Targets to Improve the Blue Jackets' Defense

Understanding the CBJ defense improvement options isn’t trivial. Really, nothing in hockey is, which is why I started the last trade target breakdown in much the same way.

I mentioned a bit in the last breakdown than many defensive improvements would come simply by becoming more efficient in rush offense but also by recovering more pucks and juicing shot totals.

Some of the forward targets could start the type of feedback loop that drives the roster to success in this direction. Before we go too far down the “targets to help” road though, it’s worth discussing a bit about how the CBJ numbers might not be as bad as they seem.

Under the hood, the Blue Jackets are a below average defensive team, perhaps one of the worst in the NHL. Their goaltending has been up and down but in-zone the Blue Jackets play 95% great hockey. The shot totals might be poor, and significant breakdowns still too many, but they’re disrupting shooting lanes and making it difficult to play. They’re making it hard to get quality chances through to the net when they aren’t making major gaffes.

The numbers are hard to believe but there’s a material difference to the CBJ playing hard and the more wayward defensive approaches of some of the other wildcard hopefuls. Perhaps that means there’s less potential to improve but if CBJ can ride the momentum of their shorthanded wins and take steps forward when fully healthy, there’s plenty of reason to buy into rapid underlying improvement.

The Blue Jackets are not a contender and making the playoffs this season wouldn’t make them a contender, it would just mean they made the playoffs ahead of schedule. There are some big pieces missing for the Blue Jackets in order to consider themselves a team capable of year-in year-out success. Namely best in the league players, though Monahan and Marchenko certainly performed to that level this season, and Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson have the offensive firepower, or project to have it in the near future (Cayden Lindstrom as well), but I’m focused here primarily on defense.

Matchup Roles

Most championship teams have stars in defensive roles and very specifically have players that can match other top players and still help tilt the ice. They have matchup lines who can play defensive hockey and they have matchup defense pairs that make life difficult. The Blue Jackets don’t have either of those and no one on the roster that really feels like they’ll be in that role shortly.

Cole Sillinger has taken those duties, oftentimes alongside Kent Johnson, and though he has some individual stats that paint his improvement he doesn’t look like the sort of stable backbone that normally plays that position. Largely, that’s okay. The time to optimise for defense comes as the Blue Jackets prove they are year-in-year out contenders.

I will concede that it’s possible that Adam Fantilli and Cayden Lindstrom develop into the type of centers that mean a pure matchup line isn’t exactly necessary, especially when considering Sean Monahan sliding down the roster if they are hitting best case development outcomes, which is a good thing, but I would also point out that Florida has Barkov, the best matchup forward in the game, but still filled their roster with Sam Bennet and Anton Lundell.

In any case, they may need to improve and add some defensive players (Boone Jenner has a place on the wing though only two years on his contract and Sean Monahan is good but might be miscast as a pure shutdown presence in the short term). Forwards should not be underestimated for their defensive impact but distributed defensive effort across defensemen will likely be the top priority.

Zach Werenski has proved his chops against top competition this season, and has looked good at the Four Nations, and perhaps the Blue Jackets believe that Denton Mateychuk and Charlie Elick develop into those type of defensemen. Still, Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson, whoever you’d like to choose from third pair responsibilities, don’t exactly exude defensive confidence.

This all said, I think waiting for Adam Fantilli, Cayden Lindstrom, Cole Sillinger, Denton Mateychuk and Charlie Elick (or even Kent Johnson or Gavin Brindley if you buy into their conributions from the wing) to mature fully into top flight matchup players might be leaving plenty of competitive value on the table. Don Waddell will have to ride a fine line between being patient and flexible in acquisitions while also pushing his team forward. The playoffs are a great place for young players to be.

Perhaps the breakdown of a total roster defensive optimization would be better served for the offseason as Waddell has only given indication on acquiring some goalscoring forward talent but I think it’s worth looking into the market now particularly because of how it informs spending capital (or moving roster assets) going into the deadline.

Initially, I intended to look into the forward component a little more especially because the outcomes might have significant implications on who might be available as a trade chip (as in Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov or Boone Jenner) but the injuries have made that conjecture difficult. At this point, getting two of those three back will help Don Waddell gather the information he needs to make decisions.

The Blue Jackets aren’t likely finding long-term shutdown forwards (though Gus Nyquist is an excellent PKer and Tyson Foerster could be a very fascinating component) until this offseason or later.

The Defense

The biggest retool needs to happen among the D corps. Though I believe there’s plenty of room to quibble with the statistical representation of Zach Werenski vs Damon Severson, the “xG mountain” from the early regular season games against Washington, LA and San jose is doing a lot of work promoting Damon Severson and David Jiricek, the rest grade out as a handful of 4/5 defenders.

Except for Denton Mateychuk, the Blue Jackets shouldn’t be particularly married to defensemen who haven’t distinguished themselves. Dante Fabbro has a great angle given his good Werenski enabling skillset and potential for extreme cap-efficiency but even then an improvement should still be pursued.

There are a couple of avenues that must be significantly improved, the propensity for some poor turnovers chief among them. The team has been generally better in this area under Dean Evason but the riskiness and volatility of Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson and Erik Gudbranson is a big issue. They’ve never been great puck movers, better classified as risky ones, and none are good enough defensively to make up for it.

That said, each of those players is different.

I’ll start with Damon Severson who has the capacity to single handedly make the defensive group much better. He’s one of the best right handed neutral zone defenders in the league and his capacity to link the turnovers he creates with quick strike offense, and especially in his slot playmaking and movement in zone, can help bring a dynamic offensive element to a team that is still young and figuring it out.

Last season, he made major gaffes but his regular play outside of them was still good enough to merit ice time. Oftentimes, our eyes and brains can exaggerate big mistakes and cause us to ignore the vast number of very good things a player does outside of those big moments. This season, it’s been worse and Evason has taken his icetime. The Blue Jackets need him to figure it out or he’s only useful as a sheltered 3rd pairing defenseman.

Ivan Provorov and Erik Gudbranson formed one of the worst shutdown pairings in the league last season. They ate hard minutes and a lot of the penalty killing and so frequently turned over the puck in their own zone, often even when attempting to clear the puck rather than make a possession play, that it was absolutely bewildering that the coach kept playing them.

This season, Gudbranson hasn’t really played. Theoretically, he can step up and hit guys in the neutral zone, and that should work for Dean Evason, but it’s his over involved offense, and generally poor resulting quality, that is the biggest issue. He’ll need to find a way to not take a poor point shot every time he gets the puck in the offensive zone. If he finds a way to carve space and allow Denton Mateychuk to get the most puck touches, perhaps there’s an angle for continued positive contribution. He’s liked in the room and the Blue Jackets aren’t exactly short of cap-space.

Ivan Provorov continues in his role much the same as last year. Early in the season he was a “stay-at-home” partner on Werenski’s right side. He works in that role but still has some, in my opinion, quite glaring weaknesses that continue to show themselves. He is generally in the right position and has a solid stick and no fear in blocking shots. He’s not afraid to do the dirty work that can help a more talented defenseman shine, perhaps why he was the first partner for Denton Mateychuk.

The weaknesses: he can’t pivot and doesn’t have the skating to aggressively challenge in the neutral zone. That’s a big issue for the Blue Jackets and one of the key reasons David Jiricek was untenable going forward.

In any case, we can’t really expect that to improve. Provorov always been this level of neutral zone defenseman and I think it’s an area of significant weakness for the club. In a system like Evason’s, creating neutral zone turnovers (or capably defending last back with fleet skating) is a gateway to winning games.

Minnesota had some of the best neutral zone killers including Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Jake Middleton, Matt Dumba and even a brief glimpse of Brock Faber, though he’s more of a “force to the outside” and then stall out type defender.

In my viewings, he also has a frustrating tendency to pass the puck off to players who are under more pressure than he is. This can put his partners in bad positions and this tendency partially explains the complete rancid chemistry between him and Damon Severson, who tries to beat pressure with skilled plays and refuses to bail out of bad situations by eating a puck.

Sometimes he’s been a better puck mover but never consistent and never a real force in any direction. At the end of the day, Provorov’s RAPM and AllThreeZones paint the picture of Provorov well. He’s fine, at best. He is not a quality player that should merit a long term extension or a roster spot over someone who could be an improvement which means the Blue Jackets have to make a choice about how to handle him. In a best case scenario, he is swapped for someone

Which brings me to the next player: Dante Fabbro who you might also have noticed is among the worst defenders at preventing chances after entry. He has come in and rejuvenated the D corps simply by being a right handed puck mover with enough last back acumen to make it work next to Zach Werenski (shoutout Roman Josi for the training). He’s really not that different from Ivan Provorov but he’s put some seasons together that suggest he has more utility and I think he puts his partners in better situations when he gives them the puck. Also, he’s right handed and doesn’t have the name recognition that merits a big contract.

Each year for Fabbro has been an adventure, showing incredible range and a different skillset each year, sometimes a perfect puck mover, activator and neutral zone defender and sometimes a poor neutral zone defender and completely in active in creating zone entries. In 2022-23 he played most of his time away from Roman Josi.

For whatever reason, his puck retrieving has taken a hit this season (perhaps some forward, system or sample size effects) but he’s previously been quite good. The way Corey Sznajder tracks “failed exits and botched retrievals” does not mesh too well with Evason’s preference for hard rimmed pucks over plays.

At the right dollar amount, Fabbro is an incredible addition to the D corps and, though he might not be an elite complementary defenseman, his work with Werenski suggests he’s as good as it gets outside of one. More time to find a better player is the worst outcome of a Fabbro extension. (The rising cap is going to throw new contracts into the lurch, so the “right dollar amount” might be higher that we expect).

This brings us to our last and perhaps most significant defenseman to focus on: Denton Mateychuk. He’s young and I think he’s going to be a significant factor for the Blue Jackets throughout his career. He is performing much in the way that Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger are: good with flashes of great but still not quite ready to take those tough minutes and lead a team to the playoffs.

It’s very easy to see him filling the role that Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov do, being a retriever and dirty work doer, with puck moving acumen and some extra neutral zone defending utility as early as next year but I think that would also wash out a lot of the special potential of Denton Mateychuk.

If we give him the time and space, and perhaps he improves on some of his top-end skating output, and we get Moose Jaw Mateychuk we’re looking at a Devon Toews/Gustav Forsling type defenseman who is maybe a little offense leaning. Maybe that makes him Brandon Montour but I wouldn’t denigrate the previous two’s offensive chops either.

His work on retrievals, though he’s sometimes outmatched by NHLers strength and speed, is rapidly improving. He has incredibly projectable habits and has already changed the way the Blue Jackets attack up-ice with his presence of mind. He’s great at finding the middle and he’s even better as an incredibly early neutral zone defender. His vision and activity level in the offensive zone are growing by the game and we might not have to wait too long to feel a bigger impact.

If Mateychuk continues to grow on the penalty kill, or finds chemistry with Damon Severson, perhaps that makes Ivan Provorov completely expendable sooner rather than later.

A Contending D Corps

At this point, we must talk about where The Blue Jackets are vs where they’re going. Most defense corps of cup champions feature a legitimate 1D with a complementary defenseman, a shutdown pair and a third pair featuring a dynamic offensive defenseman who is capable of shifting up in the lineup. Typically these players have a similar sort of look but recent cup champions are proving that puck movers and shut down defensemen can be distributed between first and second pairs and not deployed too rigidly.

Hedman played with Rutta/Bogosian, McDonagh/Cernak as shutdown and Sergachev as the offensive defenseman. Florida played Forsling (legitimate 1D but also shutdown) with Ekblad, Mikkola with Montour (which is very much a neutral zone killer and prime puck mover) and OEL on the third pair. Vegas played Pietrangelo with Martinez, Theodore with McNabb and Hague-Whitecloud as a matchup pair. Colorado played a very different mold with Toews-Makar, Byram-Manson and the Johnsons.

The formula isn’t incredibly rigid but you need a pair capable of winning tough matchups and some pairs capable of creating plenty of offense. If you have a perfect shutdown 1D, like Forsling or Toews or even Heiskanen, you can use them as the shutdown pair and build flexibility underneath.

Dallas has Heiskanen-Harley-Lindell as their axis of good defensemen, Edmonton plays Ekholm-Bouchard as perfect complements and, for better or worse, has a tentpole activator in Darnell Nurse.

The Blue Jackets should be aware of the depth of talented defensemen, recognize what they have in Werenski and Mateychuk and recognize where they have to go with the rest of the defensemen, Damon Severson especially. If fully healthy, perhaps they deploy Provorov-Gudbranson as a shutdown pair, though I’m skeptical of it’s performance, then it’s easy enough to see Mateychuk-Severson as a Murray-Nutivaara type third pair all the same. Late in games or in specific situations, Mateychuk or Severson can shift up next to Werenski to get more offense.

Most good teams have elite neutral zone stoppers on their team. The Blue Jackets have a facsimile in Damon Severson, though he doesn’t necessarily have the raw combativeness that some of the best have, and have Werenski playing much better in that regard, but none have the full shutdown chops of Miro Heiskanen, Devon Toews, Jaccob Slavin, Mattias Ekholm, Gustav Forsling or even prime Hedman.

In my opinion, finding a defenseman who can lock down the best puck carriers and create plenty of

The Market

Selling or Out of Playoffs:

• Buffalo Sabres

• Montreal Canadiens

• Philadelphia Flyers

• St. Louis Blues

• Nashville Predators

• Pittsburgh Penguins

• Seattle Kraken

• Anaheim Ducks

• Chicago Blackhawks

• San Jose Sharks

Deadline Decisions

• Calgary Flames

• Utah Hockey Club

• New York Rangers

• New York Islanders

• Detroit Red Wings

• Boston Bruins

• Vancouver Canucks

Determining Considerations

The problem with the Blue Jackets’ quest for improving their defense is that most of the rest of the league is also looking for improvements there. They’re overloaded with left handed defensemen, as is the rest of the league, and are desperate for the type of right handed defenseman that is a perfect complement to heavy activation puck movers. For the most part, that doesn’t exist. Damon Severson, assuming he didn’t have many of the flaws he has, is pretty much as good as it gets.

The other lock-down neutral zone defenders and complementary defensemen are pretty much all left-handed: Devon Toews, Mattias Ekholm, Mikey Anderson, Devon Toews, Miro Heiskanen of a sort, Gustav Forsling and Jaccob Slavin. Matt Grzelyck, Ryan Lindgren have aged out quite quickly, perhaps Hampus Lindholm and Ryan McDonagh can be included there as well.

I can’t really think of many complementary right handed defensemen to support eagerly active left handed defensemen. Dante Fabbro was perhaps the most notable, Filip Hronek in Vancouver is more of a puck mover, Aaron Ekblad takes up space and works along the walls well, Brett Pesce in New Jersey seems to work well. Chris Tanev is likely the best option, or Ryan Pulock for a shutdown pair, but he’s more of a suppressor and puck mover than he is a neutral zone killer.

Good right handed defensemen are rare and highly prized, part of the reason moving David Jiricek was so shocking at this stage, and will likely not be added without significant risk or cost. The Blue Jackets have drafted Charlie Elick and Luca Marrelli and though they have some interesting skills and shapes but the Blue Jackets shouldn’t be waiting on their arrival to fix the defensive issues.

What I’m most keen to express with this writing is that filling the gaps in the Blue Jackets’ roster will require compromise. Perhaps that’s why they are considering extending Ivan Provorov, though I would insist that they look for better.

Ivan Provorov Replacement

First, let’s look at what Provorov does for the Blue Jackets.

Number one: he plays a bunch of minutes. This usually means the coach thinks he’s doing something good.

Number two, is first over the boards on the penalty kill.

The Blue Jackets have used Provorov and Gudbranson in the vast majority of penalty killing minutes the past two seasons. It’s been a bad unit but perhaps it would be worse without them.

Provorov plays against tough competition. Not the most tough, though, that goes to Zach Werenski. Getting Werenski the best possible partner might be priority 1 but Provorov doesn’t take sheltered matchups either and does eat defensive zone starts.

One of my earliest ventures on Substack was in examining the options for an offseason “Gavrikov Replacement” after Jarmo Kekelainen moved him at the trade deadline. The crux of that breakdown, cut short by a certain acquisition, was that Ivan Provorov was not the best option.

I ended with this list:

The Veteran Trade Candidates:

• Cam Fowler

• Ryan McDonagh

• Nick Leddy

• Derek Forbort

Longer-Term

• Noah Hanifin

• Sam Girard

• K’Andre Miller

• Sean Durzi

Upside Bets

• Dylan Samberg

• JJ Moser

Free Agents

• Ryan Graves

• Carson Soucy

• Dmitri Orlov

What’s interesting is how many of those defensemen still fill the needs of the Blue Jacekts, some still better in my opinion, should move they move on from Ivan Provorov.

After doing the scouting research, the two players I personally advocated for, Dylan Samberg and K’Andre Miller, remain the best targets to replace Ivan Provorov as it currently stands, let alone Vladislav Gavrikov who might ironically be the best defenseman to have behind Zach Werenski through the remainder of his contract.

What Dylan Samberg lacks in experience, he makes up for in excellent underlying numbers and habits. CBJ would be wise to pony-up for him before he breaks out.

That isn’t to say they were made available but does vouch for the validity of analytics at predicting some future outcomes.

Formal Considerations

Primary:

• Play-Driving

• Penalty Killing

• Play Against Top Competition

Secondary:

• Right Handed

• Neutral Zone Killing

• Retrievals > Exits

The defensemen, in general, will be more far ranging and risky than the forward targest. As I said above, it may require compromise. There are fewer places to hide bad defensemen so each one might be a little more important.

Puck moving is always important but Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro, Denton Mateychuk and Damon Severson are all good so finding some complements takes priority.

Errata Note

In the graphs below, I mistakenly assigned St. Louis with fringe status. I recently watched a press conference from Doug Armstrong, St. Louis’ GM, which firmly entrenches them on the Seller list and perhaps makes Jordan Kyrou more of a target than I had planned for. In any case, St. Louis has mostly terrible and old defense, so not much to worry about.

Above is a plot of the PuckIQ data. It is CTOI% alongside CF%RC filtered by defensemen who have played above 150 minutes against Elite Competition this season. Essentially, this tells us which defensemen a coach most deploys against top competition (anything above 28% is top matchups but this cohort is above that league average) and how well they perform in those minutes relative to their team.

If we use Zach Werenski as a model, he both gets a great percentage of his already staggering minutes against elite compeition and he’s also one of the top performing defensemen relative to his team within those minutes. Compared with Quinn Hughes, he doesn’t dominate to the same degree but he is also used against top competition more often.

These aren’t perfect metrics but they do classify, at least to some extent, how much a defenseman helps in their minutes against the best players. There are plenty of other factors such as the context of that deployment, the forwards on the ice with them and even how good or bad the rest of their team is, but it’s generally a favorable statistic.

It’s a narrow snapshot of a very specific and not necessarily proven repeatable metric but it gives a good idea of who would be the best bets to slide into a matchup pairing and we could expect to drive play.

To further emphasize that point, among all defensemen Werenski (5), Gavrikov (11), Samberg (14) and K’Andre Miller (34) are all among the top performers against said competition (by CF% above team rel), moreso if players who don’t play at least 30% of their TOI against the bucket are filtered out (Werenski - 3, Gavrikov - 6, Samberg - 7, K’Andre Miller - 19).

Now, I have filtered the plot once again by a team’s predicted deadline status though I haven’t done any work to filter out any other players. Just because Quinn Hughes or Rasmus Dahlin are listed as fringe candidates and sellers doesn’t mean those players specifically will be available.

There are a couple of ways to use this chart. You could believe that a simple reduction in time against elites could move a player up on the CF% chart and hope to get better performance out of them, you could take a player who plays more and hope that by reducing Zach Werenski’s minutes against elite competition he improves by enough to offset the hypothetical losses or you could add a player who has been sheltered and hope they are ready to take the next step.

This is a partial snapshot and doesn’t represent the total of Ivan Provorov’s duties, which also amount to playing against other matchups (dominating or suppressing less than elite matchups is also important) and on the penalty kill, so lets continue to more broad metrics.

Standouts:

Sellers:

Positive: Mattias Samuelsson, Connor Murphy, Cam York, Vince Dunn, Owen Power

Sheltered: Jackson LaCombe, Wyatt Kaiser

Negative: Savard, Oleksiak, Larsson, Thrun

Fringe:

Positive: K’Andre Miller, Adam Pelech, Philip Broberg, Noah Dobson

Sheltered: Daniil Miromanov, Mason Lohrei, Andrew Peeke

Negative: Justin Faulk, Ryan Suter, Carson Soucy, Ryan Pulock

Buyers:

Positive: Aaron Ekblad, Vladislav Gavrikov, Dylan Samberg, Nick Jensen

Sheltered: Nick Perbix

Negative: Nicolas Hague, Zach Whitecloud, Ty Emberson, Darnell Nurse, Josh Manson, Troy Stecher

Neutral Zone Stopping

I think the best way to describe whether a defenseman is good or not is by how they tilt the ice. We could be worried about how well they keep offense to the outside, especially in the defensive zone, but that’s going to be quite volatile depending on defensive system. I could just break apart EvolvingHockey’s GAR metrics and sort by defensive impact, and I have looked through that data, but at the end of the day I think RAPM Corsi Differential is going to be a very clean simple metric that works with the Corsi Rel against Elites that I used up above.

The other metric I will be using will be more subjective and it has to do with AllThreeZones stats with respect to getting stops and preventing injuries in the defensive zone. This isn’t a complete picture of defensemen, retrievals, exits and other puck moving all contribute to their ability to both create and suppress offense, but it gives us a very important view.

As I said before, the Blue Jackets really need some stopping power in the neutral zone and AllThreeZones’s Entry Defense Gamescore is the best way to capture the skills of a defenseman in that regard. This gamescore metric is a hybrid approach measuring the number of controlled entries allowed, the number of entry denials and the number of entries leading to chances. Instead of looking at only aggressive players we get the full picture. These numbers are certainly influenced by the team system and teammates on the ice.

The chart aboves combines AllThreeZones, RAPM Corsi Differential and uses TOI against Elite Competition to determine dot size. This gives us a variety of metrics to make the most important determinations as it relates to finding a neutral zone stopper.

RAPM Corsi Differential tells us which players help drive shot differential advantages. While it may be tempting to assume we only want shot attempt suppresssion, and it might be an angle to find a situational role player, total shot differential is better. Defending is important but if it doesn’t also turn into offense your team might not be any better off. It might also be that the coach is asking specific things of you or that you’re playing without talent as well.

Time Against Elites helps us nudge some numbers in our heads that might be distorting the regression algorithm. Creating shot differentials is good no matter what but if a player mostly destroys low level competition we would be taking a risk in adding them to the roster if we don’t intend to use them in that specific role.

The top-left quadrant is filled with high level puck moving defensemen. They don’t defend entries all that well perhaps because they are so good at playing in the offensive zone or perhaps because they sag back and try to get jumpstarts on puck retrievals. Most good teams pair these players with neutral zone stopping partners.

The players are not filtered for availability but still color coded by my subjective deadline status assignment of their team.

Standouts:

Sellers:

Positive: Luke Schenn, Jackson LaCombe, Vince Dunn, Jeremy Lauzon, Owen Pickering, Kaiden Guhle, Connor Murphy, Mattias Samuelsson, Cam York, Egor Zamula

Not Good NZ: Owen Power, Rasmus Ristolainen

Negative: Radko Gudas, Pavel Mintyukov, Henry Thrun, Timothy Liljegren, Jacob Trouba, Justin Faulk

Fringe:

Positive: Adam Pelech, Derek Forbort, Noah Dobson

Not Good NZ: K’Andre Miller, Michael Kesselring, Olli Maatta

Bad: Ben Chiarot, Ryan Lindgren, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers

Buyers:

Positive: Vladislav Gavrikov, Dylan Samberg, Brent Burns, Johnathan Kovacevic

Good But Sheltered: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Walker, Jordan Spence, Brenden Smith, Nils Lundkvist

Not Good NZ: Jalen Chatfield, Sam Girard, Nick Perbix(Sheltered), Colin Miller (Sheltered)

Bad: Troy Stecher, Nic Hague, Dmitry Kulikov, Darren Raddysh

Penalty Killing

To take a look at penalty killing, I’ll use both advanced analytics models that Evolving Hockey publishes. They haven’t published their writeups for their xGAR models so I can’t be sure how to explain the difference. I’m told that GAR is more “descriptive” about what happens on-ice, perhaps closer to GameScore, and xGAR is more “predictive” though it is not as simple as using xGoals vs actual Goals.

In any case, the models align with eachother pretty neatly. The point isn’t to use one model or the other but to demonstrate how good players on with respect to penalty killing. The list is filtered for defenseman who have played at least 400 minutes in all situations and at least 20 of those minutes have to have been shorthanded.

Though Ivan Provorov is the Blue Jackets’ top penalty killer, and we want to accurately compensate for that performance, these metrics have a tendency to be volatile and aren’t necessarily worth overemphasizing with respect to the rest of the game. A single defender only has so much impact on a penalty kill outside of their teammates, coaching systems and goaltending.

Still, Ivan Provorov grades out quite well and we know that he’s first over the boards which means he soaks some of the most difficult minutes against top powerplays. Let’s not be flippant about what he brings to the table.

Standouts:

Sellers:

Positive: Owen Power, Connor Clifton, Wyatt Kaiser, Seth Jones, Rasmus Ristolainen, Connor Murphy, Henry Thrun

Negative: Seattle, Anaheim Defensemen, Cody Ceci

Fringe:

Positive: K’Andre Miller, Braden Schneider, Derek Forbort, Nikita Zadorov

Negative: Carson Soucy, Nick Jensan, Ian Cole, Ben Chiarot, Kevin Bahl

Buyers:

Positive: Johnathan Kovacevic, Jordan Spence, Nate Schmidt, Brent Burns, Dylan Samberg

Negative: Dmitry Orlov, Simon Benoit, Brenden Dillon, Dylan Demelo, Darnell Nurse, Nicolas Hague, Vladislav Gavrikov

The Targets

For the most part, the same defensemen are repeated but acquiring many of these remains incredibly complicated and unlikely. As specifically deadline targets, there are even fewer. On one hand, perhaps that drives Ivan Provorov’s price up as more teams seek to bolster their roster with a name brand defenseman who can come in at quite a low price.

When looking to find the best players on a contender, the offseason remains the most prized time to acquire one of these players. One, good teams keep them for the playoffs. Two, they might not be able to keep them as their deal expires. Perhaps a contender, rather than an aspiring one, feels they need more flexibility or wasn’t totally satisfied in the playoffs. The Blue Jackets don’t have to worry about that quite yet, focus one will be getting there in the first place.

For that reason, the Blue Jackets may not make major waves on the defensive front at the trade deadline. If they decide to sell Ivan Provorov or are given an offer they can’t refuse, perhaps they look for a short term depth add to float the penalty kill through the end of the season.

Most likely, though, I think they keep Provorov and go big game hunting this offseason. For that reason, I’ll start there.

Pending Free Agents

Most of the great defensemen across these metrics play on teams listed as “Buyers” and therefore you should be suspicious of their inclusion. Why would a team give up a good player, especially one so important for contending? I don’t think they would, save one or two, but nearly all that I have included have expiring contracts this offseason.

Should the Blue Jackets hold Provorov for competitive integrity in season, these will be their targets in the offseason.

Vladislav Gavrikov - UFA

Neutral Zone Killer, Shutdown Defenseman, Activator, Penalty Killer

Tragic irony, perhaps, that Jarmo Kekelainen traded away the better defenseman at the deadline and then spent more assets to get Ivan Provorov who isn’t quite as good of a role fit. He’s on record saying he has spent the past two seasons learning to enjoy living in LA and wants to sign a long term deal there. Bad news for the Blue Jackets, but perhaps there are big AAV short term shenanigans to be pulled.

Vladislav Gavrikov is the single best archetypal fit for a defenseman to play behind Zach Werenski. This past season, he did it on the right side for a long period of time as well. Whether he joins Werenski in that position, helps Mateychuk, or forms a shutdown pair with Fabbro or Severson, he would bring ultimate flexibility as well.

The cost, as with all UFA signings, is the question. If the Blue Jackets can pony up the appetite to offer him a very high AAV and short term deal (a la Orlov under Waddell in Carolina), perhaps there’s an angle.

Jakob Chychrun - UFA

Neutral Zone Killer, Puck Retriever, Goal Scorer, Activator

Jakob Chychrun, perhaps, was the one that got away from Jarmo Kekelainen. He pursued him strongly before trading away Gavrikov and perhaps was desperate in his finding of the next best player. Provorov was the wrong choice but the Blue Jackets might get a second crack at him come this offseason.

He’s scoring plenty of points and has a plus level shot. The Blue Jackets love shooters and defensemen who can score will bring a lot of value. The idea of Chychrun, of a player who is imposing and aggressive, certainly fills the gap that the Blue Jackets have. Under the surface, though, Chychrun isn’t as much of a defensive stopper or shot suppressor as you’d like.

Going back a few seasons and there are hints that he can staunchly defend the neutral zone but we haven’t seen it much since his days in Arizona. You’d likely be paying a lot of money to get him in UFA and paying for his PP2 scoring as well. The Blue Jackets don’t have a John Carlson and Damon Severson might already be too similar to Chychrun to stamp approval on this acquisition.

The idea of Chychrun, tempting though it may be, moves in advance of his actual on-ice impact. If he commits to a shutdown role, there’s plenty of potential, but that’s a tough risk to take at the Blue Jackets’ spot in their competitive cycle.

Aaron Ekblad - UFA

Shutdown Defenseman, Crease Clearer

Aaron Ekblad, Stanley Cup Champion, certainly has a nice ring to it. He’s 29 years old and might have plenty of good years left should the injuries stay away. The problem is that his injuries have destroyed his skating. It’s not pretty and there’s reason to believe that his defensive metrics and neutral zone defending are largely carried by system, forwards and especially Gustav Forsling.

Still, Ekblad’s forechecking metrics are outrageous, owing to the aggressive up-ice Florida system and he’s got some savvy along the walls in the defensive zone that shouldn’t be underestimated. If Denton Mateychuk is to be the next neutral zone stopper with some do-everything flavor, perhaps Ekblad is an excellent mentor as he grows into the role.

It’s hard to imagine Ekblad coming at a savory price and his poor skating leads me to believe it’s not the best fit. At the right term and AAV, it’s certainly an option.

Johnathan Kovacevic - UFA

Neutral Zone Killer, Shutdown Defenseman

Johnathan Kovecevic has had something of a breakout year as a defensive stopper for the New Jersey Devils. His impact has been waning as of late, and perhaps more credit should go to his partner Jonas Siegenthaler, but Kovacevic very much looks to play the role of a neutral zone killer.

He’s had good underlying metrics for years in a depth role and probably had some effect on Jordan Harris’ underlying numbers in Montreal as well. It remains to be seen whether he can perfectly fit with talent without dragging down the offense, but his chance assists/60 give some room for optimism.

New Jersey has a full blue-line, especially on the right side. He’ll be one to watch going into the playoffs. Does his performance wane or does New Jersey make some room for Simon Nemec or Seamus Casey? If not, the Blue Jackets won’t be the only suitors but perhaps there’s more short term high AAV shenanigans to pull him in while still figuring the rest out.

Dylan Samberg - RFA

Shutdown Defenseman, All-Around, Last-Back

The only reason Dylan Samberg is on this list is because of his breakout defensive season on the Winnipeg Jets. Like Gabe Vilardi, he’d be a perfect fit for the Blue Jackets’ roster but is highly unlikely to move. He’s a good proof of concept, though also dangerous, for using early signs of play-driving indicated by RAPM.

There are some red flags. His neutral zone defending has become quite aggressive but also very porous. He doesn’t necessarily have the skating to be as aggressive as asked. Even with that accounted for, his defensive performance is unimpeachable. Perhaps he’s being assisted by the Jets’ system and context but he does enough elsewhere that there’s plenty to like.

The only hope for the Blue Jackets is that Winnipeg finds reason to not pay him this upcoming offseason and really likes something on the Blue Jackets’ roster.

K’Andre Miller

Neutral Zone Killer, Shutdown Defenseman, Goal Scorer, Activator

K’Andre Miller has been rumored to be on the block during a tumultuous season for the Rangers. I wondered if they would move him, or someone else to make room, last season but instead they punted on a two year contract and got a new coach. Personally, I think Miller is the perfect fit for a defenseman behind Werenski and in Evason’s system.

There’s definitely some risk involved, he’s made some poor choices with the puck, but his neutral zone stopping upside might be unmatched among other targets. He’s huge, a smooth skater and excellent with his stick. So why, then, are his entry defending numbers so poor? Fundamentally I believe this to be a system issue.

K’Andre Miller broke out in 2021-22 and 2022-2023 when he played on a shutdown pair next to Jacob Trouba and underneath Gerard Gallant. I checked Jack Han’s hockey tactics and what do you know, he deployed a very similar D-active system to the one currently run by Dean Evason.

In those seasons, Miller graded out as an excellent suppressor of shots and driver of play but not necessarily someone perfectly aligned in danger. According to MoneyPuck he’s one of the best natural finishers among defenseman which helps a lot for a team that puts them in shooting situations so often.

He’s a little unstable from a Mateychuk partner perspective but he looks like the best bet, and his RFA status would give Waddell heavy flexibility on contract length, to form a shutdown pair in the short term. He could play next to Damon Severson whose slot passing ability would pair excellently with Miller’s activating or even next to Fabbro which could allow him to run free.

In any case, his play this season isn’t without risk. He is having a down season and there have been plenty of hair-pulling gaffes. But there’s not a player who I’d feel more confident would look better in a system made by Dean Evason.

Noah Dobson

High Level Puck Mover, Activator

The potential availability of Noah Dobson has been difficult to parse. Lou Lamoriello runs a tight ship and leaks are treated with utmost severity. It’s easy, then, for all of those rumors to be simply speculation from a media that is starved of all other information. Perhaps, though, the lack of long-term contract and changed agent are as good as it gets. Painting Lamoriello as a dinosaur who doesn’t want to pay a young defensemen might be tempting or easy but he’s been almost painfully reticent to change course or move good talent off of the roster.

In any case, Dobson, like Elias Pettersson, is a player who requires consideration. He put up a 70 point season in 2023-2024 and is a supremely good puck mover. On top of that, his neutral zone defending is excellent. His RAPM this season suggests an excellent all-around defender and play-driver.

So what’s the catch? Why would Lamoriello consider giving this player up? The answer might be in his next contract. According to Jack Han there are some skill deficiencies that might make a GM hesitate to pay Dobson the true 1D money that his production and play-time demand.

As someone with an outside view & who's also watched him play since QMJHL, he's got everything that a top-pair NHL D needs, except the effortless mobility. This forces him to take some chances on how he plays, which will occasionally backfire.

If Dobson's team can find him the right lefthanded D partner, then I don't see a problem with them as a top pair.

Perhaps, then, Dobson is well insulated by the New York Islander’s conservative playstyle and very intense defensive forwards. That said, why would Denton Mateychuk not be that type of partner for him? Zach Werenski, though clearly talented, wasn’t without warts. His motor ran low and he puck watched. His skating was indeed effortless but who is to say Dobson can’t improve there?

That makes the matter of Noah Dobson come down to risk. Can the Blue Jackets get him on a contract that makes his potential deficiency worth it? The Blue Jackets would have to be paying Dobson for point performance on the powerplay and unlikely to put him there given Werenski’s renaissance. His contract, with arbitration rights, would be signed under the cap-rising context.

What would he cost to peel from the Islanders and what would the Blue Jackets have to pay him on a long-term contract? Is there a middle-ground that can be found? I’m not sure. It’s always difficult to draw up deals with Lamoriello.

Mason Lohrei - RFA

Puck Mover, Neutral Zone Potential,Activator

Mason Lohrei is one of the first in a wave of super tall but not necessarily overly physical young defensemen. He, like his contemporary Alex Vlasic, have put together some truly stunning puck moving and playmaking sequences on tape.

Ultimately, he’s still defensively raw. He could be a good add for the Blue Jackets but I don’t see incentive for Boston to move on. Good to keep in mind and continue to monitor as the seasons progress but not a serious target this offseason.

Big Fish Under Contract

Owen Power

High End Puck Mover, Goal Scorer, Special Activator

Owen Power, like plenty of the other young and talented defensemen, doesn’t exactly fit the role the Blue Jackets are looking for. That said, there are few defensemen I would be less interesting in acquiring.

His underlying numbers paint an excellent play-driver, his puck moving and puck retrieving is already among the best in the NHL, but he’s got plenty of room to grow defensively. He isn’t really good there at all. In fact, if you consult the Entries Leading to Scoring Chances Allowed chart above, he’s one of the worst in the NHL.

So why would I want this player? A few reaoson, he’s 6’6” with fantastic skating, he’s already one of the best 5v5 producers among defensemen, he’s got immaculate PK results and his contract is already signed.

Power may not be the size monster that clears creases and bring physicality but in my opinion he’s being unfairly maligned for his defensive capabilities as a 22 year old. His puck moving is uncanny for a player his size. He may never be the net-front brute his 6’6” frame suggests but his skating, read of the game and reach suggest he could become an excellent neutral zone defender.

Outside of his defensive and transition capabilities, he’s an unusually flexible player comfortable on all areas of the ice. As much praise as I have for Denton Mateychuk for his ability to play in the corners, Power is very much the same. He often sets up in the same playmaking positions as Kent Johnson, his offensive potential is astronomical.

Buffalo has created a disaster with their team structure bumping three talented left handed defensemen against eachother without proper roster support. If the Blue Jackets can take advantage of that, and their ownerships rumored cheapness, and lock down a high-potential long-term contract, they should do what they can. If the cap projection rises as intended, and the Blue Jackets add his $8.35 million x 7 year deal, those dollars will be equivalent to Damon Severson’s recent deal in 2025-26.

Jackson LaCombe

High End Puck Mover, Potential Special Activator

Anaheim find themselves in a similar position to Buffalo. Stuffed with young defensemen, poorly coached and potentially spinning their tires. They’re amassing a wave of talent but they’ve just added Jacob Trouba and were rumored to have offered Zegras for K’Andre Miller. Adding more defense to a team that already has LaCombe, Mintyukov, Zellweger and Hellson while having Tristan Luneau in the AHL and Stian Solberg recently drafted.

If the team looks to carve out some space for their youth by moving other youth, perhaps the Blue Jackets can look to poach the defenseman who very much looks like The Next One from their defenseman factory.

He is two years older than Owen Power, and hasn’t signed a contract quite yet, but he’s displayed some stunning puck moving and activating and is an absolutely demonic presence in the neutral zonew as well. He might just be the best add the Blue Jackets can make.

Kaiden Guhle

Neutral Zone Killer, Shutdown Defenseman Potential, Activator

Kaiden Guhle’s long-term deal might be looking like a steal in short order. He looked like the next wave of neutral zone stoppers in the wave of Gavrikov or Toews. He’s fierce, combative and physical and loves to get up ice.

He’s not available without a tremendous offer but he’s one to watch.

Colton Parayko

Colton Parayko is a behemoth right handed defenseman who played for Canada at the Four Nations. He’s 31 years old, has dubious performance, and is on a $6.5 million contract for 5 years after this one with a full No Trade Clause. It goes until he’s old and would prepresent a tremendous risk.

So why add him here? He’s big, combative and honestly good at retreiving pucks. If the Blue Jackets want an upgrade on Colton Parayko, perhaps betting on his improvement would make sense.

Mostly, I think he’s bait. He has a big shot, sure, but I think big point shooting is mostly a waste of offense and the Blue Jackets are better for moving away from it. Still, if the Blue Jackets have to spend some cap he is technically an option. Perhaps he ages well and retools his skillset in the presence of Zach Werenski.

Deadline Options

Most of the options above represent the best players the Blue Jackets should be interested in acquiring but many won’t be available until this upcoming offseason if not later. I believe Blue Jackets have plenty of roster renovation to do, Evason’s deployment of the bottom pair notwithstanding, and this offseason is a great time to do it.

That said, there are a couple of options the Blue Jackets should consider acquiring this season. Erik Gudbranson and Dante Fabbro are currently injured, return dates not exactly clear, but the foremost targets are perhaps acquisitions that empower Waddell to move Provorov, or perhaps in response to it.

The Blue Jackets have extended Jake Christiansen, added Jordan Harris and Daemon Hunt in recent trades and started bleeding in Denton Mateychuk on the penalty kill. The ground work for a Provorov departure was laid but it’s possible market forces or the teams excellent results up to this point mean a minor change of plans.

These next defensemen represent possible options to mitigate the risk of his departue and fill his status as a top penalty killer.

Connor Murphy

Neutral Zone Killer, Crease Clearer, Shutdown Defenseman

Connor Murphy, native of Dublin, Ohio, has been on many Blue Jackets’ fans wishlists for quite some time. He’s a big, physical right handed defenseman on an expiring contract at a palatable dollar amount.

It’s difficult to say that Chicago plans to move him, they very much want to start ascended out of the basement, but losing him for nothing might also be untenable.

His performance this season merits consideration. He’s got good penalty killing metrics, solid neutral zone defending and good work in-zone. He’s more chance focused that shot focused, which suggests he won’t waste offensive zone possession but otherwise doesn’t have too much to offer. He’s good enough at retrieving the puck which makes him a potentially great partner for Denton Mateychuk in the short term.

The question, as it always is, is a matter of cost. Does Murphy move the puck well enough to truly combine well with Mateychuk and offer an improvement over Erik Gudbranson? Does Chicago get a better offer from a contender making a last-ditch all-in push?

Rasmus Ristolainen???

Shutdown Defenseman

Rasmus Ristolainen has gone from league-wide laughing stock to serviceable defenseman under John Tortorella. His underlying metrics grade him out as a decent shot suppressor and like Connor Murphy he’s more danger oriented that volume.

That said, he doesn’t grade out as a great neutral zone defender and whatever assets used to acquire him might not be worth just holding Ivan Provorov.

Colin Miller

Quiet Shutdown Defenseman

Colin Miller has been moving through teams at a rapid pace as of late. That, on its own, is some type of red flag. In Winnipeg, though he has good numbers, he’s played on the third pair behind some more suspect defensemen. If the Jets look to improve their defense corps at the deadline, he would be a great low-cost right handed defenseman to poach. Neal Pionk expires this offseason and Miller is still signed next season at $1.5 million but that could offer more bodies as the Blue Jackets look to overhaul the roster in the offseason.

Perhaps there’s even some sort of Provorov exchange that could net him as the insurance coming back. Winnipeg has their first, no second, and all of their picks next year. Perhaps Elias Salomonsson or a forward prospect are also of interest to the Blue Jackets.

Derek Forbort

Crease Clearer, Stay At Home Defenseman, Penalty Killer

Derek Forbort represents something of a complete role specialist. Though his defensive metrics are stellar, he gives pretty much everything back offensively. He is great at preventing shots from in close, great at penalty killing and, in limited sample, an effective neutral zone killer.

The Vancouver Canucks have added some LD with picks already and Forbort represents what I imagine the Blue Jackets hoped they were getting in Jack Johnson. If Ivan Provorov is moved, he could join the team on the third pair and maybe stop some penalty kill bleeding should Mateychuk struggle.

Otherwise, this is the exact kind of defenseman the Blue Jackets should avoid and already have in Erik Gudbranson.

Carson Soucy

Risky Pick, Neutral Zone Killer, Shutdown Defenseman

Carson Soucy, also a Vancouver Canuck, is having a miserable season. For years prior, including last year, he looked the part of an aggressive neutral zone defender who fits a lot of the Nikita Zadorov archetype. Whatever happened, he hasn’t had success and that even includes the penalty kill.

Perhaps Vancouver looks to shed some cap, Soucy is signed for 2 years at $3.25 million, and the Blue Jackets feel like they can take the risk that he turns into a respectable and aggressive 4-5 defenseman. It would be a tremendous risk but if Vancouver compensates appropriately, it could be a savvy bet in such an uncertain season.

Having some spent cap for next year could allow the Blue Jackets to make some more interesting moves without worrying about extortion for not meeting the cap floor.

Egor Zamula

Neutral Zone Killer, Stay At Home Defenseman

Egor Zamula looks like a potentially fantastic role player to target for the deadline. His work in the defensive zone looks great and he’s otherwise uninvolved in the offensive zone. He doesn’t penalty kill much for John Tortorella so he’s not the safest bet as a potential replacement either.

Connor Clifton

Neutral Zone Killer, Penalty Killer

Connor Clifton is a low-minute and not particularly good right handed defenseman. He’s diminuitive but feisty and often crosses the borderline. Still, he’s eager to move up ice and make plays. If the Blue Jackets want a budget or potential cap-dump add that brings some neutral zone killing intensity, he’s certainly an option.

The main reason to add him, aside from his right handedness, is his up-to-this point excellent penalty killing. Perhaps that has something to do with Owen Power but the results have been great up to this point.

Mattias Samuelsson

Neutral Zone Killer, Contract Risk

Mattias Samuelsson was one of the early examples of a neutral zone play killer being paired with an excellent puck mover. His work with Dahlin mirrored much of Mikey Anderson’s with Drew Doughty. Since he signed his long-term contract, he’s signed for $4.285 million for 5 more years, he hasn’t performed all that well.

He still supresses some shots and plays the neutral zone aggressively but looks far from the guaranteeed defensive defenseman that a GM could hang their hat on. It is Buffalo, after all, and he is still only 24 years old. Perhaps his age means there’s plenty of room to make a good bet. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was an easy way for Buffalo to move out some salary without being embarrassed by another top prospect suceeding away from the team.

Breakout Picks

Jordan Spence

Puck Mover, Good Defender, Activator

Jordan Spence has long been a favorite defender of mine primarily because of his stellar analytics and AllThreeZones stats. Some of his overperformance there comes from being put in a good spot low in the Kings’ lineup and in a good puck moving position as the last-back in the Kings’ 1-3-1.

This season, the Kings have brought a new style and Spence’s underlying numbers have exploded. He’s a good neutral zone defender who knows how to use his undersized body to play bigger than his size. He can jump into the play and is an excellent playmaker. His penalty killing results are also stellar.

The catch, though, is that he’s still under contract. He looks, to me, like he would be an upgrade on a player like Dante Fabbro, if only a younger one, but there’s something to be said about his relative unprovenness and small stature. I would be happy for the Blue Jackets to take this risk, especially if they decide to move on from Damon Severson, but it’s hard top envision a lineup featuring both Mateychuk and Spence.

Maybe Dean Evason, who spent plenty of years with Jared Spurgeon, doesn’t mind working them both into his lineup.

The other catch is that Jordan Spence is at a low cap-hit and has another year signed. The only reason to believe LA is moving on from him is that they don’t necessarily have a strong place for him on the roster. Drew Doughty has returned, Gavrikov might need to be paid, and Brandt Clarke is a recent high pick who looks like he has more offensive potential. So Jordan Spence, who still hasn’t ever taken particularly difficult matchups, might be surplus to requirements.

If the Blue Jackets have the appetite to make multiple moves on D this offseason, I’d take a long look at Jordan Spence.

Cam York

All-Around Play-Driver

Cam York is perhaps having an under the radar defensive year, at least according to the RAPM algorithm. He’s a touch undersized and isn’t a particularly dominant puck-mover or retriever but does have excellent neutral zone defending data.

In his games against the Blue Jackets, I liked a lot of what I saw. That said, I’m not sure I can cleanly attribute his performance to his actions relative to those of his partner, Travis Sanheim.

He’s a little more volume focused than danger, though the Flyers are big point shooters in general. Perhaps under a different structure, Cam York is ready to breakout and develop into a more shutdown leaning style. With more puck moving work, does he look better or worse? That’s the critical question for someone hoping to mine some gold.

Braden Schneider

Neutral Zone Killer, Activator

Braden Schneider, as a 23yo right handed defenseman, should certainly be on the Blue Jackets’ radar. Rumor is that Chris Drury as absolutely refusing to move him in any packages and in previous seasons there was good reason for that.

Then, he often looked like the next shutdown style defenseman with penalty of neutral zone playkilling chops featuring sometime on a line with K’Andre Miller in the playoffs. This season, even after Jacob Trouba was traded, Schneider didn’t find more responsibilities and the NYR have traded for and signed William Borgen.

I can’t say his data paints a good picture this season but he’s still young and has plenty of time to grow into a role. If the Blue Jackets fill out the top of their roster, perhaps he can be bled into Evason’s sytem well. His penalty killing data is still stellar.

Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh

Two right-handed complementary defensemen are included here because of their relative volatility. Both looks like they could get the job done but betting on these players is more difficult than the rest because of their deployment situations.

Both do not play against top competition. Perbix’s analytics are better (outside of RAPM), his neutral zone defending looks better but he plays with worse teammates (Often Emil Martinsen-Lilleberg) and against worse competition.

Darren Raddysh’s most common partner is Victor Hedman. Perhaps he suffers under the occasional load, though they still aren’t matchup minutes, but a coach’s trust means something.

Both could be savvy bets for a team seeking a breakout or overperformance pick.

Draft Prospects

The final option for finding matchup defensemen is drafting them. The Blue Jackets seem to believe they have found a right handed one in Charlie Elick but it will be quite some time before his skillset comes to fruition. Perhaps Tanner Henricks or Luke Ashton develop into something as well. Luca Marrelli is having a breakout season though he’s much more a puck-mover.

There are some prospects worth targetting outside of the NHL, namely Beau Akey (Edmonton), Stian Solberg (Anaheim) and Sean Behrens (Colorado), but those players won’t help the Blue Jackets solve their short-term problems and certainly won’t help them add cap in an intelligent way. Carolina has some stellar prospects in Vladimir Nikishin and Scott Morrow, but I highly doubt they’re availabe.

This upcoming draft, weak though it looks to be, does have some very interesting defenseman who may be available with the Blue Jackets’ picks in the first round. It’s too early to offer too much information but keep an eye on Jackson Smith. He’s not my current pick for the Blue Jackest’ first rounder, that would be Carter Bear, and he might not even be available but he would be an exciting addition.

Otherwise, Radim Mrtka, Blake Fiddler and Logan Hensler all look like varying degrees of potential top four defensemen with size. Kashawn Aitcheson looks like a complete menace, in nearly every sense of the word, who could certainly become a confrontational shutdown defenseman if everything goes right and Cameron Reid could be a Mateychuk-like if he continues on his trajectory.

Wrap Up

Ultimately, the desire for a neutral zone stopper is an entirely subjective one. Watching recent high-end performances from players like Gustav Forsling and Jaccob Slavin has been intoxicating and it’s hard to fight the desire to add something like that directly to the team.

As we’ve seen, they aren’t necessarily a readily available commodity. For that reason, perhaps the approach of Florida and Vegas are instructive: balanced top fours with bona fide elite defensemen but without specifically diagrammed matchup pairings. Forsling and Niko Mikkola (one of the most fun players to watch as a 6’6” behemoth who is one of the most aggressive activators and frequently leads rushes) are both certainly neutral zone stoppers. Vegas had Pietrangelo and Theodore on separate pairs and complementary and defensively capable partners.

Why should the Blue Jackets not, then, also target a puck mover? Perhaps Owen Power or Noah Dobson (though it really seems like Florida has more confrontational veterans that would tip the scales for the young team and old GM) should take precedence and Mateychuk can be given time to grow into a more prominent role. Perhaps he’s even destined for an all-around skillset on a matchup pair that can take the Blue Jackets to even further heights. He’s comfortable playing on the right side after all.

All-in-all, I can’t help but be intrigued by Mattias Samuelsson. His profile is interesting and he certainly stands out as a player with plenty of room for positive regression. He’s only 24, though he felt much older to me, and he could certainly thrive with the appropriate partner.

It’s easy to see the bigger moves being too difficult to come by, NHL GMs are often very conservative, and for that reason I wouldn’t be surprised to see Provorov remaining after the trade deadline. The signs leading up to this point, mostly the acquisition of Jordan Harris and Daemon Hunt, suggest Waddell was indeed planning for his departure. He now seems swayed by the rooms’ performance this season so it’s possible that those additions remain nothing more than insurance. If he does stay, Waddell shouldn’t be afraid to let him walk for nothing. It won’t make his job easy leading up to the draft but perhaps that’s the line to tread.

If Provorov is traded for futures, and a first round pick is the rumored asking price, it would be much better if it could be pushed to 2026. Personally, I wouldn’t mind restocking some second round picks or getting one of the closer to ready prospects (I’m really enticed by Beau Akey’s potential and that could be a good piece to target should Edmonton, who doesn’t have a 2025 first, have no desire to meet the first round price). Given the recent injuries to Shea Theodore, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Lauzon, perhaps the D market will surge post-Four Nations and Waddell will pounce.