars, qualify as players who you trade without worrying about who is available at the moment of selection. Still, if certain players are available via draft, you’d really like to make the pick.
The very much wanted players:
Carter Bear (pace and forechecking)
Victor Eklund (pace, forechecking, playmaking)
Jackson Smith (nz defending, size, skating)
Carter Bear and Victor Eklund are not huge players, and I would hope that Don Waddell doesn’t exclude them of consideration for that reason, but they have fire and compete. Bear has a worry with his achilles, which has hampered at least an excellent prospect like Peyton Krebs before, but his playstyle is otherwise phenomenal.
Jackson Smith is interesting. He’s got a huge range of outcomes and abilities across the sheet of ice. I wonder if he peaked early, he was the 2nd overall pick in the WHL draft, and is simply using his athleticism and skills to dominate Junior competition. Maybe moving to the NCAA with force some growth out but it’s hard not to feel like he might not have the “sense” to realize his tools and athletic potential.
If things go reasonably well, you might just have a K’Andre Miller type 3 years from now. If they go extremely well, you might have a Travis Sanheim. If they don’t go well, maybe you just have a Carson Soucy or even Damon Severson type. The competitive trend, or winning trend, is to find defensemen who don’t make a ton of mistakes or to play a system that minimizes them. It’s not likely Smith plays for Dean Evason but he looks like a good fit there.
The Probably Good but Maybe an RFA Trade is Better:
Justin Carbonneau
Kashawn Aitcheson
Lynden Lakovic
Cole Reschny
Given Waddell’s desire to become a heavily competitive team, which sounds like maybe he’s getting the correct takeaway from Florida and not “be big and gooney,” Carbonneau fits in spades. He has some overly puck dominant tendencies and might lean a little too much into the solo player, shooting dominant type that the Blue Jackets have a lot of already. That said, his competitiveness is unimpeachable. Perhaps outside of the QMJHL he can adapt to a more team centric approach.
Lakovic could be excellent but his compete is his biggest red flag. He certainly has physical stature and playmaking but might need the “fire” brought out of him. Is that maturity? The Blue Jackets would have an inside track with Denton Mateychuk having played with him but his on-ice persona
Kashawn Aitcheson looks born for the moments in the playoffs. He’s combative and with the unrelenting confidence that defending the best players in the world night in and night out requires. It’s not too hard to see him looking a lot like Niko Mikkola but with perhaps a desire to mix it up a little bit more. In taking Aitcheson, though it looks like he might go earlier, the Blue Jackets would probably be leaving some skill on the table. When I watched him, I certainly saw some interesting offensive patterns and his shot is certainly good but playing defense in the NHL is really hard and requires a lot of skill outside of shooting.
I’ve written much of this prior to diving deep into KJ and Marchenko and Robertson and after watching some late games, have now bumped Reschny up. When watching some of these playoff games where he played against Jackson Smith, it was hard to think he wasn’t the better player. Maybe he doesn’t translate as well because he’s not the better athlete but his play-building approach is phenomenal.
I’m sure CBJ will have their own internal lists but these micro lists are how I’d be thinking about evaluating any potential deal. CBJ had offers for 4OA last season and would have dealt it had Cayden Lindstrom not been available. If Carter Bear, Jackson Smith or better are available at 14, I’d have to really love the player acquired to not feel pangs of regret.
Reschny and Kindel are also very interesting players as well and more likely to go around or earlier than the 20th overall pick. Their play-building and two-way acumen make them excellent complements to nearly every toolsy attacking player that CBJ have drafted. We don’t draft for that sort of fit, and the current roster could use it more, but they’d bring diversity if they hit.
I think you’d also have to take a strong look at some interesting defensive orented playres in Braeden Cootes and Bill Zonnon. Different players, to be sure, and not without warts (that’s pretty much everyone in this class) but options potentially available at 20 that could be NHL contributors. Zonnon’s tracked data grades him out as a very interseting playmaker who contributes quite a lot in transition. The problem? Physical mechanics. Don Waddell likes great skaters and though it can be improved if an individual is willing, David Jiricek might be the poster child for signficant issues undermining development potential.
I can’t be sure if Zonnon has the overall game to work in the Martone archetype but if he has the hockey sense and playmaking to overcome the feet, and takes forward steps for these mechanical issues, he could fit in that sort of wheelhouse on his highest end development outcome.
Cootes just looks like a player destined to be a responsible 3C. He’s right handed, which might be a plus, and has all of the supportive data to work from the d zone out. There’s not much more to say than that
Vaclav Nestrasil and Ryker Lee, similarly, seems pretty interesting as well and seem certain bets to be available at 20. Nestrasil finished the season strong with some rhymes with Kirill Marchenko. He’s got hands, size and flashes skills, as Marchenko did around his draft but might still be a project.
There’s not much Nestrašil can’t do. Every night, he plays with the same high level of energy. A punishing player who seeks out big hits, skates hard after every puck, and knocks away pucks with well-timed swipes, he’s always noticeable without the puck.
With possession, Nestrašil plays a high-skill, team-focused game. He works give-and-gos, drawing in the nearest defender first to give his teammate more space. With full-reach handling skill, he pulls pucks off the wall and gets to the slot in onemotion, as well as carves through traffic off the rush.
The star of the show is Nestrašil’s playmaking. He doesn’t just have passing touch and vision but also adaptability and creativity. He slips and hooks passes through defenders, often deceiving the defender first with a look-off or shot fake. The creativity really blossomed in the second half, too.
Ryker Lee is a newly 6 foot tall winger, he had a recent growth spurt apparently, who has an incredible amount of skill.
There’s a lot of work ahead for Lee in terms of skating development and play selection, who can be quite inefficient with possession. A stiff skater without much explosion, he might get swarmed in the professional ranks. A late growth spurt almost certainly impacted the skating, but he won’t need skating as an advantage to play in the NHL – the skill’s just that good.
Both right handed players might just be an outright take at 20, which precludes a trade down, but that depends heavily on the draft. Depending on where you read, each of these players could be available in the second round. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it, especially for Nestrasil’s 6’5” stature, but it’s possible.
The elephants in the room are Radim Mrtka and Logan Hensler. I have primarily avoided advocating for them for a couple of reasons. I just don’t find them that good or interesting. I understand the desire to fill the David Jiricek hole but his presence in the system was always probabilistic. Like all prospects, they aren’t guaranteed to make impacts and we have to treat them that way. Just because Jiricek is gone doesn’t mean we need to replace him. We need to take the best players available because you never know how things are going to shake out. Maybe Cayden Lindstrom goes the same direction or only tops out as a third line wing, then we’ve passed on a potentially excellent forward and are caught playing whack-a-mole.
There’s something to be said about the draft being asset acquisition and therefore future market scarcity playing a role in the valuation of a prospect but the most scarce and valuable resource is good players to begin with.
Personally, I hope Mrtka is taken off the plate as an option by the time the Blue Jackets pick at 14. He’s big and defensively responsible which just isn’t the flavor I’m looking for in a top pick. Would he play a role on the roster, sure, but it would feel more like paying rent than it would a ceiling elevating move. If you think his ceiling is a defensive stopper, you can get those in the 2nd round.
Hensler, in many ways, is the same. He’s solid, to be sure, but his developmental trajectory isn’t fantastic (he looked much more exciting with the USNTDP early last season) and he’s now playing at Wisconsin which is something of a developmental graveyard. If the Blue Jackets don’t like anyone else at 20, sure go ahead, I think I’d disagree but at least those space creation metrics, playmaking and NCAA competition leave something to hang your hat on.
If the Blue Jackets make picks and leave with Bear/Nestrasil or Smith/Kindel (or whatever combination), I’ll be pretty optimistic about the outcome. The draft has been largely panned as “below average” and I don’t necessarily find that incorrect, but I think there will be interesting players to be had. There are red flags in so many of the prospects and determining which ones can be overcome in different situations (many of these players will graduate to the NCAA next season) could yield tremendous boom potential. The late developments of players like Reschny, Lee and Nestrasil make for a much better pick proposition than we would have seen around the trade deadline.
Keep an Eye Out for Trade Down Deals.
Personally, I have an eye on Jacob Rombach. 6’6”, excellent defender, perhaps even better puck retriever. This is an unusual combination for a player of his size, which I usually don’t find all that appealing, but he’s also going to D-man development factory University of Minnesota. (If you’re reading this now and also an EliteProspects Draft Guide reader, I promise I had this blurb written before very similar words in the draft guide).
He played alongside CBJ prospect Tanner Henricks in the USHL, so CBJ should have him on the radar. I’m not sure the value is there for a first round pick, but late 30s or early 40s feels exactly on brand if you believe he’s going to be a guaranteed shutdown defenseman in the NHL. Last year, EJ Emery was drafted late first on an all-defense, no-offense profile.
Penciling in a “twin towers” third pair a few years down the line has at least some appeal. The Blue Jackets have to believe they’ll be in the playoffs by the time these picks are arriving and how often has a playoff team even had a green shutdown third pairing? Can’t say I’ve seen it. (Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud were 24 and 26 when Vegas won the cup, perhaps that is the angle CBJ would hope to be taking, it kind of works if Werenski is Pietrangelo and Mateychuk is Theodore 6 or so years from now).
I don’t think any of these players make it to CBJ’s third round picks, hence trade down, but they might be value relative to availability at 20 and if the Blue Jackets can pick up some extra capital along the way it might pay off.
There are plenty of good players that I simply haven’t had time to cover.
Carolina traded from #27 and picked up #34 and #50 from the Blackhawks last season. That’s a dream trade down situation and one CBJ would be wise to find depending on available players. Philadelphia, ironically, have an astronomical amount of late 1st and early 2nd draft picks. Nashville have an extra pick or two and might also want a single player badly.
Cup Checklist Objectives:
Find Shutdown Players
Matchup Forwards
Shutdown Defensemen
Grow Fantilli, Kent Johnson and Mateychuk
Maintain Werenski, Monahan, Marchenko
Integrate Lindstrom, Elick, Brindley (Perhaps Two Years From Now)
Replace Jenner, Provorov, Severson, Gudbranson
Find a Star Goaltender
Acquisition Objectives
Get Better Players
Mine Future Stars
Simple as that, the Blue Jackets have a ton of directions to improve.
Second Pairing Defense Support (Either Offense or Defense)
Matchup Defense
Offensive/Puck Moving Impact to help Middle-Six Forward Lines
Upgrade the Skating of the Defense, Especially Neutral Zone Defending
Werenski Partner if Fabbro Isn’t Signed
Improve Defensive Ability of Forwards
Push Jenner to Third Pair
Push Sillinger for Fourth Line or Wing
Find Matchup Line Anchor
Find a Top Six Forward who;
Can Connect Passes and Enhance the in-possession play of Fantilli and KJ
Can Create Net-Front Playmaking on the PP (ideally Right Shot)
Remain Open to a Player who Could Thrive Alongside Monahan-Marchenko
Goaltending?
Jet Greaves is Tandem Caliber At Least
Veterans? Bona-Fide Starter? Keep Merzlikins?
Second Wave Post-Draft Potential
Once the draft has passed, the biggest movement window with the highest potential for Blue Jackets roster reconstruction has passed. Free Agency will be a big window that provides Waddell opportunity to improve the club.
If Waddell hasn’t found any moves after the draft, there are still angles for roster improvement. I’ve already written a bit about how the Blue Jackets could exploit their short term cap advantage but they really aren’t the only team with a ton of cap.
Big one season offers for Vladislav Gavrikov or Matt Duchene could answer short terms questions. Attaching those to long term contract offers (through the Kotkaniemi circumvention technique) could mitigate long term risk and give them the term that they might desire. An 8 year extension is probably required to not be considered cap circumvention but Stever Werier seems to suggest that the sort of wink and nod negotations aren’t all that uncommon anyway.
The problem with those two, and especially a high dollar short term into extension angle, is that I would project both to be worse next year than they were this year. Though that risk is mitigated with term, it might be hard to sell ownership on overpaying for poor performance and might undermine the follow up extention probabilities. That means a long term, high dollar deal is also at risk.
Otherwise, Waddell can be positioned to succeed by keeping his powder dry and trying to be part of the contender retool second wave trades. Vegas always wants to make a splash. If they have to make room for, say, Mitch Marner the Blue Jackets should be all-in on giving them some cap relief for either William Karlsson, Nicolas Roy or Zach Whitecloud. Keegan Kolesar could be a depth addition that clears minor cap there too. Each of these players would serve the objectives above, especially so if the Blue Jakets have made picks.
If Florida really wants to make moves to keep Sam Bennett or Aaron Ekblad, though given their analytics front office I’d assume they bet on themselves to find replacements, a player like Evan Rodrigues checks a ton of boxes and Nate Schmidt might be a casualty anyway.
Dallas has a strong desire to move some cap to get themselves out of a pinch. Jason Robertson heat has cooled, and rightfully so, but the Blue Jackets could take advantage of plenty of their other players too. Ilya Lyubushkin isn’t really desirable but maybe he makes Gudbranson more expendable and is moved more or less for free? Mason Marchment is the type of third wheel that could fit with Johnson and Fantilli or even Monahan and Marchenko. Bichsel would be incredibly attractive to the Blue Jackets, and might be frozen out of Dallas’ top four, but that would require something tremendous from the Blue Jackets.
Similarly, if Utah is trying to make big moves I think they stand as a team well positioned for the Blue Jackets to profit from. Most likely the peripheral pieces on their team are used in any deal but this was a good underlying team that just didn’t get it done. Jack McBain could be a servicable 3C, Josh Doan is a personal favorite, Nick Schmaltz would be great next to Fantilli and KJ though doesn’t have the fire that makes him a long term fit I suppose. Mattias Maccelli is a breakout waiting to happen but the Blue Jackets might already have their “skilled but not physical” quota filled by Kent Johnson. If Utah makes big moves, the Blue Jackets could pick up some scraps and get some breakout seasons.
Nashville doesn’t have many options to pick from on the “secondary” market but if Waddell can’t find anyone else, I’d be highly interested in some of their young players like Fedor Svechkov or Luke Evangelista but you’d have to think they’d be the players to keep. Ryan O’Reilly certainly fits a role but would likely be too expensive for his window of impact. Maybe Don wants to bet on Juuse Saros? Michael Bunting, technically, could fit as a low-cost addition while bringing some competitiveness as third-wheel experience. He certainly has the line-toeing and ref manipulation aspects but I’d worry that would be taking the wrong message from Florida success.
As for Buffalo, there’s a ton of potential deals. The Blue Jackets seem heavy on the culture they want to have, especially embued within Sillinger, Jenner and Gudbranson, but that might mean CBJ just keeps it. I really like prospects in Benson, obviously, but I think Konsta Helenius and Jiri Kulich also have the kind of competitiveness that makes them attractive as well. Alex Tuch could fit, Owen Power and JJ Peterka are incredible offensive players who I think could ultimately fit, but it’s unclear how Buffalo will value culture and whether CBJ thinks it’s time to leverage that “surplus”.
There are plenty of secondary players that can help the Blue Jackets in the short term via UFA. Most likely they are paid too much for too long but the Blue Jackets should feel comfortable targetting players like Gustav Nyquist, Andrew Mangiapane, Reilly Smith and Pius Suter for their defensive impact. They’ll likely simply fortify the bottom six, though Suter has been giving excellent matchup impact for years, but that’s something the Blue Jackets could use.
The More Conservative Proposal
I’ll admit here, this hasn’t been a trivial exercise. I wonder if it’s because I’m too deep in the data, mentally fatigued from renovating/moving/writing the targets lists or because there are so few obvious sellers and so many teams trying to accomplish the same objectives. I also just can’t get a read on what Don Waddell wants to give up and where he feels the Blue Jackets are in their trajectory.
A “building” team, the Blue Jackets are picking in the mushy middle which means, outside of excellent drafting and development, they’re unlikely to add players who elevate the team’s ceiling in a Fantilli competitive window. Similarly, they have often named veterans like Boone Jenner and Erik Gudbranson on expiring deals but who both fit the mold that it seems like Waddell wants to push the Blue Jackets towards. I saw excellent pushback from Kent Johnson and Zach Werenski late in the season but if that’s a cultural thing and not something fully ingrained, it might behoove the Blue Jackets to give them another year to incorporate that into their DNA.
As much as I’d love to get creative and have some fun, constraints are important for these types of exercise. It’s great to say I would improve the roster by trading Erik Gudbranson or selling Boone Jenner for an excellent prospect but if Don Waddell would never do that we’re impairing our ability to operate within those confines and still search for the best moves.
It appears that some of these moves are on the horizon, perhaps Fabbro being signed longer term. I would like to go shorter on him and keep the long term flexibility but I’m sure there’s a low enough number that a 6 year deal makes sense. If he continues to work very well next to Werenski, or if his skating was impaired by injury this past season, it could just work regardless.
I went short term on Voronkov as a sort of developmental carrot. Waddell has suggested that they need to see conditioning improvement from him, which is something I highly agree with. Perhaps the Blue Jackets leave big value on the table by doing so, but if I need to see some critical improvement I can’t justify going longer on a contract. He’s 24, so super long term deals are out of the question anyway.
The move wherein I have allowed the most departure from what I think Waddell would do is moving Cole Sillinger. To be honest, I think I’m a bit too fixated on Josh Doan but I really don’t see good long-term fits elsewhere on the marketplace. He doesn’t stand out as a “top six” forward that Waddell has professed to want but he’s certainly a middle-six that could grow into a complementary player. If this could be Zach Benson somehow, I’d be willing to chase that angle with #14 and perhaps something else too.
Utah is hard to trade with. I think this trade works because it gives Utah a C, or someone they can sell as a center, who has some physical acumen and combativeness. They exchange Josh Doan for a look at another asset and don’t mind losing him because they’re looking to integrate Danill But onto the roster, I presume. Perhaps they’d rather move on from Nick Schmaltz but I don’t know that the Blue Jackets move Sillinger for someone who lacks fire and isn’t under long term control.
I think there’s potential for a huge deal with Utah, they need to carve space on RD, maybe don’t like Schmaltz and have some good prospects to integrate in short order (But, Iginla, 4OA). Maybe they like Merzlikins as a platoon with Vejmelka. The Blue Jackets would love Durzi, or Kesselring lower in the lineup, they have room for Schmaltz as a complement in the top six, they’d love Josh Doan as well.
K’Andre Miller might be a bit off in value, though I can’t say I’m sure. I think Provorov’s asset rights, which would guarantee more time to negotiate away from the market, could be a mildly attractive offer if the Rangers want to move KAM and am soft-including them in here. They’ll need to find something on the left side, especially to play with Adam Fox, and it sounds like they’ll be checking in on Provorov anyway.
This puts the depth chart here. I like the roster and think it has plenty of potential to move up and down. In particular, I think a Kent Johnson-Sean Monahan-Josh Doan line could yield fruit as a competitive and balanced second line.
On this roster, I’m keeping Yegor Chinakhov who I think might be the most tradeable asset but one that I think could explode in value and fit a lot of needs for the Blue Jackets should he have a healthy season. He’d be a stellar fit as a puck carrier alongside the netfront oriented Jenner and Doan and I think a good fit on a matchup line.
I’m also not clearing out Damon Severson or Erik Gudbranson though I’d certainly like to. If those are moved, I think Jordan Spence is a target I’d still be heavily interested in, perhaps Chinakhov is part of that package. Pairing Werenski and Miller with Spence and Fabbro sounds perfect. The lineup does get a bit difficult, as I assume an NHL head coach won’t deploy Spence with Mateychuk at the same time.
Gustab Nyquist is signed on a two year deal to bridge the potential of moving on from Jenner and Gudbranson and maintaining a veteran presence. We know he’s a mix of skill and competitiveness and he’s had success high in a lineup as recently as two seasons ago. Though I’m not sure he’s a dominant netfront or small space presence, I think he’d like Johnson and Fantilli together well without slowing them down. He was also a good penalty killer last season, which is something not to be forgotten.
In this scenario, Fantilli and Johnson are likely both moved to the top powerplay which means Kent Johnson is moved off his really good side on the half wall. Perhaps the general orientation is changed which means Johnson and Marchenko get to overlap and play through that side with Fantilli as a weakside shooting threat. Perhaps Doan finds a way onto the top unit and Fantilli and Voronkov play together on the second unit.
There’s room for upgrading on the fourth line. I don’t particularly think Luca Del Bel Belluz or Zach Aston-Reese warrant that position guaranteed. Perhaps there’s an interesting depth piece in Nate Bastian or something else for Don to find as a low value plug.
Though I can’t include these types of deals here, and as much as I have budgeted for flexibility, I think this means a Jenner extension. He’d be at a slight upgrade, and I’d hope Waddell would lean heavily on shorter term, but there’s opportunity to reward the captain and help the team out before major extensions come into play.
Adam Fantilli’s extension is certainly possible, but I’d try to wait to see what he looks like come November. If he signs something that starts with $8 million, you probably just have to take that bet. I don’t think he can make more than Werenski but I’d really like to see some better play driving before ponying up too big.
The Seismic Shakeup
This one is a little more fantasy. I restrained myself a little bit here, to be honest, and had some more unhinged trades on the line before deleting them because I just can’t be sure (moving Jenner and Gudbranson to Buffalo to fix their culture). In any case, I’ve also walked back acquiring Josh Doan because I just find it hard to fit him within Utah’s window though I think this lineup has the capacity to integrate Mattias Maccelli which would be a huge value pick.
The most noticeable move is Kent Johnson to Chicago for 3OA. I have added Chinakhov to the deal primarily because Chicago wants to be the fastest team and they might need some wing support on their roster. I don’t know that they want Kent Johnson but he was really good this past season and projects to fit incredibly well alongside Connor Bedard at least on the powerplay. They’re longtime friends and this is across divisions which helps. Kent Johnson does not have jam and neither does Nazar or Oliver Moore but maybe they like his already PP driving and the potential for a long term high level partnership.
The Blue Jackets deal their defense prospect glut for a mediocre pick, I can honestly take or leave it, but they’ve got plenty stashed in the NCAA on the way. Pageau is acquired to be a medium term matchup center via a diversified Waddell-like acquisition. He only has 1 year left on his contract but Waddell hopes his being only 32 carves out some room for a longer term fit. He offers a host of risky prospects, Guillame Richard as a stable defensive LD and a 2nd round pick to make up for the ceiling lacking.
K’Andre Miller is acquired in exchange for smooth skating Daemon Hunt, the rights to Ivan Provorov and a 1st to 2nd trade up that should be valued at a late 1st according to the GSVA chart. I think NYR prefers this primarily because they get a better asset and than CBJ’s 20th, but I can’t really say for sure.
Critically, CBJ keep the Minnesota pick. I can’t say this was my intention but I can’t really see more wheeling and dealing than this. Maybe it means 20th can be moved for an Alex Tuch, a better right handed defenseman or something but for now maybe I keep it as ammunition.
Here’s the roster. It has some problems, I suppose, in that Fantilli is playing with entirely new players. I think Duchene and Nyquist are well aligned to help him play the style he wants and orient him as the “main character” of the line.
The primary objective of this exercise and why I showed some restraint, was in moving the Blue Jackets toward a “florida style” system and in keeping prospects and players that align with that idea. That means Jenner and Gudbranson still have roles, as does Cole Sillinger. They’re insured by the Pageau addition.
If this Pageau trade is fanciful, and I think it might be, the Blue Jackets could look to Pius Suter to bridge a similar gap. That would make extending Jenner more of a priority, Suter is poor in the faceoff dot, or Sillinger’s growth more crucial.
I haven’t spend much time or energy on the fourth line, primarily because I like leaving these sorts of slots open for anyone that might come along. They’re a good place to stash failed bids, to break in new players or to take advantage of late-summer roster motion.
This roster still doesn’t have an idea defense corps but it has added K’Andre Miller and Nate Schmidt quite intentionally. Gudbranson moves up, which isn’t good, but Schmidt arrives to with off-side expertise to help ease Mateychuk into that style. Perhaps he needs to get paid more to join the Blue Jackets, or perhaps he needs a longer term deal, but I think it can work.
Damon Severson is still on the roster but scratched. He could be potential fodder or could be pushed out with this approach but I think he could also find a place alongside Werenski on the top pair to rehab his value. Schmidt probably doesn’t sign without a guaranteed role so maybe Gudbranson is a trade chip as well.
The idea of this defense isn’t necessarily to improve it in one go but to prepare it for the future as well.
I’ve done nothing about the goaltending again. I would move Merzlikins to be sure but outside of taking a gargantuan swing at Juuse Saros or Jeremy Swayman, I fail to see how it all works. Jet Greaves should get a shot but also shouldn’t be a full time starter for the entire season (unless he just continually plays that good.)
This right here is the “point” of this offseason approach. I’ve “signed” the prospects in hopes of showing their presence as future pieces and not as a move with intention. Porter Martone, drafted with Chicago’s pick, and Cayden Lindstrom will join the team in short order. I would project Martone to be sure in 2026-27 but Lindstrom remains to be seen. If he has a big year, both could be dropping into the lineup which means Duchene, Jenner, Nyquist, Sillinger or even Pageau are bumped to new positions to make room.
Now, CBJ is prepared to be a heavy roster but with still more players to add to the lineup. Elick and Marrelli aren’t shortlisted for the roster soon by any means but they’ll be counted on to fill in as Fabbro, Schmidt or Severson are leaving the team. This means Mateychuk will probably move to the right side of either K’Andre Miller or Zach Werenski, something I think he’ll be excellent at doing (it might mean he’s less involved but if he’s that good he can still command his own pair).
Gavin Brindley and James Malatesta, without mentioning the potential CBJ 20th overall and acquired 2nd round pick, would be positioned to join the second wave. They’re both small but the above roster doesn’t have any undersized players. They’re also both intensely competitive.
Without the Kent Johnson for 3OA trade, this proposal has little merit. While I’d be devastated to see Kent Johnson go, I’d be quite optimistic about the trajectory of the franchise should Zach Werenski see the vision and sign on for the extra year or two it might take to break in the new youth.
Wrap Up
This brings about the end of the offseason Armchair GM series. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, it’s been an interesting look at the availability of players this offseason. As the summer matures, more and more rumors heat up. Waddell keeps professing to be aggressive and I can only hope we have some fun and positive deals to look forward to. Privately, I worry that Waddell is going to balk at some of the prices and misjudge the market the way he did for retention this past offseason.
In the recent Portzline piece, he did say “players are available” which is at the least very intriguing to me. I fear that Mr. Portzline has fallen for the Florida is good because they cheat angle, rather than the Sunny Mehta and Bill Zito get really good players and have brought innovation to the use of defensemen and strong wing play (their penalty toe-ing is interesting, but not as interesting as how all of their players have physical intelligence and know how to manipulate bodies for time and space), but it is what it is. I think the Panthers have found their market inefficiency, good players don’t necessarily skate fast but understand the above body work and also defending away from your zone is crucial but integrating defensemen is even moreso. It’s up to Don Waddell not just to build a copycat but to find his own market inefficiency and exploit it for a Blue Jacket Stanley Cup.
The goal, when doing all of this really, is for deep looks and examination so I can understand the NHL better. There are so many complex and moving parts that if we remain on the surface, we’ll probably come to some faulty conclusions or complain about things that were probably decent enough decisions at the time.
Whether it’s armchair GMing or tracking projects or diving into analytics, each breakdown or report helps me learn something a little more. I can’t say that what I’m writing and looking into is for everyone but it’s at least extremely helpful to me on my learning journey. Anyone else who gets something out of it is just a bonus for now.
I can’t say what’s in store for the rest of the summer, having just moved into the new house and finding myself in need of some mental and physical relaxation, but I don’t think I’ll be signing off quite yet. There’s some film room work on Adam Fantilli, maybe Kent Johnson, and maybe more to learn from the Florida Panthers both in terms of forecheck and powerplay.
I’ll probably be around for some spot work as the draft and Waddell deals come through but might have more to publish on my journey of integrating hand-tracked data with public PxP.