Armchair GM: Priority Targets for Defense

Primer

This is the fourth in the Armchair GM 2025 Offseason Series. We have now covered the whats, whys and showed the who of various skills and roles surrounding players that CBJ could acquire to move forward toward the objective of winning a Stanley Cup.

Armchair GM: Comparing CBJ to Cup Winners

Armchair GM: Projecting the Roster for Acquisition Role Fits

Armchair GM: Defense and Forward Market Analysis

Now, I’ll dive deep, using the market analysis, on specific targets and the logic of their acquisitions for defensemen this upcoming offseason. These will represent primarily my opinions as an analyst and isn’t intender to serve as an all-encompassing look. If you want contract information and specific fits, this is the place to look!

If you agree, disagree or think there’s anyone I missed, let me know! Theorycrafting and armchairing is always better when it’s collaborative.

Defense Acquisition Objectives

1. Get Better Players

2. Mine Future Stars

Simple as that, the Blue Jackets have a ton of directions to improve.

1. Second Pairing Defense Support (Either Offense or Defense)

   1. Matchup Defense

   2. Offensive/Puck Moving Impact to help Middle-Six Forward Lines

2. Upgrade the Skating of the Defense, Especially Neutral Zone Defending

3. Werenski Partner if Fabbro Isn’t Signed

The Targets

Owen Power - LD

Contract: $8.35m x 6 years

Look, I know I said that improving the neutral zone killing and rush defense is one of the most important aspects for the Blue Jackets and Owen Power is indeed among the worst neutral zone defenders in the A3Z data set. Still, I think Power remains the highest impact option potentially available.

If the team is okay with having Provorov in the lineup because he munches minutes, why not take a similarly flawed rush defender who has somehow better penalty killing metrics and is a top of the league playmaker?

His puck-moving has stayed consistent these past few seasons and he remains one of the most influential passers from the D position in the sport. He’s only 21, (now 22) he has great penalty killing metrics and he has already signed a contract.

Power is a frustrating defenseman at times, being soft while gargantuan and somewhat poor defensively, but I have no doubt his strengths will overcome those weaknesses.

Buffalo is overloaded with left handed defensemen, didn’t make substantial front office or coaching changes, and the tea leaves suggest there’s some smoke about Owen Power being on the trade block. If I were them, I’d move on from Bowen Byram, but if this player is available I believe the Blue Jackets should be interested in winning his acquisition.

Not only is he good, young and relatively cheap (contract wise) but I think he, along with Werenski and Mateychuk, would give the Blue Jackets uniquely proficient defensemen at joining the offense. Is this tendency and skillset leveragable to create a market advantage? I think so.

The front office would have a clear idea of what they need from the right side, though it’s not easy to fill that skillset, and their d corps may end up looking a lot like Dallas’. Werenski isn’t Heiskanen, he’s much more like Harley, but I see plenty of room for it to work.

In fact, Power could even work as a puck moving force alongside Zach Werenski. Leaning on Werenski’s better netural zone defending and in-zone dispossession techniques while also allowing him to sprint up-ice and down in the zone for shooting opportunities. Maybe even allows Werenski to work off-wing in search of better creation opportunities. It’s not how I would deploy it but it does give the Blue Jackets a “nuclear” option when searching for offense.

Noah Dobson - RD

EH Projected Contract: $9.3m x 7 years (if signing with different team)

The New York Islanders have a new GM and I now have a hard time seeing him move (primarily because new GMs typically want to gather information in person) but maybe it means the opposite.

(I wrote this breakdown before Mathieu Darche was named GM. Given that he’s from Tampa, I assume he’s smart and not interested in letting Dobson walk.)

Dobson has, historically, some excellent defensive metrics (but inside a heavily defense-first system) but has a propensity for costly gaffes. That said, a young player with some quite interesting Werenski-complementary habits (defending from the net-front out and excellent work on retrievals) might mean he’s the best all-around addition the Blue Jackets can make.

His offensive ceiling is very high, evidenced by his 70 point production a season ago, and his puck moving is sterling. His skating might not meet the strict Evason and Waddell criteria but he’s not a slouch either and has the rest of the game to compensate for it.

Perhaps critically, outside of acquisition cost from a new GM, Dobson doesn’t project to fill the roles of Theodore and Montour from a contract value perspective (the primary reason I am not even including Bouchard as a target, though he is very good). Not everything has to be done the same but perhaps the Blue Jackets can roll up their sleeves and find some true breakout stars.

If they can acquire him and find a contract ask that works for the medium-term, perhaps it’s even better. (Dean Evason is currently coaching him at the World Championships where he’s getting plenty of ice time with Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli as well).

Vladislav Gavrikov - LD

EH Projected Contract: $5.6m x 4yr

Gavrikov, for now, is a UFA. Would he welcome a return to Columbus? Word is he’d re-sign with LA but now they have a new GM as well. Further word on the street is that he’s getting paid >$7 million AAV as well. The cap explosion is going to shatter projection models until they can catch up. That said, is he really worth more than Jaccob Slavin? Defensive impact doesn’t usually get paid.

The Blue Jackets could offer him an astronomical amount of money on the short term and might even be well positioned to tolerate a long(ish) term contract. He played both sides of the ice this season and could even serve as a Werenski or Mateychuk partner. He’s got absolutely fantastic off-ice vibes and would be a locker room treat alongside Voronkov and Marchenko to say the least.

If he makes it to UFA, there’s a strong angle for his re-acquisition and righting of the wrongs made by his departure in the first place (selling him at the TDL was a good idea but not if spending the assets on Provorov was the eventuality).

Adam Pelech - LD

Contract: $5.75m x 4 years

These two represent the most impactful possible additions from a role and position fit for the Blue Jackets. If Waddell wants a shutdown pair, each has been a concrete anchor on such a pair for a long time. There’s no doubt they would succeed, they both featured as both movers and killers. Among the best playdrivers from the position in the league.

Pelech, on the other hand, is under contract for the New York Islanders. Does a new GM want to rebuild? Would they want futures? His No Trade Clause is reduced to a 16 team no trade list on July 1. Like Gavrikov, though, Pelech is 30. He’d be a strong bridge veteran but only in the best case scenario does he directly contribute to a strong contention window. Does his acquisition cost then preclude his inclusion?

Jordan Spence - RD and Brandt Clarke - RD

Contracts: $1.5m x 1 year, $863k x 1 year (ELC)

Two young analytics darling right handed defensemen from the Los Angeles Kings. Both with limited ice-time as the Kings crashed out once again against the Edmonton Oilers. Both have some doubt in terms of skating and neither is risk free.

Both are different defensemen, both weren’t trusted on the LA Kings and performed in highly sheltered environments. Spence has put up some sterling defensive results and is a strong puck-mover and retriever, or at least has been on LA Kings teams of the past. He’s undersized but there’s reason to believe he has the defensive acumen to play well above his size. His first season with LA wasn’t as sheltered, partnered with Olli Maataa, and his underlying metrics looked just as good.

What I like about Spence is that he’s specifically very good at the Efficiency portion of the passing metrics which is something the Blue Jackets certainly lack. While his size precludes him from being a long-term Mateychuk partner, which poses some deployment rigidity issues, there’s certainly a world where he is a long-term Werenski partner.

Brandt Clarke, on the other hand, is a wildly creative offensive defenseman. He has a preternatural sense for offensive opportunities but hasn’t been able to earn a coach’s trust. His skating is funky but not necessarily outright poor. He isn’t strong, and isn’t mistake free, so it’s difficult to see him as a natural fit on a team that doesn’t like Damon Severson either.

Given the orgs’ moving on from Jiricek quickly, I am not sure they would agree that this is a player who should be added. Still, in the mold of a Montour or Theodore (who are also great skaters) he might represent a good bet for undervalued offense first d-man.

Michael Kesselring - RD

Contract: $1.4 m x 1 year

Kesselring could be a part of a larger deal between the Blue Jackets and newly named Utah Mammoth considering just how many of their players fit theoretical holes on the Blue Jackets. In fact, he might be one of the most likely player to actually be traded considering the desire for Utah to improve and their impending integration of prospects.

He, like Power, is big, not bruising and also not necessarily a good neutral zone defensemen. That said, he would very much be a Werenski-lite, offering the CBJ middle-six a defensemen with great vision who can transform the rush attack with weak-side speed. I think he carries the puck too much (which I think results in his efficiency being low) and sometimes makes rush offense hard to play for his forwards, but there’s no reason working with Werenski couldn’t make him better in that regard. He already has the passing and vision to make it work, he just has to deploy it better.

He’s an excellent skater with size who is a good puck-retriever. In an Evason system, perhaps he even brings rush excellence to the fold and becomes a great second pairing defenseman, his xGA suppression already looking good enough.

This is a major target for the Blue Jackets the only weakness being that he has a small cap-hit and a cap-pressed team (of the few that exist) might have the desire to pay more. Utah winning the lottery might have undermined one of the few angles CBJ had to offer Utah something they want (Cole Sillinger?). Maybe, given his potential surplus, Utah isn’t upset about liquidating him for currency.

Sam Malinski - RD

EH Contract Projection: $3m x 3 year

Sam Malinski played, primarily, on a sheltered third pairing for the Colorado Avalanche. He stepped up in the playoffs and very much looks like a good right handed puck mover. His penalty killing metrics were pretty good but he certainly didn’t get the primary matchups.

All told, not a bad budget addition but one that might be hard to definitively fit in the Blue Jackets roster given who is already under contract and considering his relative inexperience at an older age. The value play for the Blue Jackets would likely be to elevate Severson and hope he simplifies his game.

Malinski performed well in the playoffs and his habits developed in the Avalanche system would be very effective. I can’t comfortably project him to be a Werenski partner, which is why space on the third pair as a fallback option would be preferential for so many of these acquisitions, but he could certainly bring skating.

Kevin Bahl

Kevin Bahl is a huge, left handed defensemen on the Calgary Flames with really good Killer metrics. I don’t know that he’s a guaranteed fit on a shutdown pairing but he played 33% of his minutes against elite competition. He’d need a puck-mover on the right side which could be Dante Fabbro.

In Damon Severson’s final season with New Jersey, he and Bahl formed a dominant third pairing. It wouldn’t be a great look for the Blue Jackets to bring back a third pair and play them up the lineup but perhaps there’s some way to make it work.

Declan Chisholm

Chisholm, a left handed defenseman, found a role on the Minnesota Wild after they traded for David Jiricek and the team succumbed to further injuries to their D corps. Based on the data we have, he was both an excellent killer and an excellent puckmover. He didn’t play against elite competition, and often with Jared Spurgeon, so there’s a lot of room to doubt some of the accuracy of his metrics.

He didn’t penalty kill that often, and the Blue Jackets traded for Daemon Hunt over him, so it’s unlikely the ultimately view him as a worthwhile breakout pick.

Adam Wilsby

Wilsby was a revelation for the putrid Nashville Predators. His ultimate sample was small but his metrics fantastic. This would be a massive bet, but he’s got the skating and simplicity to grow into a greator role. He did indeed penalty kill and his short term defensive results were simply outstanding.

Big Name RFAs

• K’Andre Miller

• Dylan Samberg

• Mason Lohrei

• Bowen Byram

Each of these players are also expiring RFAs and could theoretically be targets. Ultimately, I suspect each of their teams will value what they bring too highly for the Blue Jackets to pursue. That said, it’s possible any one shakes loose.

Dylan Samberg is poised to be an anchor on a shutdown pair and an important part of Winnipeg moving forward but I guess you never know. He’d be a great fit for the Blue Jackets.

K’Andre Miller has posted elite neutral zone killing results previously, though poor ones this last season, and has the jump and shooting to fit perfectly in an Evason system. I imagine new coach Mike Sullivan will want a crack with him on the roster but their cap situation isn’t great and it’s possible he can be had. He’s had some struggles in the defensive zone but it’s easy to see him working like a better Niko Mikkola in the right environment.

Mason Lohrei is the youngest, riskiest but also highest ceiling. He’s a smooth passer with plenty of homeplate attacking potential but might not be good enough defensively for the Blue Jackets to make the move on this season. That might be exactly why Boston decides to move him. If the Blue Jackets find a Werenski partner, or put Severson there, Fabbro would then make a good option to slide next to him.

Bowen Byram is a mystifying player. He should be regarded as largely an explosive offensive activator who doesn’t have the physicality or wall-skills to drive play. His offensive numbers might look interesting, but he was often paired with one of the league’s best defensemen in Rasmus Dahlin. He flashed tantalizing potential by playing top-pair minutes on the way to a Stanley Cup win but he hasn’t been good since then and has spooky concussion history. He’s on the trade block and it appears for good reason.

Bargain Bin UFA Shutdown Shopping

Brian Dumoulin is a player who, should the Blue Jackets balk at Provorov’s final asking price, has recent success as a defensive defenseman and, though he may not be a good bet to improve, might replace Provorov at a bit of a discount. His underlying metrics are variable but he stepped up in the playoffs on a depleted Devils defense corps and that might be a worthwhile bet that enables the Blue Jackets to take risks elsewhere.

Dmitry Orlov, the high dollar short term bet Waddell made for Carolina, has an expiring contract. His performance was up and down over the season but he is an activator who could be an in-a-pinch replacement for what Provorov brings. His playoffs have been quite poor.

Derek Forbort is a true stay at home defenseman. If the Blue Jackets are nervous about moving on from Provorov without a PK presence, this veteran LD can fill in. He’s not necessarily going to provide withs with his 5v5 play but he can play the net-front and perhaps be floated by a better partner.

Joel Hanley; he’s undersized, old (33yo) and hasn’t stuck with a team over the last two years but his defensive metrics have been very good for quite some time. He wasn’t sheltered in Calgary but he did play with MacKenzie Weegar which is it’s own type of distortion (he’s a good play driver). Is he better than just betting on Daemon Hunt or Jake Christiansen again? I can’t say but he might be a #6 D who is okay with some AHL time should those young D outcompete him.

Young Upside Bets

Wyatt Kaiser looks like he could potentially be a very solid defensemen who would fit the Blue Jackets’ system well. He looked good in a putrid Blackhawks environment and could be a great breakout bet. Does he do anything that Daemon Hunt doesn’t? I don’t know. Not an easy bet to make for the Blue Jackets considering they already have Werenski and likely want more certainty if they’re taking Mateychuk minutes (he’s not all that big either which might make the left hand side too small for an NHL GM or NHL Head Coach).

Kaeden Korczak is a young right handed defenseman for the Vegas Golden Knights. I think he remains a good target and he even had good defensive metrics. He’s a good skater with fluid pivots and good slot protection habits. He didn’t play much in the playoffs and doesn’t have much of a penalty killing record. He’d have to start down the lineup, but he looks like he could be an interesting shutdown defenseman. I’d feel more comfortable acquiring him if the Blue Jackets had space he could play that’s more similar to his role on Vegas. Right now, that’s occupied by Erik Gudbranson so it seems like he’d have to be top four or bust.

Prospects

It’s worth mentioning that the Blue Jackets can always simply make their 1st round picks. I don’t see any defensemen worth jumping to the table for though Jackson Smith and Kashawn Aitcheson certainly have reasons for excitement and Jacob Rombach looks like a potential secound round (late first? considering the class) defensive anchor who I’d be interested in trading down for. Drafting defensemen in the first round is a tough sell, especially if you’re looking for defense first, primarily because this skill takes longer to develop (which means spending an asset for a potential payout at a less predictable future timeframe is devalued) and is more readily available elsewhere.

If the Blue Jackets make the selection, it’s possible that this player wouldn’t join until Fantilli’s prime has started and the Blue Jackets might have to suffer through growing pains in an important window. They could be served, then, by trading for prospects with a little more certainty and who are closer to making an impact.

Sam Rinzel would only be available for a monstrous trade package from the Chicago Blackhawks but he might just be the best possible young right handed defensemen that could be added. He looked like a good defender and a daring play creator in his limited stint with the Blackhawks at the end of the season. They already have Levshunov, Korchinski and Vlasic, maybe they’re willing to deal for some Bedard support?

Beau Akey is an incredible skating right handed defenseman currently playing for the Barrie Colts but drafted by Edmonton. He’s a good look for a prospect closer to the NHL than either of the Blue Jackets picks will be. That said, it would be a tremendous bet to make with a high value pick. If there’s a bigger trade, he would be a good target.

Ryan Chesley is a potential shutdown defensemen who just left the University of Minnesota. He’s further along than Charlie Elick or Luca Marrelli but as current property of the Washington Capitals might be a tough deal to swing.

Tristan Luneau, a right handed defensemen in the Anaheim Ducks system, looks like he could be an excellent under the radar bet. The Ducks have far too many defensemen in their system, with Solberg already knocking on the door, and he could slip through. He’s a little risky but he’s eager to make an impact.

Tom Willander, now recently signed by the Vancouver Canucks, would be the ultimate get in any trade made with the team. He was drafted too high, in my opinion, but is an excellent skater and neutral zone defender. He played for a good college program and is a good bet to grow into a shutdown role.

Stian Solberg, a left handed defenseman in the Ducks org, would be pretty much a perfect fit to drop onto the second pair from a role fit perspective (he’s probably an ideal outcome of Kashawn Aitcheson). He’s aggressive, fearless and incredibly physical. In the recent World Championships, he dropped a hat trick against the USA. I don’t see Anaheim moving him but you never know.

CBJ In-House Prospects

Charlie Elick and Luca Marrelli are the most recent Blue Jackets drafted defensemen. When considering making additions to the roster, it’s worth acknowledging their potential. Elick, especially, fits the mold of a shutdown defenseman drafted in the early second and it’s likely that the Blue Jackets will remain big fans with such important capital invested.

Elick has been up and down and is an unusual player. What he does reliably is bring physicality and good skating, evidenced especially by his Board Battles Won. Worst case scenario he gets to battles on time and has the size and strength to stop cycles.

His data is outstanding and his small sample grades him out as one of the best defensive players in Junior. His puck moving out of his zone is great which might position him well as a last-back or more stay-at-home defenseman. Whether he has the fundamental skills, namely puckhandling, to succeed at the NHL level above the third pair remains to be seen.

Marrelli has had a fantastic breakout season for the Oshawa Generals. I’ll be looking to diver deeper into his performance shortly but in the small windows I’ve seen he looks like a really smart player. He has ideas in real time, executes them and is always ready to find a small pass. It looks like he’s been more aggressive in getting up ice this year oftentimes forming the third player or taking on center duties in transition. He’ll need to own retrievals and find an angle for defensive impact if he’s going to make the NHL but scoring a ton of points at least positions him as an upgraded asset.

Wrap Up

I really hope the Blue Jackets can find one or two exciting defense additions. Best case scenario is air-dropping a medium term Vladislav Gavrikov and making a bet on a young right handed defenseman, full second pair from LA with Clarke/Spence?, but a really exciting major deal for a player like Owen Power, Noah Dobson or Sam Rinzel would be equally fun.

Next up, forward targets!