Forward Targets for the Deadline and Beyond

Theorizing trade targets for the Blue Jackets this upcoming deadline is not trivial. The Blue Jackets are overperforming expectations, suddenly hit by injuries meanwhile their young players are stepping up in the abscence. It’s fair to believe that this lofty performance up to this point isn’t totally real, the Blue Jackets’ underlying numbers aren’t really great (though there’s plenty of room for things not captures by traditional metrics), but they have played exceptionally well, bought into Evason’s system and have played themselves into the wildcard race.

The veteran teams look like they’re fading, Boston and both New York teams, the young teams look like their surging, which is a story we have certainly seen before. With only eight or so games left before the March 8th trade deadline, it’s hard to see who could become buyers or sellers.

For the Blue Jackets, there aren’t any clear holes, at least not that the front office and coaching staff give any indication that they think are real, and there’s not a definite right answer of the approach. When healthy, the roster is nearly full, especially so when looking forward.

The volatility of the playoff race means that whatever moves are made could dramatically alter the playoff odds but at the same time have little effect. Every team in the race could go either way whether they buy or sell, that’s just the nature of 20 game stretches in hockey.

Waddell Insight

In any case, Don Waddell has given The Athletic some insight into his plans for the Blue Jackets so we’ll use that as a jumping off point.

“We had some irons in the fire,” Waddell told The Athletic. “But no action yet.”

Waddell said he’d be willing to trade one of the Blue Jackets’ two first-round picks this coming summer — they also own Minnesota’s after the David Jiricek trade — but only for a player who has remaining term on their contract, not a rental player.

But he also wouldn’t rule out trading one of the Blue Jackets’ mid-round picks — they have two fourth-round picks this year, plus two third-round and three fourth-round picks in 2026 — for a veteran player with an expiring contract after this season.

“I’d like to add somebody who can play in our top six, somebody who can score,” Waddell said. “We were getting through it without (Monahan) for a while, but then Marchy happens … you can’t expect to keep scoring goals when you take those guys out of your lineup.”

Let me clarify here that I think this is 100% the right approach. I don’t think the Blue Jackets should move into the draft with the intention of making both of those picks and should be especially careful about overloading this single draft with 1st round options (should they trade out players to acquire more). The only reason, or at least a very big one, the underlying numbers don’t look good is because of the still growing games of Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger, Denton Mateychuk and Kent Johnson.

They make take leaps forward in development but they’ll be playing largely the same roles and their unspent cap will continue to be unspent. The roster needs upgrades around them while acknowledging that Monahan and Marchenko are a stellar tandem and that the first powerplay unit is very good when healthy.

Getting to the playoffs, or even just remaining competitive through the end of the season, means those young players stay in a competitive mindset with strong drive to improve through the end of the season. Playoff experience would be the cherry on top of an excellent season.

It’d not too difficult to look at the “lucky” playoff drive of the Washington Capitals and also see that a good offseason of smart bets could vault a team to the top of a division undergoing transition.

The Blue Jackets are not in a “win-now” or “all-in” window so Waddell is correct to keep an eye on the future. Moving CBJ picks at this deadline come with huge risk. At the same time, filling holes, mitigating weaknesses or accentuating strengths means that internal improvement will only serve to drive the team higher.

If both picks aren’t made, there’s a very intriguing group of players in the 10-15 range that would be fantastic additions, the Blue Jackets still have Cayden Lindstrom, Gavin Brindley, Stanislav Svozil, Jordan Dumais, Luca Del Bel Belluz, Charlie Elick and Luca Marrelli to fill a second wave of prospects. We shouldn’t count on all of them being impact players, though Lindstrom and Brindley certainly have a great shine, but there will still be talent coming through the organization.

The recent injuries complicate the picture but the goal for the Blue Jackets was always going to be keeping an eye on longer term. We now have good insight on the profile of targets, so now it’s important to understand what the Blue Jackets might be looking for in a player.

What We Know

Up to this point of the season, we have a few facts on hand to try to ascertain Don Waddell’s intentions. He told us some:

• top six scoring

• 1st for term, mid round for rental

Otherwise, we have a couple more tidbits of information and some rumors going in a couple of directions.

First, we have good authority that the Blue Jackets tried to trade for Martin Necas this offseason. The rumored price was incredibly heavy, something to do with the 4th overall pick, and reportedly Necas didn’t want to sign a contract. In any case, Necas would have answered so many questions for the roster. He’s right handed and plays a pacey advanced dual-threat game that would be a prime fit with Adam Fantilli. He’s also excellent on the powerplay, though Marchenko has stepped up into that position this season.

What else we know is that Don Waddell targeted Jacob Trouba though he didn’t want to come here. Safe to say he’s not completely out on shopping for defense. I’ll leave defense for another day but it’s safe to say that the minutes Evason gives to the third pair suggests he doesn’t really care for them.

We have other, less specific information to work from as well. We don’t know of any specified interest but Don Waddell did not win bidding wars or add players like: Kaapo Kakko, Taylor Hall and Joel Farabee. He didn’t add Timothy Liljegren or Olli Maataa but did add Dante Fabbro on waivers.

There were some initial talks, perhaps, on Elias Pettersson but the Canucks moved on from JT Miller instead.

We know that Don Waddell himself went to scout Ottawa vs Nashville, which suggests some significant interest in some players on some of the teams.

We know Chris MacKenzie was scouting CBJ for multiple games, though he is from Columbus so that introduces some uncertainty.

When scouts scout games, it’s not news, when GMs or ranking FO personnel do, it suggests the players in question have advanced in importance enough to get more eyes.

As far as pricing goes, Marcus Pettersson + Depth forwards returned a 1st (very valuable one under certain conditions), Prospect and Contract Swaps. Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci returned a projected late 1st as well.

There aren’t too many first round picks available from true contenders, save Winnipeg and Washington, and I would advise against the Blue Jackets acquiring one unless they are sure to be able to move one or multiple or the pick has a good likelihood of moving to 2026. Trading into the top 10 is usually an inefficient venture, and rarely happens, but it’s something to monitor for this season.

Don Waddell clearly views the picks as currency, eagerly moving David Jiricek rather than keeping the prospect in the AHL, and putting a hard deadline on spending that currency (the time after the season ends but leading into the draft before the pick is made) could mean suboptimal moves are made (like making a late first pick in a weak depth draft).

That said, 2021 was a weak draft and Dallas left with Wyatt Johnson and Logan Stankoven. Joshua Ravensbergen looks like an excellent goalie prospect and Cameron Schmidt and Cameron Reid look like an excellent undersizeds prospect who could fall as well.

Evason Roster Construction Tendencies

I think we’ve seen enough Dean Evason forward construction up to this point to have a good idea that the patterns that we’ve seen are likely a system preference. There have been some interviews or two, especially with respect to Kent Johnson studying Kirill Marchenko, that suggest these patterns are designed.

Now, let’s not think too rigidly about the situation. These patterns don’t have to be forced but they are very much worth considering. When removing players from their previous context we should do some work to understand how they will fit in the new context.

We’ve examined some of the issues with players “stepping on toes” especially with respect to Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli, though they are figuring it out, it’s worth not intentionally adding players who would compete for puck touches in the same ways unless you have a plan.

The primary pattern for forward lines goes as follows: Wall and Net Wing, Center, Weakside and High Zone Wing. I’ll call them, for the most part, small space players and weakside players.

Early in the season, this pattern wasn’t necessarily concrete but was evident:

• Yegor Chinakhov-Sean Monahan-Kirill Marchenko

• Mikael Pyyhtia - Cole Sillinger - Kent Johnson

• James van Riemsdyk - Adam Fantilli - Kevin Labanc

Chinakhov, Johnson and Kevin Labanc are the weakside and open ice. Marchenko, Pyyhtia and JvR were wall wings though it’s worth mentioning the pacier attacking nature of the second line. Hockey is fluid and the team doesn’t necessarily enforce these styles at all times but Evason does seem to have the center and a wing battle backwall and netfront and one who takes more responsibility for adding a weakside threat.

We’ve seen similar patterns with JvR-Monahan-KJ, KJ-Sillinger-Olivier and even within Voronkov-Fantilli-Marchenko.

Even the last roster, pillaged as it was, maintained the pattern:

• Dmitri Voronkov - Adam Fantilli - Kent Johnson

• JvR- Luca Del Bel Belluz - Cole Sillinger

• Zach Aston-Reese - Justin Danforth - Mathieu Olivier

This brings me to the next point, the “matchup” line. Dean Evason, and this dates back to the Minnesota Wild, prefers to have a line that soaks difficult matchups. Up to this point, Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson have taken those duties but most recently that third line has taken the most responsibilities.

When looking at roster holes and weaknesses we should keep in Evason’s deployment and line construction tendencies. The injuries have deflated the roster, so that makes the holes difficult to identify, but looking at the “healthy” roster helps us keep the long-term picture in mind.

Chinakhov - Monahan - Marchenko

Voronkov - Fantilli - Johnson

Jenner - Sillinger - Olivier

Fourth Line Candidates: JvR, LDBB, Danforth, ZAR, Kuraly, Pyyhtia

Before you think I’m being mean or lazy in my analysis by lumping in the bottom of the roster, note that many of these candidates are very low on ice-time and even lower on the leverage of their minutes. Dean Evason doesn’t have a particular interest in running a busy fourth line so anyone from Del Bel Belluz down likely isn’t worth spending too much sweat over.

If fully healthy, an addition in Chinakhov’s place could bump him down to the third line and could make CBJ’s current “grind line” the full fourth line. There’s a lot of flexibility between Voronkov and Jenner moving inside the top six but it’s notable that Don Waddell didn’t suggest he’d be focusing on bringing some matchup style heat to the roster.

Primary Acquisition Considerations

Don Waddell has already given us some ideas on what he seeks to add, goal scoring, but I don’t think we should necessarily stop there in our search for good trade targets. From a top-down perspective, the biggest hole in the Blue Jackets’ underlying profile remains solid possession at 5v5.

The Blue Jackets don’t generate a lot of shots and or danger within those shots but they do have a ton of goals. They’re evenly poor in all defensive categories. Is Don Waddell wrong in going after a goal-scorer? No, Marchenko, Monahan and Chinakhov were all big contributors in play-driving and their absence is roundly felt. Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson also remain drivers of that particular profile, they’re great at scoring goals but not at racking up shot counts, but there’s reason to believe bumping players down the lineup will have knock-on effects.

What’s critical in it not being addressed is defense. The Blue Jackets are a poor defensive team across all metrics, so it stands to reason that there should be some focus there. Waddell hasn’t given any indication at a desire to improve the defense (perhaps as an attempt to drive value for a pending free agent?). At another glance, the aforementioned possession driving will also do a lot of the defensive work for them.

I talked a bit about this last year but I very much believe that the key to improving the Blue Jackets’ defensive metrics is in getting better at offense as paradoxical as that can feel. The biggest drivers of defensive struggle, at least from Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson, is their tendency to create one and done situations. They are talented enough to finish them at a good clip, and this should be considered when evaluating whether the Blue Jackets’ performance is sustainable, but it doesn’t drive the guaranteed metrics that make an analyst confident in labeling the Blue Jackets as a solid playoff team.

In many ways, though excellent in-zone teams still create goals from them, the shots from “recoveries” should almost be considered defensive events. Set defenses and goaltenders are too good at sorting out these coverages for them to be turned into goals easily and therefore many goals come after turnovers or counterattacks from own zone. What they mean, though, is that the opposition isn’t getting chances to move the puck up-ice.

The primary considerations for the Blue Jackets should be players who can help score goals in the absence of Monahan, Marchenko and Chinakhov and who can help fill in the gaps of the meanwhile primary contributors in Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli.

The most important consideration, as with any, is getting the best player possible at the lowest cost possible.

Secondary Considerations

Now, we’re going to move into the AllThreeZones and more stylisic fit data. Here, we can do a little more theorycrafting and examination of within-line sytilistic fits. It’s important to consider these secondary partially because good players figure it out wherever and partially because AllThreeZones is a limited sample size.

That isn’t to say that prioritizing secondary characteristics can’t have big impacts. I’m a proponent of systems thinking which does assert that sometimes changes the furthest down the ladder can have big impacts and are therefore worth pursuing. If the Blue Jackets want the best player at the lowest cost, systems or stylistic alignments should serve to find players who aren’t valued at their “overall impact” cost.

From this perspective, and I think it’s worth starting here just to get it out of the way, the Blue Jackets could really use a right-handed forward. Kirill Marchenko is the only real right handed offensive threat, no offense to Justin Danforth and Mathieu Olivier, and it could help bring some balance to the lineup. Handedness isn’t quite as important to prioritize but some additional line construction flexibility and perhaps temporary powerplay help could go a long way.

The rest of the considerations really depend on what part of the roster you’re seeking to optimize. You could add a rush player and build something with Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson. You could add some pacey forecheck intensity and hope to integrate Fantilli and Chinakhov there or bump them down with Jenner and Sillinger if it doesn’t work. You could add more wall and netfront play and bring lineup versatility between Voronkov, Jenner and that new player.

I think keeping Dmitri Voronkov-Adam Fantilli-Kent Johnson together is fantastic. It was a line that I certainly wanted to see on paper to begin the season and they’re each showing a lot of growth in all of the key areas that looked like issues through the beginning of the season.

Still, I’ll focus on what AllThreeZones has to give us.

The first being that without Marchenko and Monahan, the Blue Jackets don’t have many great players at reliably getting to scoring areas in the offensive zone. Kent Johnson is performing very well from a Shots and Shot Assists perspective but he’s been held to the exterior of the ice. Fantilli is somewhat the same. He leans more toward scoring chance contributions but is still well off the chance pace he produced last season. He’s a lethal shooter who hasn’t had as easy of a time getting shots off from the important area though he’s improved as of late.

Monahan, Marchenko and Voronkov are all the best at getting shots from the cycle and forecheck and perhaps that makes them all good candidates to continue to perform on a forechecking identity line. Voronkov was quite engaged in the slower pace.

Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli get a vast majority of their shots off the rush. The same issue with the lack of recovery shots. The question, then, is how you move to fill in the gaps. Does Voronkov as a netfront and small space player serve as a complement? Do you seek to get another? Or do you lean into the rush game with someone who can help them improve in that area?

It’s clear that tough Johnson and Fantilli carry the puck into the zone often, they aren’t always the best at converting those entries into rush chances. Marchenko and Voronkov feature highly here as well.

The Blue Jackets aren’t exactly a rush team, and the sample size could be missing some of their best performances, as they seem to create extremely dangerous rush situations or prioritize slowing down once they enter the zone.

We know Johnson, Fantilli and Marchenko are great primary puck carriers who can all play through the middle or receive pucks on the weakside. What this means, should you accept this premise, is that the Blue Jackets should focus on players who operate in the small space well.

Finding a metric that supports “plays in small space well” isn’t trivial but there are some techniques we can use to get a rough idea. I think considering “Entries that Lead to Chances” is one way, suggesting that they don’t need a lot of puck touches to contribute to a chance, but let’s check out a few others.

This is the breakdown of the scoring chance profile. Notice that Kent Johnson takes more scoring chances and Fantilli sets more of them up. They’ve flipped their profiles a bit there, Kent Johnson playing a lot like a center this year and Fantilli being forced to the outside but it’s clear that the Blue Jackets need some scoring chance setup help.

Kent Johnson should be moving in that direction, or perhaps playing off of Fantilli for both to become dual-threats, but I believe that the Blue Jackets should still find some more help there. Small space play is often along the walls and moving the puck from the exterior to the interior, into a scoring area, can serve as a sort of shortcut for that type of play.

Not all of these chance assists come from wall to middle play but it at least suggests playing in a way that promotes someone else being in the middle and shooting.

Another shortcut is to examine the ways in which the player creates zone exits.

I’ve covered the Blue Jackets’ breakout structure in depth and I believe we can see it reflected in the data here. Players who often play on the walls pass exits more and players who carry the puck out are often the centers of their respective lines. Monahan, Marchenko, Kent Johnson and Kuraly carry exits all the time. Fantilli has his own way of doing things, perhaps an artefact of the sample size, but the rest are easily categorized as the more wall oriented wings.

For now, these are the AllThreeZones metrics by which we’ll use to examine the market of available players.

I haven’t mentioned as much about special teams, partially because I think the Blue Jackets have their PP1 when healthy, know it’s good and that doesn’t even include Adam Fantilli. Perhaps someone who can fill in for a short time, though Marchenko returning after the break would mean limited opportunity, would help but it’s not necessarily worth paying for unless it represents a major upgrade over the current talent.

The penalty kill needs help and penalty killers are going to be highly important. If Jenner returns, he should slot in and bump players. Perhaps penalty killing remains a secondary consideration but really it feels a lot like a nice bonus. Evason will also have the ability to slot Kent Johnson back into minutes or even Yegor Chinakhov, should his injury not require managed minutes, who should be incredible on the PK.

The final secondary characteristic is the primary reason to use analytics for market analysis: mining value. Name brand players cost more. Players who play more minutes also cost more. If we can identify players who are unlucky, with room to improve or who are underplayed or undervalued by their teams we can potentially win big with low cost.

The Considerations

Primary:

• Top Six

• 5v5 Play Driving and Scoring

Secondary:

• Right Handed

• Chance over Shot Generation (xG Driving)

• Chance Passing over Shooting

• Entries Leading to Chances

• Passing Exit Profile

• Undervalue or Regression Potential

The Blue Jackets need players who can produce offense, who can help their youth recover pucks and play more in the middle of the ice without a high volume of puck touches. First and foremost, they need the best player at the lowest price.

Buyers and Sellers

It’s quite important, especially when theorycrafting and armchair GMing, to identify teams with incentives to make moves. Otherwise, we’re just hoping that some of our favorite players, who the other team also likes, will switch teams.

This deadline is tricky primarily because of the very close East wildcard race. Certain teams may be using the time until the deadline to make definitive decisions on how they approach their rosters. Don Sweeney, GM of the Boston Bruins, has said as much on the TNT broadcast:

We’ve missed Hampus Lindholm all year, at least the last 40 games, and it’s affected our group. But everybody goes through injuries. You gotta battle through it, gotta find a way while I’m out there trying to improve our club. You know, if we have more injuries or we don’t do the job between now and the deadline, we may have to take a different path.”

Emphasis mine, but important to note that Sweeney might be willing to pivot to selling some of Boston’s assets. This approach gives us a second tier of teams that might be last-minute additions to the sellers.

Perhaps Four Nations injuries will create more buyers or eliminate players on potential sellers. If Werenski is injured, does CBJ throw in the towel or do they feel they can’t move Provorov?

Selling or Out of Playoffs:

• Buffalo Sabres

• Montreal Canadiens

• Philadelphia Flyers

• St. Louis Blues

• Nashville Predators

• Pittsburgh Penguins

• Seattle Kraken

• Anaheim Ducks

• Chicago Blackhawks

• San Jose Sharks

From here, I think the biggest movers will be the Buffalo Sabres, Seattle Kraken and the Nashville Predators. I think Danny Briere will be open for business with the Philadelphia Flyers but the rest of the rebuilders might not have the players or desire to move out veterans without significant packages. Kyle Dubas has rumored a fire sale, and has already sold Marcus Pettersson, so there are deals to be made. St. Louis definitely has some interesting players but none that seem particularly moveable.

Montreal, Chicago, San Jose and Anaheim are all in a similar spot to the Blue Jackets as young teams who look done being bad, save maybe San Jose, and might be holding onto their veterans for dear life.

Deadline Decisions

• Calgary Flames

• Utah Hockey Club

• New York Rangers

• New York Islanders

• Detroit Red Wings

• Boston Bruins

• Vancouver Canucks

The Rangers, Islanders and Bruins currently sit behind the Blue Jackets in the wildcard race. They are veteran teams with proud players and proud managers but their vibes are just not good. You’d expect better runs as things get more important but there aren’t too many games left to decide direction.

Utah and Calgary are in the same sort of retooling or build phase. It’s important to consider that even though these teams might not move significant pieces, especially with Lou Lamoriello, they might have inefficient contracts or depth players that can be had as part of a not-quite-selling approach to the deadline.

When dealing with these fringe teams, incentive to move is paramount. If a player is underperforming their contract and a team wants to fill that space elsewhere

If the Blue Jackets want good players from these teams, and they should, they’ll have to deal someone who helps those teams as well. I think this is especially important to consider with young teams. They often don’t want to deal good young players for futures, which Don Waddell is eager to spend, but rather to fill deficiencies they don’t have.

It’s too easy for me to use hindsight for the liquidation of David Jiricek but he feels a lot more like a player who could be used to poach another good young player from a rebuilding team.

The Blue Jackets do seem to have the market cornered on “toughness” especially with Boone Jenner and Mathieu Olivier on the team. Boone Jenner will not be moved in-season, especially not with Waddell wanting to reward the players, and it seems Olivier is a desired player too. If these players move, and it’s not clear they ever will, it will be during the offseason.

The Market

Now here’s where it gets quite difficult. There’s no clear contract identity that Waddell is seeking, willing to pay a first for players with more term, or finding a veteran who could be cheap. That makes it difficult to compartmentalize and narrow down the list, though there are some that jump out. To help, I’ll utilize tools from EvolvingHockey and AllThreeZones so that I can help us examine these players without writing an entire book.

I’ll be using the DataWrapper interactive visualizations, so I highly encourage you to click around. It’s not possible to make everything as clear as I’d like, so the interactivity is important.

I have, for the most part, filtered the list down to people who could be potentially available or who are useful as a benchmark in some way. By doing so, I have introduced some personal bias and might be leaving some players off the table or including players who under no circumstance would be available.

Mostly, the Blue Jackest want to add players who look good in all of the considerations. Checking all of the boxes is less important for players who are young or we have reason to believe should look different in a new context. Not everything can be captured by these metrics, so I’ll be grouping players by target profile after this section so we can examine context where it needs to be examined.

The biggest and most important metric remains a players ability to tilt the ice and turn that into a goals advantage. RAPM (or regularized adjusted plus-minues) is the best tool we have to strip a player’s performance of their team’s context.

We could dive more into single-number metrics, like GAR or xGAR or sG, but since this one has components and is regularized and adjusted for minutes, it serves as a good equalizer.

As you can see, Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko are sorely missed. Monahan is the best driver of xG differential in the league and Marchenko is the best of actual goal differential.

In some cases, driving xG but not goals means unlucky, in others it means they’re underperforming in some capacity. Damon Severson isn’t on the list but he’s a good example of a player who heavily tilts the ice but it doesn’t translate into goals because he makes very big mistakes. Most years you still take that, this one he’s been roundly underperforming and probably a net negative.

The Blue Jackets, in general, are better at getting goals than they are dangerous chances. I’ve touched on that tendency a bit with respect to Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli. Sometimes that comes down to their tendency to create danger that isn’t captured by NHL PxP and some is their high level finishing skill.

For that matter, Tuch and Kyrou are well represented. They are incredibly skilled players who we can trust will create offense that outscores its relative danger.

Brenden Gallagher and Mark Jankowski, on the other hand, might be a little fake-danger oriented (Kevin Labanc grades out well but we’ve examined his outlier-distorted metrics in the past). They have a tendency to register shots at high xG values but don’t have the skill to convert those shots into goals. You could call these “pad-stuffers” but it’s worth mentioning that CBJ still lack xG drivers and getting to pucks in the slot, or preventing it the other direction, could serve a purpose on a team bereft of those abilities.

The standouts of this section, at least for me, among sellers are: Tyson Foerster, Zach Benson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Troy Terry, Alex Tuch, Jared McCann and Tommy Novak. Negatively: Cozens, Quinn, Zegras, Dach and Taylor Hall in Chicago.

Among fringe sellers: Barrett Hayton, Dylan Holloway, Maxim Tsyplakov, Justin Brazeau and Nils Hoglander. Negatively, Kreider, Maccelli and Boeser.

Among not-sellers: Jackson Blake and Mackie Samoskevich, boy do they look incredible. Casey Mittelstadt looks notably poor.

The next few plots will all move into AllThreeZones data. These should be considered stylistic and secondary. As much as RAPM needs big sample sizes and can be volatile or misleading depending on team, A3Z is working with significantly smaller sample sizes only just recently acquiring enough data to publish. These metrics could swing significantly at the drop of a hat.

Standouts among sellers: Ryan Poehling, Taylor Hall (included for reference), Jared McCann, Luke Evangelista, Gustav Nyquist, JJ Peterka. Perhaps negatively painting Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alex Tuch, Brenden Gallagher, Tyson Foerster and Tommy Novak from a quantity over quality perspective.

Standouts among fringe: Pavel Zacha, Mattias Maccelli, Kyle Palmieri, Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Brazeau. Negative: Maxim Tsyplakov, Boeser, Hayton, Holloway Coyle. Above average shot volume isn’t necessarily bad, so still could be worse. Nils Hoglander is a fringe candidate. Would still grade out better than most and still prefers danger to quantity.

Standouts among buyers: Jackson Blake (Samoskevich didn’t make the minutes cutoff or something). Many not exactly standouts not exactly negative. Casey Mittelstadt does not take volume. Nick Robertson takes a huge volume. Gabe Vilardi takes very little of everything.

This is a look into whether a players’ scoring chances were setup or taken by them. My interpretation is that the Blue Jackets could use more passing into the dangerous areas, and that chance setups might indicate small space ability, but chances in any way are good.

Seller standouts: Ryan Poehling, JJ Peterka, Ryan Strome, Jared McCann, Luke Evangelista, Gus Nyquist, Rickard Rakell with Foerster, Cates, Benson and Tuch being good at taking the chances. Negatively, Jankowski, Quinn, Novak. Bjorkstrand not ideal but still better than most CBJ at passing which is interesting.

Fringe standouts: Kyrou, Palmieri, Brazeau, Maccelli, Tarasenko, Zacha. Hoglander in an interesting spot like Bjorkstrand. Tsyplakov, Holloway, Boeser, Gallagher chance takers. Negatively: not many relevant.

Buyer standouts: Blake and Samoskevich again! Mittelstadt chance setups only. Nicolas Roy and Alex Iafallo good potential cap-relief from contenders candidates.

Now, we move further into some stylistic rush profiles. What we’re looking for, mostly, is players who don’t need high volume entries to turn it into chances. Usually, though not always, this is an indication of people who can link plays. Yegor Chinakhov isn’t listed, but last season he rated out highly on Entries Leading to Chances. It could also, then, be an indication of good weakside speed.

Seller standouts: Taylor Hall, Zach Benson, Luke Evangelista, Gustav Nyquist, Alex Tuch. Rakell, Zucker, Bjorkstrand with plenty of chances and very few controlled entries, perhaps they fit well as forecheckers. Negatively, JJ Peterka needs a lot of volume as do Novak, Cozens and Zegras. Foerster, Poehling, Jankowski very uninvolved.

Fringe standouts: Maxim Tsyplakov (!!!), Holloway, Palmieri and Tarasenko to lesser extents. Brazeau and Hoglander uninvolved whereas Maccelli and Zacha carrying the puck often.

Buyer standouts: Blake, Arvidsson, Tatar as good rush facilitators. Samoskevich rounded with Mittelstadt and Robertson being inefficient.

This next part doesn’t really make too many assertions about which players are good or bad for CBJ moreso a matter of perspective and the situations they’ve been asked to play up to this point. Players who are good at rush and cycle/forecheck could be used to emphasize or balance lines based on the prescribed identity.

Seller Standouts: Evangelista generates a lot off the rush, Rakell is good there too, Hall was good there. Tuch, Bjorkstrand, Poehling, McCann more balanced. Gallagher, Benson, Foerster, Jankowski, Strome very in-zone oriented. Negatively, Nyquist and Novak struggle to shoot much from these situations.

Fringe Standouts: Maccelli and Typlakov are well rounded but very good rush. Holloway, Boeser, Palmieri are balanced. Tarasenko is rush leaning. Not too many great in-zone players, Hayton and Coyle are balanced. Negatively, Hoglander and Brazeau are uninvoled.

Buyer: Arvidsson is a heavy rush standout, Robertson is heavy volume and Samoskevich and Blake look good as usual.

The final metric remains the most experimental and perhaps the most that is influenced by systems and role asks. We can theorize that these contribute to being weakside or small space but we’d need much more film to make sure.

Buyer standouts: Hall, Cates, Tuch at carrying, Nyquist, Evangelista and Novak balanced. Jankowski, Teravainen, Glass, Poehling and Bjorkstrand at passing.

Fringe Standouts: Maccelli, Brazeau and Tsyplakov at carrying, Zacha, Geekie, Hoglander at passing and Schmaltz is really good. Holloway, Hayton and Boeser uninvolved.

Buyer Standouts: Mittelstadt is a good passer, as is Arvidsson. Roy, Blake and Samoskevich all want to carry the puck out.

The Targets

Best Candidates

Rickard Rakell - 31, Right Handed

$5 million x 4 years, 8 Team NTC - 32 points in 56 games at 5v5 (t-16th in NHL)

At first, I was heavily not sold on Rickard Rakell. Depending on acquisition price, I still may not be. He has some very nice metrics and showed out as a great scorer against the Blue Jackets this season. Where it’s hard to trust these numbers are in his play alongside Sidney Crosby. That isn’t to say it’s bad to be good with good players, much the opposite, but that it’s fair to conclude that the Blue Jackets don’t want to pay for a performance in a context that they cannot match.

In watching his game at the 4 Nations Faceoff against Canada, he’s excellent. Lots of skill in all the right places. He’s a good second option for the powerplay and should help facilitate an offensive line. I can’t say that he’s a primary puck retriever or net-front player or board-dominant, so he will operate primarily in a more motion oriented or rush attacking space, but there’s an angle for him alongside Kent Johnson or Adam Fantilli, if not both.

He’s more chance oriented than volume in both shooting, assisting and rush creation. He isn’t overly involved in transition, which might make him an excellent complementary candidate, but that could also be result of Crosby’s puck-play. He’s tied for 16th in the NHL in 5v5 scoring, tied with Marchenko and one behind Zach Werenski.

The question of cost acquistion and contract risk remain. He is indeed for sale but he’s also turning 32 in May, signed for 3 more years after this one and has a small 8 team No Trade Clause. That’s a lot of risk for a time in which the Blue Jackets should be hoping to grow forward. Paying assets for someone who should be aging and will be moving away from one of the best players in the NHL is tricky.

However, his contract may not be as risky as it seems on two fronts. First, the dollar amount is $5 million. If the cap goes up as aligned, that number will be the same in 2026-27 when the cap is $104 million. That means he will be getting paid $3.9 million in today’s cap dollars. If it goes up after, it only gets cheaper. If Rakell ages well, not a given, and provides some secondary offense away from Crosby, that’s a worthwhile cap-hit risk to incur.

The second point in his favor is actual dollars. His cap-hit is $5 million but his actual salary owed, with no bonuses, will drop to $4.6 million next season and then to $3.6 million for the next two years. That’s a fantastic way to help out an owner and mitigate some risk should he fall off. You don’t want to sign a contract with a plan to buy it out but it mitigates the risk as well.

Gustav Nyquist - 35, Left Handed

$3.185 million x 1 year, 10 points in 53 games at 5v5 (t-405th in NHL)

Nyquist is perhaps the most-obvious candidate and I would fully advocate for his inclusion on the roster. He’s skilled and malleable. He can play along the wall and fight for pucks while also having the brain to work with very skilled players. He never really wanted to leave in the first place, it just made sense as a significant injury in a lost-season.

He’s having a strange season, producing much less and part of a Nashville squad that is deeply disappointing. That said, underneath it all, is a profile that looks primed for some positive regression. From MoneyPuck metrics that aren’t available for direct download, he’s ranked 78th in the NHL with 2.4 goals scored below expected when adjusted for shooting talent. His RAPM suggests his actual on-ice goals pace well below expected which could mean he’s doing some bad things but could also mean things could change in a hurry.

This, along with his involvement and proficiency as a connector in transition, and the A3Z profile that suggests he loves to pass and is good at it, makes him a near perfect fit to add alongside the Blue Jackets. His underlyings are great but the actual goals haven’t been, perfect for a team that is so much the opposite and perfect for getting performance better in the short term than you pay for.

He looks better than Rakell in build-up but doesn’t have the raw on-ice numbers to reflect that play. Good thing for the Blue Jackets because that might mean he fits in Waddell’s “potential middle round pick” price range. He is certainly a name brand, though, so it’s possible other contenders are in on the expiring wing.

What makes Nyquist so simple and alluring is because he has plenty of proof of concept with this organization. Plenty of front office personnel can already vouch for his off-ice and he even performed exceptionally well for Dean Evason in a short stint post-injury and in the playoffs with the Minnesota Wild.

Alex Tuch - 28, Right Handed

$4.75 million x 2 years, 5 Team NTC - 28 points in 54 games at 5v5 (t-36th in NHL)

Buffalo is mired in another miserable season after making yet another coaching mistake. Alex Tuch was part of the initial resurgence of the club when he became one of the elite power-playmakers in the league. Though his metrics don’t look as fantastic under the hood as they have in the past, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can look quite different in short order.

Tuch looks like one of the best fits possible for a player who can play the netfront, use his skill to get off the wall and put very good players in very good spots. Provided Monahan takes some time to return, he could even fit extremely well as a part-time bumper/netfront flex on the powerplay.

I wouldn’t have included him, and his two year contract term isn’t exactly great, but it’s rumored Tampa is in on him as well. The Blue Jackets can play with their Wild pick to act somewhat irresponsibly in a bidding war. Where it doesn’t work for me, despite the Sabres’ cheapness, is his cap-hit. It’s $4.75 million which should be extremely palatable to both the Sabres and any other competitor.

Two years is a tricky time to pay for from a Blue Jackets perspective. It’s not guaranteed security through the cap-increase, though it does fit a good timeline in an allowing for roster growth perspective, but it’s also not a rental.

Ultimately, I would be in on him though a first might be too rich without other moving pieces. That said, the Wild pick might be valued closer to a second given the projected shallowness of this draft, so perhaps picks can be moved around.

Tuch is an excellent fit as a secondary scorer who would make so many line combinations fit for the Blue Jackets whether thats KJ-Fantilli-Tuch, KJ-Monahan-Tuch so that Voronkov-Fantilli-Marchenko happens or what have you.

Small Space Players

Kyle Palmieri - 34, Right Handed

$5 million x 1 year, 16 team NTC, 25 points in 55 games (t-62nd in NHL)

Kyle Palmieri is a veteran who would be an excellent fit for the Blue Jackets. Though his underlying profile doesn’t suggest a playdriver, he has important insulator skills in important areas for the Blue Jackets. He’s excellent at bumping the puck off the wall in transition and should thrive with useful passes in small space.

That said, he plays for Lou Lamoriello, has veteran name cachet and the biggest no trade of the candidate bunch. He’s scoring a lot of points and it’s hard to see the Islanders move this player at the deadline to better competition. Still, his game on tape really works at the right price.

Pavel Zacha - 27, Left Handed

$4.75 million x 3 years, 10 team NTC - 20 points in 57 games at 5v5 (t-136th in NHL)

Zacha isn’t a particularly good playdriver and plays in a cushy role on a fringe playoff Boston team. Sweeney has said they might sell off which makes Zacha a good acquisition candidate. He won’t solve all of the problems but could cushion Monahan’s absence by being a nice play-connecting complement.

His A3Z work is great and rounded and he can find the middle of the ice as a center or wing. I can’t say what he would cost with term and some certainty, especially because of his draft pedigree, but the Blue Jackets shouldn’t pay too much for him if anything. He’s in a great spot and still struggles to score.

Justin Brazeau - 27, Right Handed

$777k x 1 year - 15 points in 53 games at 5v5 (t-242nd in NHL)

Justin Brazeau is certainly not a top six forward, nor is he really a veteran. He’s on the older side but he is huge, right handed and has some surprising skill. He would be a great budget find as as a big player who is chance oriented and could serve as good depth and net-front prescence.

Vladimir Tarasenko - 33, Left Handed

$4.75m x 2 years, Full NTC, 13 points in 53 games (t-304th in NHL)

Detroit has reportedly made Tarasenko available and have a strong desire to move the player despite his full no trade clause. They can still use waivers as a threat, which GMs are wont to do lately.

In most cases, I wouldn’t even mention Tarasenko. He’s not a play driver and he’s a big name who has now lost a roster spot on a surging team competing with the Blue Jackets. Still, he kept popping up in positive ways through the AllThreeZones examinations. He’s chance oriented, passing oriented despite his repuation and is helping conver entries to chances.

There’s a lot not to like about Tarasenko but if the objective of the deadline is to reward players for a season of hard work, perhaps a former star and cup-winner is the right way to do it. Maybe Yzerman can even pay for the privilege.

Weakside Offense

Oliver Bjorkstrand - 29, Right Handed

$5.4 million x 2 years, 10 team NTC - 25 points in 56 games (t-62nd in NHL)

Oliver Bjorkstrand would be a fan favorite return for many Blue Jackets fans. From an underlying profile and top-down role fit, he’s a fantastic fit. He remains an excellent play driver, and excellent scorer at 5v5 and uses his skating and some unheralded tenacity to get the work done.

In Seattle, and even late in his CBJ career carrying Cole Sillinger, he’s found an understated passing game and has certainly grown as an off-wall player. Still, he’s inefficient and volume over danger oriented. Perhaps that explains some of the metrics but it’s easy to slide him into his old role as a weak-side wing down the lineup for Cole Sillinger.

Perhaps, if lines continue to jumble, he can even help Adam Fantilli play a pacier forechecking game. As it stands, though, he might cost over what the Blue Jackets would prefer.

Maxim Tsyplakov - 26, Left Handed

$950k x 1 year, 22 points in 51 games (t-102nd in NHL)

If the Blue Jackets are looking for a low cost, no name value Chinakhov replacement, Maxim Tsyplakov is certainly it. His underlying numbers are stellar and he’s a fantastic rush creator. He is shooting over passing oriented but doesn’t seem to have much of an issue helping to generate chances and get the puck up ice.

He might be a little linear but he’s competitive and skilled for an old NHL rookie. He would be a fantastic addition if the Blue Jackets want a little more vertical threat. The question for him wouldn’t be so much the risk of acquisition but instead why not Taylor Hall? A 3rd round pick is certainly palatable and Hall has some excellent individual metrics. Perhaps Carolina’s involvement made it impossible.

Brock Boeser - 27, Right Handed

$6.65m x 1 year, 10 team NTC - 19 points in 48 games at 5v5 (t-156th in NHL)

I wouldn’t have mentioned Boeser if not for some reporting that CBJ would certainly be interested. Frankly, outside of his incredible personality vibes, I really don’t see the desire to go after the wing.

He does have a 40 goal season under his belt but has the name-recognition price boost that comes with it. It doesn’t appear that Vancouver has any intention of signing him and he could very well be a good scoring replacement in case of lingering injuries to Chinakhov, Monahan or Marchenko but outside of that he’s not a particularly good participant in build-up for forechecking.

In his viewings against the Blue Jackets, he definitely showed some interesting ideas and hockey sense on off-puck movement post-entry. The Blue Jackets could use that and could maybe use some powerplay juice if injury returns take some time.

Centers

At this point, I think I’ve covered the biggest options available for trade for the Blue Jackets. From here forward, I’ll have smaller blurbs mostly touching on availability. If I’ve observed anything, it’s that Team Sweden is a must watch and that I should certainly hit the tape of Nashville and Buffalo.

The next few players will all be centers with a few years of cost certainty. It’s not clear exactly what exactly the lineup implications would be in the future but there’s reasons to include any of them in consideration for future roster flexibility.

Oh most of the players, wrist surgery has me most concerned. Monahan was a revelation for the Blue Jackets and I am legitimately worried that he’s too difficult to replace. The powerplay hasn’t been the same and points are harder to come by. Boone Jenner is returning, and perhaps that bumps some players around beneath Fantilli, but it might behoove the Blue Jackets to find some center-ice talent.

Ryan O’Reilly

Barry Trotz reportedly said that he would treat ROR as if he has a full NMC despite him having no protection. Cam Robinson of EPRinkside, however, recently put him atop his trade board.

If Nashville moves on, the Blue Jackets would be an excellent landing spot. They’ll love his character in-room, love his winning pedigree and he’s as near a swap as you can get for the injured Sean Monahan. His A3Z stats are putrid and his EvolvingHockey suggests an excellent defensive center and MoneyPuck suggests he’s been heavily unlucky.

Worth pursuing for the Blue Jackets but perhaps not worth getting your hopes up for.

Tommy Novak

Tommy Novak is an older and inexperienced analytics darling. He’s played less than 200 games at 27 years old and is paid #3.5 million for this season and the next two. His play driving is out of this world, he’s excellent in transition and a phenomenal playmaker. The catch? That he mostly does it against sheltered competition.

If the Blue Jackets want to replace Luca Del Bel Belluz, there isn’t a better candidate. Perhaps he’s ready for a 2C type role going forward, but that would complicate the picture on Monahan’s return and within Evason’s deployment tendencies.

Casey Mittelstadt

It certainly looks like Colorado’s 2C is heading for a departure from the roster that is shaking itself up after disappointing performances since the cup. He’s paid a manageable $5.75 million but simply doesn’t fit. There are angles here and there in the AllThreeZones data, certainly an improvement in the short term over LDBB, but largely he’s been putrid this season with the Avalanche.

The catch is that two seasons ago he broke out in a massive way in Buffalo and repeated that performance last season. He was an unusually good playdriver at 5v5 despite not crushing anything in particular.

Perhaps a move away from Colorado’s too-fast system and maybe a longer term slot on the wing would help the Blue Jackets carve out some roster flexibility.

Young Breakout Bets

Nils Hoglander

Nils Hoglander has been completely doghoused by Rick Tocchet as he continues to submarine the Cancucks’ season. The entire organization has been continually beset by horrific management and it’s possible this the diminuitive Swede the latest.

Like Mittelstadt, for whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to put it all together since his breakout so many seasons ago. Last year, he was one of the most efficient 5v5 scorers with an understated capacity to get the puck off the wall and into the middle of the ice. Go back a few more years and his A3Z metrics are inarguable.

He signed an extension that starts this offseason paying him $3 million for 3 seasons. That’s not nothing money but that might also be why he’s available for free. He might just be a Alexandre Texier type, supremely skilled but too mistake-prone or defensively unaware to earn a coach’s trust, but he might also just be good.

Mattias Maccelli

Mattias Maccelli also broke out last season and put up sterling results and a bunch of points. This season he still looks good but he’s been relegated to the pressbox and fourth line when Utah is healthy. He’s volume over danger oriented but also an incredibly intelligent playmaker. The Blue Jackets don’t have too many roster spots to fill with this type of player but there’s certainly breakout potential.

Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista too broke out last season with Nashville. Amidst their funk, he has floundered. He’s right handed, an excellent playmaker and has the sense and skill in certain situations, mostly in delays off the rush, to be a dynamic facilitator of offense. The Blue Jackets use these delay plays frequently and an improved right handed option could be the key to unlocking some of Fantilli’s speed through the middle.

In flashes, you can still see what he brings. In Nashville, it’s been tough sledding of late.

Budget Adds

Each of these players is difficult to imagine being placed above the third line. For that reason, it doesn’t appear that Don Waddell will go after their profile but I still think they’re worth mentioning because of their potential acquisition cost.

Ryan Poehling

Pacey, forechecking and danger oriented. He’s been a key part of Philly’s secondary attack and has developed a surprising playmaking game. It would be easy to see him as a direct upgrade on Mikael Pyyhtia and someone who could compete with Zach Aston-Reese for that role.

John Beecher

Beecher is a fourth liner on Boston. So why mention him? He’s a faceoff wizard and he’s young. His defensive metrics are great, though probably skewed due to how fast he jumps off the ice and he went to the University of Michigan. If there’s an angle for his faceoff winning and netfront sturdiness, perhaps that’s in Dean Evason’s system.

Cody Glass

Cody Glass is a depth forward for the Pittsburgh Penguins who is right handed. He’s been decent under the hood, though, and might offer some defensive acumen that would be welcomed in the bottom six.

Brandon Tanev

Tanev is paid too much for how poor his on-ice results have been. He has a tendency to steal all of the air in the room but it’s easy to why a team would want him on a forechecking line. He’s tenacious and pacey and was recently a completely stellar defensive forward. Perhaps Evason can reclaim his game.

Mark Jankowski

Mark Jankowski has the most stellar defensive analytic profile you’ll probably ever see from a player who plays so little. The exact type of player that can help form a play-driving fourth line. James van Riemsdyk - Mark Jankowski - Justin Brazeau? Sign me up.

Top Shelf Righties

Part of Waddell’s comments indicate he’s willing to use his first round pick for players who have term. At the same time, he’s indicated he needs to manage term when it comes to Provorov and Olivier. This puts CBJ asset spending in a precarious position. What does it mean for a player to have limited term and be worth high capital for a team that’s still building itself into a contender? Well, what if we skip that and get the best players? Maybe Marchenko and Monahan can focus on dominating at 5v5 and Fantilli can cook with a long time NHL star.

For now, in keeping with our desire for good right handed players, I thought we would examine the top of the good chain. Each of these players is signed to a long term contract and each is an incredible player at their position. Because these contracts were signed before the cap went up, save one, they are highly valuable commodities whose contracts may look like second-line value as we currently know it.

It’s not likely that these move from their teams but I believe each does have some incentive and the Blue Jackets should be looking to add a player of this caliber to their team. Too much free cap can be a bad thing, especially as it explodes, and having some solid value to build around could be critical for the Blue Jackets.

These players would cost a first and much more but their capacity to slot other players on the roster down, or perhaps off the powerplay depending, could create a Stanley Cup worthy roster.

Filip Forsberg

One of the most unique and dominant power forwards in the game. Nashville isn’t considering stripping the roster down and he would command a tremendous package but he’s one of the few players that would merit moving Marchenko away from his positions.

I assume Nashville moves plenty of other players first and that he has no desire to waive his full NMC but it’s worth a shot.

Travis Konecny

One of the best newly created dynamic producers, it’s hard to imagine a better fit for a roster spot alongside Adam Fantilli. He can keep the pace, he can get the puck into the middle and he’s also signed long term.

The justification for moving him is similar to Forsberg, there isn’t any, but Philadelphia seems a bit stuck between. Tortorella is pulling the team close to the playoffs and Briere hasn’t found the franchise pillar talent (though Michkov certainly seems like it).

Troy Terry

Perhaps the only verifiably and consistently good player on the Ducks, Terry is a lot like a more rush-oriented Marchenko. Sublime puck handling and attacking, excellent playmaking and shooting. He’s the anchor around which the Ducks plan to develop their young talent but he deserves a mention.

Jordan Kyrou

Kyrou is an incredible rush player. Perhaps one of the best in the league. St. Louis, like Philadelphia and Nashville, seems without a clear direction for returning to contention. They love Kyrou, who has performed very well as a threat alongside Robert Thomas, but their D Corps is filled with immovable anchors.

He likely steps on the toes of Kent Johnson but there’s room in the roster to make it work.

Gabriel Vilardi

Gabe Vilardi is perhaps the single best fit for the roster. He’s similar to Voronkov in his capacity to facilitate wall and net-front play and might be the only upgrade possible for his position on the powerplay.

He’s currently part of Winnipeg’s dominant top-line but was traded there, doesn’t have an extension and is an RFA this upcoming offseason. He’s not getting traded in-season but remains a player to keep an eye on.

Owen Tippett

Tippett is perhaps the burlier, maybe pacier, version of Yegor Chinakhov. He recently signed an 8 year contract with Philadelphia but doesn’t seem to be taking more steps forward. Perhaps there’s some buyer’s remorse? It’s hard to see the Flyers moving on from either of their very good players but it’s hard to see much of a future for them anyway.

$6.25 million, and I’m sure they recognize this as well, will soon be a complete steal. They don’t need him to be better to validate the contract but he’s certainly someone who can be added for a pacey weakside threat.

The Kids Worth Saving Space For

Another section of players unlikely to be moved with teams whose incentives don’t exactly align with what the Blue Jackets have to offer. Perhaps if players like Mathieu Olivier or Boone Jenner were on the table a poor GM could be convinced to part with some young talent. Had Waddell not moved David Jiricek for currency, I could see him being a major piece of the returns for any of these players. Unfortunately, a futures only package seems hopeful at best.

The angle for these players doesn’t have to be for this upcoming season. In most cases, they are RFAs, which introduces a twinkle of hope. Perhaps their teams don’t want to pay their next contracts. Mostly, though, they are players to follow should they ever shake loose.

The sticking point here, at least for the Blue Jackets, is Gavin Brindley having somewhat similar potential as a couple of the players. They shouldn’t add someone that negates his potential long term and so not all of these players are easy fits. Brindley, though there doesn’t appear to be any desire for the Blue Jackets to test him in the NHL this season, looks like a nearly perfect system fit under Evason. He can play in small spaces, though he is undersized, and also looks like an incredible weakside threat as well. He already has built in chemistry with Adam Fantilli, to boot.

Zach Benson

I have long been a Benson fan who put together some truly deranged pitches to try to get an extra first to get him on the roster. His numbers this season, and especially his tape, look like a near perfect complement to the players that CBJ has on the roster. He’s undersized but he looks like he’ll soon be one of the best small space playmakers in the world and he’s already a possession driver.

I can’t imagine Buffalo giving up on him given he’s one of the few underlying bright spots on their team but they aren’t necessarily deploying him in a way that suggests they see him as good as he’s performing right now. He’s not scoring points and he’s not getting much icetime, perhaps there’s something amiss.

He’s left handed and has an additional year on his ELC.

Jackson Blake

In any viewings with Carolina, Blake’s hockey sense and playmaking leap off the page. Eric Tulsky is too smart to move him in any capacity and Rod Brind’Amour is rewarding him with excellent deployment. Still, he looks like a rockstar. He’s right handed and also has another year on his ELC.

Like a few other players on this list, Jackson Blake played with Adam Fantilli on the Chicago Steel in 2020-21.

Mackie Samoskevich

Mackie Samoskevich was Adam Fantilli’s linemate before Naurato moved Brindley up next to him. They played together at Chicago Steel as well. I was skeptical of including him as a trade target going into this season, though I liked what I saw in flashes last season, but he’s been incredible on tape. He’s an excellent handler who can navigate pressure with ease and is a versatile creator.

He’s right handed and an upcoming RFA, which would be the only hope of Florida moving him, but they also need cheap talent that can hang in their gap in the top six.

Tyson Foerster

Foerster is an impressive forechecker and athlete who displays some surprising off-wall handling ideas and is showing out this season as a potential fit as a third wheel type on a skill line. He played with Kent Johnson and Logan Stankoven on Canada’s World Junior team. I think the angle for him, from a Blue Jackets perspective, would be in creating a potentially unique pacey forechecking line formulated by Yegor Chinakhov - Adam Fantilli and himself. I can’t be sure he’s got the full skillset of Arturri Lehkonen but something in that mold. Ultimately, he could slide down alongside Boone Jenner as a right-handed matchup line wing.

He, too, feels difficult to imagine the Flyers moving. He looks born and bred for a Tortorella team. The only reason I imagine Philadelphia moving him is because he’s an RFA this upcoming offseason.

JJ Peterka

Peterka might have the highest likelihood on this list of moving due to his upcoming RFA status and Buffalos position as a team that might be operating on an internal cap. He has as many points at 5v5 this year as Necas did before he was traded and has been an excellent 5v5 rate scorer for the past two seasons. I imagine they move someone who is already being paid a salary, like Tuch, Power or Cozens, but you never know.

From my perspective, Peterka would be an excellent weakside creator. He stands out among the rest as a player who can play through pressure as well. He finds the middle of the ice for chance assists extremely well. While he profiles as an offensive wing more than a play driver, he might be one of the few players that can match Fantilli’s raw pace in both skating and decision making. This would allow Kent Johnson to play alongside Monahan and offer a good long-term option should the cap-ceiling destroy the RFA contract market.

Josh Doan

Doan is the third player on the list that played with Fantilli on the Chicago Steel. Each of the others was drafted out of the USHL, where Fantilli went to play another season for the Steel and then was drafted out of Michigan. I mention this only because during their development each of these players was exposed to the same ideas. I assume that translates to some shared collective understanding of the game, the Steel was a development powerhouse, which probably shows in these players’ excellent performance at a young age in the NHL.

Doan is a sturdy player with some interesting complementary ideas in transition and someone who should bring a modern approach to the netfront. He’s right handed, an upcoming RFA and doesn’t have a clear roster spot on a young Utah roster. That said, he’s the son of the franchise legend Shane Doan.

Dylan Holloway

Dylan Holloway was acquired in what now looks like an extreme heist from the Edmonton Oilers. He’s a big body and tenacious player who could very much already help the Blue Jackets add a young puck-retrieving dimension to their team. Why does St. Louis move on from a cheap, young player who they just pickpocketed from a contender? They probably don’t but he’s exactly the kind of low maintanence player who will give full value without powerplay time.

Barrett Hayton

Barrett Hayton’s underlying metrics are sterling. He also played plenty of the season between Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller. Does that mean the analytics have a distorted view? Probably yes. Are they also running out of roster room and need to take a step forward? yes.

Hayton, at least to me, looks like he could be the type of player to play a more low maintenance and supportive games. Like a sort of low-budget Sean Monahan. He’s not a direct fit and his position on the team would indeed clash with Cole Sillinger, should he stay in the center, but that might work for a team filled with good wings.

Given his numbers up to this point, he fits the profile of a matchup center better than Sillinger does. Perhaps he’s giving some back in terms of raw offensive potential or tools but might be a tradeoff that works in CBJ’s favor.

Wrap Up

This has been an unexpectedly long breakdown on potential roster moves. It’s a difficult time to theorize what the Blue Jackets might be looking for, made especially difficult by how unusual the rising cap could be.

If I were Don Waddell, I’d probably try to add both Rakell and Nyquist. I’m nervous about a wrist injury for Sean Monahan, so someone who can take faceoffs might be preferable, and also I’m worried about the injury to Yegor Chinakhov. Nothing structural to his back is good but he’s missed a lot of time so far in his career.

I intended to bring some suggestions for improving the defense and even looking forward to how offseason plans may contribute to selecting the right players this deadline.

I think Matt Duchene, potentially available this offseason, would be the perfect add to the Blue Jackets’ room. He could be offered a quite stupid sum of money in an Orlov to Carolina type short term deal and that would very much fit CBJ’s cap window.

His approach to the game, especially in creating post-entry, is exactly what Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli need to improve. He’s good within contact in small spaces and he shouldn’t stick around too long. By all accounts, he wanted to stay in Columbus after the playoff run as well (the additional first on re-signing and Panarin leaving made it untenable).

Furthermore, I’m more and more impatient in waiting for Gavin Brindley. You can’t put a timeline on his development, and especially can’t count on Duchene jumping ship in free agency, but I’m eager to fill some roster spots around the edges. This team has momentum and it should be used to leap out of a rebuild. My competing desires to fill spots and leave flexibility remain difficult.

The defense is perhaps a bit “easier.” The Blue Jackets need some rush defending, preferably a shutdown pair, and there are certain players who might be available this offseason: Vladislav Gavrikov, K’Andre Miller and Dylan Samberg. Perhaps some of the assets not spent at this deadline can be put towards those ends.

It would help to get a bona-fide matchup line from forwards who can ease some of the burden so I suppose determining whether Sillinger can be that guy with the help of Jenner and maybe Chinakhov is of utmost importance.