Armchair GM: Defense and Forward Market Analysis
Highlighting the Skills of Potentially Available Players as it Relates to CBJ Needs/Wants
Primer
This breakdown is the third in a series that intends to look into the state of the current team, forecast potential for growth and identify potential offseason acquisitions by position group.
Up to this point I’ve highlighted the players recent performance as it relates to players on Cup Winners and also dove into the line construction philosophy, deployment tendencies and stylistic asks of Dean Evason as it relates to specific players/combinations.
Now, we have a small idea of what the Blue Jackets want in an ideal scenario but we don’t know how those wants move relative to the marketplace in which they can acquire said wants.
The metrics by which I chose to evaluate and display the market are fallible, limited and yet intentionally chosen. If I haven’t yet written about the theory of using said metrics, I will go into detail when I talk about specific targets. It will also be important to consider both acquisition and payroll cost but I find those difficult to express relative to ultimate value.
Perhaps if I had a value vs salary projection model, as Dom does, and could compare theoretical projected value vs projected salary or acquisition cost I use some actual cap calculus to spotlight specific acquisition targets.
This will be mostly a pretty dry and data focused article( bookmark it if you’d like to explore the interactive vizzes closer to free agency or the draft). analysis and targets to follow!
Acquisition Objectives
Get Better Players
Mine Future Stars
Simple as that, the Blue Jackets have a ton of directions to improve.
Second Pairing Defense Support (Either Offense or Defense)
Matchup Defense
Offensive/Puck Moving Impact to help Middle-Six Forward Lines
Upgrade the Skating of the Defense, Especially Neutral Zone Defending
Werenski Partner if Fabbro Isn’t Signed
Improve Defensive Ability of Forwards
Push Jenner to Third Pair
Push Sillinger for Fourth Line or Wing
Find Matchup Line Anchor
Find a Top Six Forward who;
Can Connect Passes and Enhance the in-possession play of Fantilli and KJ
Can Create Net-Front Playmaking on the PP (ideally Right Shot)
Remain Open to a Player who Could Thrive Alongside Monahan-Marchenko
Goaltending?
Jet Greaves is Tandem Caliber At Least
Veterans? Bona-Fide Starter? Keep Merzlikins?
The Offseason Market
Thanks for sticking with me thus far, I think it’s important to build a base of ideas and roles before we get into who is available or who should fit. This isn’t an easy offseason for a variety of reasons.
The Blue Jackets are putting hefty assets into play.
They have astronomical cap room which is both a blessing and a curse.
There’s been a lot of coaching and GM turnover across the league which can result in holding patterns for theoretically available assets.
Cap explosion.
Because of this volatility, I have a hard time narrowing the search too much. Additionally, it’s hard to place what other teams might or might not want vs what the Blue Jackets have. Normally, it’s easier to understand which team might want what and who might want futures vs current players.
The Blue Jackets want to move picks for upgrades, as do the Penguins, as do the Flyers, as do the Sabres…. it goes on. Though I believe the Blue Jackets have a surplus of grit and veterancy in key areas, I don’t really believe Don Waddell is willing to trade that strength for strength elsewhere. Who knows.
I believe the Blue Jackets should try to find stars. Likely, that’s one forward unless Waddell wheels and deals, and likely one defensemen. Additional moves around the edges make the most sense but the best thing to do is find a single move that checks the most boxes and check the remaining ones with value plays.
The ultimate acquisition strategy will be in adding players at or before the draft. If the Blue Jackets miss on those targets, or make those picks with players they really like, that might change how they approach free agency. Largely, there’s a big number of forward fits who could fill roles that should be available in free agency. They may be signed between now and the draft, so that could change the calculation.
I think forwards make the most sense, and perhaps are the easiest to understand and evaluate with public data, but since Waddell wants to address the defense lets start there.
The Defense Market
In evaluating the market, I will resort to a couple of shorthand techniques to illustrate the players’ relative skills.
I have graphed all players of an adequate sample for each metric. The dot size is indicative of how often they played against top competition (TOI% Against Elites via PuckIQ), a shorthand representation of whether or not they were sheltered.
The bigger the dot, the more likely they can hold down a strong role when changing teams or at the very least they can do it against the best in the NHL. Sometimes, you just want performance, sometimes you need to know the performance can happen against the best.
The dot color represents their upcoming status, though that could change, with the dark blue representing Blue Jackets. “Trade” colored targets are largely populated by my opinion on who could “theoretically” be available. Really, they are most likely considered targets who could only be acquired via trade.
What is, sadly, hidden is the ultimate sample size of the tracked data. Some of these players are going to have more games tracked which means their skills are more verified than others. In the case of defensemen who were on multiple teams, their highest TOI sample of A3Z tracked data was the one included.
Defense Acquisition Objectives
Get Better Players
Mine Future Stars
Simple as that, the Blue Jackets have a ton of directions to improve.
Second Pairing Defense Support (Either Offense or Defense)
Matchup Defense
Offensive/Puck Moving Impact to help Middle-Six Forward Lines
Upgrade the Skating of the Defense, Especially Neutral Zone Defending
Werenski Partner if Fabbro Isn’t Signed
In order to evaluate the Movers, I’ll pair two metrics that I am quite fond of and I believe are illustrative of the examples at play. The first is a free tool created by Louis Boulet at LB-Hockey.com. It’s a high level statistical analysis of passing data from AllThreeZones, including some background passing that isn’t visualized on the website. It is comprised of four different methods of network analysis, each with different implications on the style of passing from a given method.
I will use his all-in-one passing metric expressed in percentiles that measures how important a players’ passing is to the rest of the team’s offense. What this means, partially because of the nature of this analysis, is that the impacts relative to eachother may be obscured. This is a ranking and not necessarily an expression of ultimate value. It should serve well for this purpose but hopefully the standard deviation bars relative to other metrics helps express the issue.
The other metrics is an oft-used one, RAPM Corsi Differential. This comes from Evolving Hockey and seeks to filter out a players deployment from their on-ice impacts. Generally, puck-moving is associated with shot differential play driving (at least as a pattern that I have noticed by following the data through the years), so don’t be surprised at the obvious relationship.
The metric passes the sniff test primarily because it positions Werenski as not just one of the best defensemen but one of the most important players for teammate offense in the league. The team flowed through Werenski, this data expresses it and puts to numbers Werenski’s case for MVP.
Standouts:
Puck-Moving Play-Drivers:
UFA: Vladislav Gavrikov, Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov, Tony DeAngelo, Aaron Ekblad, Nick Perbix
RFA: Evan Bouchard, Dylan Samberg, Noah Dobson, Luke Hughes, Sam Malinski, Declan Chisholm
Trades: Owen Power, Mackenzie Weegar, Sam Girard, Michael Kesselring, Jordan Spence, Adam Pelech, Brandt Clarke
Puck-Movers:
UFA: Haydn Fleury, Matt Grzelcyk
RFA: Bowen Byram, Alexander Romanov, Mason Lohrei, K’Andre Miller, Scott Perunovich, Cam York, Zac Jones
Trades: Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Andersson, Sean Durzi, JJ Moser
Play-Drivers:
UFA: Nate Schmidt, Henri Jokiharju
RFA: Nils Lundkvist, Conor Timmins, Jayden Struble, Wyatt Kaiser
Trades: Rasmus Ristolainen, Egor Zamula, John Marino
The next set of metrics, the “killers”, is comprised of metrics we’ve already worked with. This is designed to demonstrate players who suppress shots near the net (RAPM xGA) and players who prevent rush offense against (Entry Defense Gamescore).
Considering the likelihood of true rush offense turning into high xGA shots, but perhaps not the highest xGA shots, there’s reason to believe these metrics woul dbe somewhat associated. Being a “poor” entry defender but an excellent danger suppressor might mean different things.
The danger in using exclusively xGA and believing it represents “danger suppression” is that there is still a total shots effect in play. The best way to determine whether a defenseman suppresses danger would be based on a per-shot metric or to weight their xGA vs their CA. If a player has a ton of shot attempts against but they are all low danger, they should be properly rewarded. I am not sure what difference that would make, the best players on this graph would likely remain in that position, but it could allow some other players to shine.
The best among this cohort (Tanev, Miller, McDonagh, Dahlin, Maatta) all share a certain puck-moving vibe. Perhaps they play for stall-outs rather than preventing entries (though I believe this would be a factor in Entry Defense Gamescore) or allow shots but keep them to the outside.
This doesn’t say anything about whether these players still have sum-total positive impact, they may be horrific penalty killers or offensive black holes, it only represents what the above metrics say. Whether or not you believe a player could slide up or down each axis is up to you. Simon Nemec is an aggressive entry defender but otherwise poor defender. Will he get better at in-zone defending with time? Will a different system yield better results? Is he too weak or poor at netfront defending to ever suppress shots?
Standouts:
Play Killing Danger Suppressors:
UFA: Vladislav Gavrikov, Nate Schmidt, Derek Forbort, Joel Hanley, Dmitry Orlov
RFA: Kevin Bahl, Declan Chisholm, Dylan Samberg, Jayden Struble, Scott Perunovich, Shakir Mukhamadullin
Trades: Adam Pelech, Lian Bichsel, Jordan Spence, Egor Zamula, JJ Moser
Neutral Zone Killers:
UFA: Jeff Petry, Brendan Smith, Nick DeSimone, Brent Burns, Haydn Fleury, Aaron Ekblad
RFA: Nils Lundkvist, Wyatt Kaiser, Zac Jones, Albert Johansson, Alexander Romanov
Trades: Simon Nemec, John Marino, Ryan Pulock, Brandt Clarke, Braden Schneider
In-Zone Suppressors:
UFA:
RFA: Ryker Evans, Noah Dobson, Tyler Kleven
Trades: Kaedan Korczak, Ryan Graves, Michael Kesselring, Mackenzie Weegar, Rasmus Ristolainen, Travis Sanheim, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson
Sniff test, Dante Fabbro grades out well as a potential Killer complementary player to Werenski. Sounds like a good deal for the Blue Jackets!
I’ll bring this graph back, though please be advised that the colors are not the same, to represent penalty killing through the deadline portion of the season.
Standouts:
UFA: Nate Schmidt, Derek Forbort, Brent Burns, Joel Hanley
RFA: K’Andre Miller, Dylan Samberg, Alex Romanov, Wyatt Kaiser, Conor Timmins, Jordan Spence, Sam Malinski
Trades: Owen Power, Braden Schneider, Mattias Samuelsson, Sam Girard, MacKenzie Weegar, Erik Karlsson
Forward Market
Acquisition Objectives
Get Better Players
Mine Future Stars
Improve Defensive Ability of Forwards
Push Jenner to Third Pair
Push Sillinger for Fourth Line or Wing
Find Matchup Line Anchor
Find a Top Six Forward who;
Can Connect Passes and Enhance the in-possession play of Fantilli and KJ
Can Create Net-Front Playmaking on the PP (ideally Right Shot)
Remain Open to a Player who Could Thrive Alongside Monahan-Marchenko
This chart should be familiar from the defense market analysis as well. What’s interesting, perhaps, is that the relationship between passing importance and possession differential doesn’t seen quite as strong for forwards as it does defensemen. Passing might then be less important for players who play in more advanced positions.
Both high end results pass the sniff-test. The most top-right players are all pretty much superstars save for Nick Suzuki depending on where you land on that particular debate.
If Adam Fantilli hopes to join that crew, it looks like his passing and play-driving will need to take a rather dramatic leap. The best Blue Jackets are Kent Johsnon, Kirill Marchenko and Sean Monahan.
The Bottom Right, or play drivers who maybe don’t pass that much, all look like incredible defensive players and as such might make a prototype for future players who would be well placed on matchup lines.
Standouts:
Play-Building Play-Drivers:
UFA: Yanni Gourde, Mitch Marner, Brad Marchand, Claude Giroux, Matt Duchene, Nik Ehlers, Jack Roslovic, Marcus Johansson
RFA: Alex Laferriere, Marco Rossi, Luke Evangelista, Maxim Tsyplakov, Mavrik Bourque
Trades: Troy Terry, Alex Debrincat, Rickard Rakell, Anders Lee, Alexis Lafrieniere, Viktor Arvidsson, Cole Perfetti
Pure-Passers:
UFA: Brock Nelson, Patrick Kane, Mikael Granlund, Sam Bennett, Kyle Palmieri
RFA: Mason McTavish, Kappo Kakko, Simon Holmstrom
Trades: Nick Schmaltz, Ryan Hartman, Trevor Zegras, Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Zacha, Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Tuch, Filip Forsberg
Play-Drivers:
UFA: Reilly Smith
RFA: Will Cuylle, Noah Cates, Cody Glass
Trades: Barrett Hayton, Zach Benson, Alex Turcotte
This visualization was designed to pit players who are good at transitioning the puck with those who improve their team’s shot quality away from transition. This was designed to find players who might help transition effort, which is a clear area of need for improvement for the Blue Jackets, or who might help upgrade the shot quality without requiring too many puck touches.
The Blue Jackets would be best served in staying away from the transporters but there are specific line combinations and role angles (perhaps as a Chinakhov replacement on the Monahan-Marchenko line or should a puck carrier be dealt in some other deal) where it might make sense.
Otherwise, in the case of fitting a player next to Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli, boosted transition is important but danger improvement would be the priority. Low in the lineup provides plenty more options though matchup and fourth lines would have some different priorities.
Standouts:
Dual Threats:
UFA: Matt Duchene, Nikolaj Ehlers, Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand
RFA: Tsyplakov, Samoskevich, Laferriere
Trades: Terry, Schmaltz, Pinto, Forsberg, Blake, Benson, Lafrieniere
In-Zone Creators:
UFA: Reilly Smith, Marner, JvR
RFA: Rossi, Knies, McTavish, Geekie, McBain, Cates
Trades: Hayton, Pageau, Lee
Transporters:
UFA: Marcus Johansson, Granlund, Nyquist, Saad, Tanev
RFA: McLeod, Evangelista, Zary, Glass, Robertson, Poehling
Trades: Nazar, Maccelli, Rodrigues, Hartman
This graph is designed for explicit stylistic purposes. We’re looking for forwards who find themselves involved at both ends of the ice. Specifically, I have added A3Z deflections and rebounds into a single metric to demarcate players who are involved near the net-front in some capacity. DZ Retrievals indicate players who are involved at the other end.
This doesn’t necessarily say much about skill or efficacy but will highlight players who are at least somewhat involved in those areas. These skills are designed to spotlight players who may be good complements for Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson, especially if they’re good at retrieving pucks and passing them well out of the zone, and who may be adequate replacements higher in the lineup for Dmitri Voronkov or James van Riemsdyk.
It’s not perfect but perhaps it serves as a sniff-test to be combined with the other, perhaps more important metrics.
Standouts:
Breakout and Net Front Players:
UFA: Brock Nelson, Gustav Nyquist, John Tavares, Pius Suter, Mitch Marner, Matt Duchene, Ryan Donato
RFA: Noah Cates, Alex Laferriere, Morgan Geekie
Trades: Elias Pettersson, Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly, Troy Terry
Offensive Zone Net Players:
UFA: Kyle Palmieri, Justin Brazeau, Reilly Smith
RFA: Morgan Frost, Matthew Knies, Will Cuylle, Marco Rossi, Mason McTavish, Luke Evangelista
Trades: Barrett Hayton, Zach Benson, Alexis Lafrieniere, Anders Lee, Elias Lindholm
D Zone Puck Retrievers:
UFA: Mikael Granlund, Jamie Benn
RFA: Ryan McLeod, Tyson Foerster, Ryan Poehling
Trades: Mattias Maccelli, Frank Nazar, Nicolas Roy, Chris Kreider, Nick Schmaltz
This graph is a sort of partner to the one above which was entry gamescore vs xGF driving. In this case, it’s exitgamescore, or players who retrieve and move pucks out of the defensive zone both often and well, and xGA suppression (the number is inverted because fewer xGoals Against is good).
Notice, firstly, that this graph is more normally distributed than others. There are good puck moving forwards and good defensive forwards but they aren’t necessarily or inherently related. The entry gamescore and offensive quality graph had players who performed further away from average which means it’s selected for (as in coaches want players who do it) or an actionable skill that is expressed in data. Perhaps the person who generates an entry is more in control of outcomes than a player who generates an exit.
Either way this graph, though perhaps a bit better than the previous one, is still more role focused than one that should be used to rank players by importance of acquisition. Wings, though this conventional wisdom may be incorrect, are usually asked to suppress chances against and are often valued for their offensive contributions.
Anyway, important to note that this is still good information and might explain whether or not an acquired player will be comfortable in the role you plan to put him in. It’s possible that a player hasn’t played a big role in exiting the zone, or in defending hard, but if you ask them to they will. That’s likely where deeper skills based and film analysis would come in but we can at least determine a little.
It’s important to not exclusively think as xGA as pure slot protection style defense either. Perhaps players gain defensive value by checking in the neutral zone or offensive zone well, perhaps it’s because they consistently recover pucks perhaps it’s even because they manage the puck well and prevent the poor turnovers that result in high danger offense.
Standouts:
Defensive Suppressors and Puck Movers:
UFA: Brock Nelson, Gustav Nyquist, Yanni Gourde
RFA: Ryan McLeod, Alex Laferriere, Matthew Knies, Ryan Poehling, Noah Cates, Gabe Vilardi
Trades: JG Pageau, Nicolas Roy, Ryan O’Reilly, Nils Hoglander, Jared McCann
Transition Starters:
UFA: Matt Duchene, Mitch Marner, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mikael Granlund, Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand
RFA: Jack Quinn
Trades: Nick Schmaltz, Frank Nazar, Alex Debrincat, Trevor Zegras, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson
Chance Suppressors:
UFA: Victor Olofsson, Pius Suter, Andrew Mangiapane
RFA: Cody Glass, Tyson Foerster, Maxim Tsyplakov, Mavrik Bourque
Trades: Zach Benson, Jackson Blake, Alex Turcotte, Shane Pinto, Dawson Mercer, Cole Perfetti, Bobby Brink, Elias Pettersson
Next Up
This concludes the proprietary chart portion of this exercise. I put all of the positions together in this one document so that we can perhaps refer to the data throughout the season without fragmenting the links. Hopefully, this remains a one stop shop for thinking about potential acquisitions as more information comes or as the Blue Jackets move through the phases of the offseason (Buyout, Draft, Free Agency, RFA Arbitration, Training Camp etc.).
What unfortunately may get lost in some of this process is players who don’t really stand out across the tracked metrics but are consistently near-average or good without weaknesses. I’ll try to highlight such players if I believe they fit the situation.
What’s also lost but important to consider is a players’ potential on special teams which is something that I will indeed mention on a case by case basis. Generally, special teams impact comes from skills observable at 5v5.
Coming next, I will highlight my personal conclusions on potential targets. I have used the above charts and data to come to my conclusions, as well as some insights from watching them throughout the year, but any extra strategy is ultimately independent to your preferences! No NHL team will have a full group of scouts/decision-makers that agree and no GM will have perfect information about whether a player is available or for what price. That’s what makes it so much fun.