Great stuff, as always! Two names that I often hear mentioned that I've got two ask about: would Brandon Carlo and Rasmus Andersson constitute less-than-ideal targets, in your opinion?
Stylistically, Andersson grades out as a pure puck mover which wasn't what I was interested in. I think I'm probably also a little biased after the dirty hit on Laine too. His numbers, at least from what I can see on hockeyviz, look quite bad this season though he is getting pretty tough matchups with "poor" partners depending on your feelings on Kevin Bahl. Looks like his numbers have declined steadily with Calgary. I personally wouldn't do it but it's not like there's not an angle for him to look better if you think he's put in a better situation on CBJ.
Carlo feels like the appropriate archetypal, pretty good nz defending and a willing retriever, fit but it looks like his numbers have fallen off hard in recent years. Maybe he's mirroring the defensive decline of Boston as a whole? A3Z looks better in 24-25 than 23-24. His contract makes it worth a stab but Waddell would have to contend with Fabbro, Gudbranson, Severson already on the roster so it's a whole mess.
Good stuff. I think whatever move they make, they are going to have to make some decisions regarding their other defenseman. For my money, Gudbranson does not serve a whole lot of purpose beyond the human element. He had a good season last year, but I suspect that had more to do with the Vegas-style defensive system than anything else. If I recall correctly, he looked a bit lost in Evason's system in the first few games.
I've heard Andersson described as a two-way defenseman when people discuss the Blue Jackets trading for him. I guess I was surprised to see players like Dobson, Chychrun and (indirectly) Durzi getting mentions but not Andersson.
What's your take on the fresh Seth Jones rumblings? I saw him listed as a standout in terms of getting a penalty killer, but it seems much economically effective to get a depth guy like Derek Forbort if that's what they are after.
Mentioned some thoughts on Seth Jones recently as you've seen. Still not sure the money makes sense for the Blue Jackets, just seems like Chicago would have to take a massive L with retention. I would personally prefer him to Provorov in actual on-ice impacts but he's older and the contract just can't be ignored. Wildcard for me there is just Severson. His numbers have always looked stellar, coaches have always moved him down to the third pair and he's getting too old to believe that he'll make the necessary changes. His insistence on trying to make a hard play even as the situation changes in front of him is difficult. If there's an angle, Seth Jones could be a backup target this summer after the Blackhawks pay his signing bonus. The only angle I can see for an acquisition this TDL is his advocates within the locker room. CBJ have a fantastic vibe inside and too much wheeling and dealing could disrupt the "magic" (though I think they should consider this found money and not be insecure about making the team better).
I share your opinion on Gudbranson. I don't think he's good at all. If last year was a good year for him and he had a 41 GF% on-ice share at 5v5 (37% the year before), what are we doing here? I always try to take the perspective of a coach and see what they might be seeing. There's some evidence, as there was with Kuraly-Robinson under Larsen, that the coach is asking them to play bad, essentially. Gudbranson shoots way too much but might be trying to simply earn a faceoff and give the ice to a better teammate. That's the most generous I can be about his performance for the Blue Jackets. I would say that there's an angle for him to play with Mateychuk in that he might just stay uninvolved and let the kid cook but 1. I don't trust him to not put point shots on net and 2. Mateychuk seems to be getting a lot of trust from Evason already.
Andersson is interesting, I think partially I don't include him because it seems to me that Calgary is going to hold. He plays the tough minutes in Calgary, though Weegar gets the acclaim for stomping easier minutes, but his effectiveness has hinged on Kevin Bahl. When he was out injured, Andersson's numbers really really tanked.
Dobson, Chychrun and Durzi do share similarities in that I don't think I would really categorize them as two way despite some of the evidence. Dobson is young and has a history of high performance but I wonder if his defense is mostly a result of playing with the Islanders. Still, you might want to be on a young player first. The idea of Chychrun works for the Blue Jackets, right? Shoots well, scores goals, creates neutral zone turnovers and has the body type that hits really hard. Not great at actually defending. Durzi is very weird and interesting, I think he'd have some interesting interactions with Werenski given his passing but I think you're right. Some of the purpose in including them was also to present that the idea of a two-way defenseman might not necessarily be available and so the Blue Jackets might have to come up with a different idea. All four of these defensemen feel a lot, sometimes in different ways, like Severson to me.
I think the angle is for the Blue Jackets to move torwards the Vegas/Florida style roster construction. Werenski and a complement (could be Fabbro could be Severson with growth). A good balanced second pair (Mateychuk being ready for that soon) and maybe a shutdown-lite third pair like Vegas had with Hague-Whitecloud.
Yeah, Jones is an interesting case. It doesn't seem entirely unlikely that he ends up in Columbus. I personally hope that he doesn't and don't actually think he will, since I expect Chicago will want to retain up to $2.5M or thereabouts to get a greater return. Columbus' strength as a buyer would be their cap space enabling them to take on his whole contract.
The Severson situation sure is a bit of a head scratcher. If they do trade Provorov at the TDL, maybe Severson will have to step up to the second pair with Mateychuk. Or perhaps Gudbranson is back by then.
It sure sounds like the underlying numbers paint Andersson as fool's gold then. Let's hope Gavrikov is feeling nostalgic then.
Just one more name which came up during the season: Simon Nemec. I know that he has absolutely dreadful underlying numbers, but does he have an interesting profile in terms of becoming a defensive defenseman that Columbus could be looking for? Even if he does, maybe the Blue Jackets are a bit burned by the whole Jiricek situation.
re: Andersson, that's the trickiest part of the whole thing and something I perhaps should have acknowledged in the early goings, D are by far the most difficult to evaluate with the stats that we have publically available. AllThreeZones can be really good but doesn't hit the sample size you'd like to really make claims. D-men, in general, are much more wildly affected by systems than their forward counterparts.
Which brings me to the next guy: Simon Nemec. A great player and one that, like Power or Dobson or others, should be considered despite not fitting the "idea" of what the Blue Jackets need. To your question, no he doesn't fit the defensive defenseman profile and he probably doesn't project to be that kind either. He's more of a Werenski type where his skill is in how good he is at moving up-ice. He's a wizard of rush routes and activating routes in the offensive zone, he's very smart. He was pretty good in NJ last year and did retrieve the puck well but didn't stop much rush offense. He's been terrible in NJ this year and that might have a lot to do with Keefe who likes to keep his defensemen home.
Sounds like he's not a good target but smart players who can move well and pass and anticipate the game are still excellent partners for very good defensemen. Nemec was good on retrievals and good at getting to the middle in the offensive zone and prefers passing to shooting. Theoretically, he's better in time than Fabbro is and could look something like that except he's got more runway to develop nz defending and even better offensive potential. Hronek didn't look like a particularly good defender either and he's now one of the best elite D partners.
I would also look at Seamus Casey. Small, lots of the same things applicable as before, but I really like the way Michigan teaches their D to defend. For a smaller kid, he's got the stickwork and habits that can help him mitigate the size issue. Likely not a current target given the strengths/weakness of current CBJ D but another factor in watching how NJ works their D corps in the playoffs and the choices they make this upcoming offseason.
Damn, dude. So much work, so much data, in every post. Love the effort! I hope DW makes a significant move at the trade deadline on defense and/or offense should the opportunity present itself.
Great stuff, as always! Two names that I often hear mentioned that I've got two ask about: would Brandon Carlo and Rasmus Andersson constitute less-than-ideal targets, in your opinion?
Stylistically, Andersson grades out as a pure puck mover which wasn't what I was interested in. I think I'm probably also a little biased after the dirty hit on Laine too. His numbers, at least from what I can see on hockeyviz, look quite bad this season though he is getting pretty tough matchups with "poor" partners depending on your feelings on Kevin Bahl. Looks like his numbers have declined steadily with Calgary. I personally wouldn't do it but it's not like there's not an angle for him to look better if you think he's put in a better situation on CBJ.
Carlo feels like the appropriate archetypal, pretty good nz defending and a willing retriever, fit but it looks like his numbers have fallen off hard in recent years. Maybe he's mirroring the defensive decline of Boston as a whole? A3Z looks better in 24-25 than 23-24. His contract makes it worth a stab but Waddell would have to contend with Fabbro, Gudbranson, Severson already on the roster so it's a whole mess.
Good stuff. I think whatever move they make, they are going to have to make some decisions regarding their other defenseman. For my money, Gudbranson does not serve a whole lot of purpose beyond the human element. He had a good season last year, but I suspect that had more to do with the Vegas-style defensive system than anything else. If I recall correctly, he looked a bit lost in Evason's system in the first few games.
I've heard Andersson described as a two-way defenseman when people discuss the Blue Jackets trading for him. I guess I was surprised to see players like Dobson, Chychrun and (indirectly) Durzi getting mentions but not Andersson.
What's your take on the fresh Seth Jones rumblings? I saw him listed as a standout in terms of getting a penalty killer, but it seems much economically effective to get a depth guy like Derek Forbort if that's what they are after.
Mentioned some thoughts on Seth Jones recently as you've seen. Still not sure the money makes sense for the Blue Jackets, just seems like Chicago would have to take a massive L with retention. I would personally prefer him to Provorov in actual on-ice impacts but he's older and the contract just can't be ignored. Wildcard for me there is just Severson. His numbers have always looked stellar, coaches have always moved him down to the third pair and he's getting too old to believe that he'll make the necessary changes. His insistence on trying to make a hard play even as the situation changes in front of him is difficult. If there's an angle, Seth Jones could be a backup target this summer after the Blackhawks pay his signing bonus. The only angle I can see for an acquisition this TDL is his advocates within the locker room. CBJ have a fantastic vibe inside and too much wheeling and dealing could disrupt the "magic" (though I think they should consider this found money and not be insecure about making the team better).
I share your opinion on Gudbranson. I don't think he's good at all. If last year was a good year for him and he had a 41 GF% on-ice share at 5v5 (37% the year before), what are we doing here? I always try to take the perspective of a coach and see what they might be seeing. There's some evidence, as there was with Kuraly-Robinson under Larsen, that the coach is asking them to play bad, essentially. Gudbranson shoots way too much but might be trying to simply earn a faceoff and give the ice to a better teammate. That's the most generous I can be about his performance for the Blue Jackets. I would say that there's an angle for him to play with Mateychuk in that he might just stay uninvolved and let the kid cook but 1. I don't trust him to not put point shots on net and 2. Mateychuk seems to be getting a lot of trust from Evason already.
Andersson is interesting, I think partially I don't include him because it seems to me that Calgary is going to hold. He plays the tough minutes in Calgary, though Weegar gets the acclaim for stomping easier minutes, but his effectiveness has hinged on Kevin Bahl. When he was out injured, Andersson's numbers really really tanked.
Dobson, Chychrun and Durzi do share similarities in that I don't think I would really categorize them as two way despite some of the evidence. Dobson is young and has a history of high performance but I wonder if his defense is mostly a result of playing with the Islanders. Still, you might want to be on a young player first. The idea of Chychrun works for the Blue Jackets, right? Shoots well, scores goals, creates neutral zone turnovers and has the body type that hits really hard. Not great at actually defending. Durzi is very weird and interesting, I think he'd have some interesting interactions with Werenski given his passing but I think you're right. Some of the purpose in including them was also to present that the idea of a two-way defenseman might not necessarily be available and so the Blue Jackets might have to come up with a different idea. All four of these defensemen feel a lot, sometimes in different ways, like Severson to me.
I think the angle is for the Blue Jackets to move torwards the Vegas/Florida style roster construction. Werenski and a complement (could be Fabbro could be Severson with growth). A good balanced second pair (Mateychuk being ready for that soon) and maybe a shutdown-lite third pair like Vegas had with Hague-Whitecloud.
Yeah, Jones is an interesting case. It doesn't seem entirely unlikely that he ends up in Columbus. I personally hope that he doesn't and don't actually think he will, since I expect Chicago will want to retain up to $2.5M or thereabouts to get a greater return. Columbus' strength as a buyer would be their cap space enabling them to take on his whole contract.
The Severson situation sure is a bit of a head scratcher. If they do trade Provorov at the TDL, maybe Severson will have to step up to the second pair with Mateychuk. Or perhaps Gudbranson is back by then.
It sure sounds like the underlying numbers paint Andersson as fool's gold then. Let's hope Gavrikov is feeling nostalgic then.
Just one more name which came up during the season: Simon Nemec. I know that he has absolutely dreadful underlying numbers, but does he have an interesting profile in terms of becoming a defensive defenseman that Columbus could be looking for? Even if he does, maybe the Blue Jackets are a bit burned by the whole Jiricek situation.
re: Andersson, that's the trickiest part of the whole thing and something I perhaps should have acknowledged in the early goings, D are by far the most difficult to evaluate with the stats that we have publically available. AllThreeZones can be really good but doesn't hit the sample size you'd like to really make claims. D-men, in general, are much more wildly affected by systems than their forward counterparts.
Which brings me to the next guy: Simon Nemec. A great player and one that, like Power or Dobson or others, should be considered despite not fitting the "idea" of what the Blue Jackets need. To your question, no he doesn't fit the defensive defenseman profile and he probably doesn't project to be that kind either. He's more of a Werenski type where his skill is in how good he is at moving up-ice. He's a wizard of rush routes and activating routes in the offensive zone, he's very smart. He was pretty good in NJ last year and did retrieve the puck well but didn't stop much rush offense. He's been terrible in NJ this year and that might have a lot to do with Keefe who likes to keep his defensemen home.
Sounds like he's not a good target but smart players who can move well and pass and anticipate the game are still excellent partners for very good defensemen. Nemec was good on retrievals and good at getting to the middle in the offensive zone and prefers passing to shooting. Theoretically, he's better in time than Fabbro is and could look something like that except he's got more runway to develop nz defending and even better offensive potential. Hronek didn't look like a particularly good defender either and he's now one of the best elite D partners.
I would also look at Seamus Casey. Small, lots of the same things applicable as before, but I really like the way Michigan teaches their D to defend. For a smaller kid, he's got the stickwork and habits that can help him mitigate the size issue. Likely not a current target given the strengths/weakness of current CBJ D but another factor in watching how NJ works their D corps in the playoffs and the choices they make this upcoming offseason.
Damn, dude. So much work, so much data, in every post. Love the effort! I hope DW makes a significant move at the trade deadline on defense and/or offense should the opportunity present itself.
Thank you! CBJ are in a mess right now being ahead of schedule, cap increasing and a good number of bodies on the roster.
I could have just taken some stabs in the dark but without all of this data and process they would have been little more than guesses.
I too am antsy for some big moves!