Armchair GM: Looking at Waddell's Trade History to Craft 2025 Comparable Deals

Primer

This is now the sixth piece of the summer Armchair GM series designed to prime us for the upcoming offseason of roster reconstruction.

Armchair GM: Comparing CBJ to Cup Winners

Armchair GM: Projecting the Roster for Acquisition Role Fits

Armchair GM: Defense and Forward Market Analysis

Armchair GM: Priority Targets for Defense

Armchair GM: Priority Targets for Upgrades at Forward

For the most part, the goal has been to focus heavily on the factors at play this upcoming offseason and position the current Blue Jackets’ roster as it relates to a contention window.

This one is going to be a bit different. It’s part history and part pure speculation. Just because Don Waddell has done deals a certain way on a certain team on the past doesn’t mean they apply to how he’ll do it with this team in this summer. That said, his deal frameworks do show some trends and offer useful jumping off points for interesting thought experiments. Let’s dive in.

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Waddell Carolina Trade/Deal Timeline

2018 Offseason

• Noah Hanifin + Elias Lindholm for Dougie Hamilton, Adam Fox Rights, Michael Ferland

• Jeff Skinner for 2nd + 3rd

18-19 Season

• Victor Rask for Nino Niederreiter

2019 Offseason

• Adam Fox Rights for 2nd + 3rd

• Acquired Patrick Marleau + 1st for Cap

• Gustav Forsling + Anton Forsberg for Calvin de Haan

• Erik Haula for Nic Roy + 5th

• Justin Faulk for Joel Edmundson

19-20 TDL

• Brady Skjei for 1st at Deadline (Traded from NYR Year 2 of $5.25m x 6)

• Sami Vatanen Rental for Prospects + 4th (only played in Playoffs)

• Vincent Trocheck Rental for Haula, Wallmark, Luostarinen, Priskie

2020 Offseason

• Edmundson for Scraps

• Fleury for Hakanpaa

• Bean for 2nd

2021 Offseason

• Ethan Bear for Warren Foegele

• Kotkaniemi Offersheet and Extension: $6.1m x 1 year ($4.82m x 8 years)

• Freddie Andersen Signing $4.5m x 2 years

2022 Offseason

• DeAngelo out

• Burns for Lorentz, Pick

• Pacioretty for Future Considerations

22-23 TDL

• Gostisbehere for 3rd

2023 Offseason

• Trade Down 3rd for 3rd and 4th

• Orlov 2 x $7.75m AAV

23-24 TDL

• Guentzel Rental for Bunting + Prospect Volume + 2nd (conditional first)

• Kuznetsov for 3rd

Big Deals and Tendencies

The biggest deal in Waddell’s Hurricanes tenure was the first one and it’s one that has significant implications for a Blue Jackets roster. Waddell was already familiar with Carolina and pounced on a deal immediately but he wanted to spend last season familiarizing himself with the Blue Jackets. Perhaps now is his time to strike.

Otherwise, I think it’s notable how Waddell approached deadline deals. First, when dealing for big players he often attached conditions on the high picks but mostly spent a volume of prospects over large single assets as we can see with both his Trocheck and Guentzel deals. This might have implications for current sub-prime prospects in the Blue Jackets org (think LDBB, Pinelli, Malatesta, Pyyhtia, Svozil, Ceulemans, perhaps even Brindley).

Otherwise, Waddell loves spending 3rd round picks on rentals. The other biggest deal, including a 1st round pick, was for Brady Skjei who still had plenty of term on his contract. Waddell didn’t find any such deal at last deadline but it might be something to keep an eye on.

The time to weaponize cap has expired, and Waddell whiffed on any such deals at last deadline, but he was at the very least eager in Carolina. Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty were both acquired for free because of their high cap hits. Patrick Marleau was acquired for a 1st that paid off huge for Carolina (the Seth Jarvis pick).

Exploiting the Blue Jackets’ current cap advantage might be difficult and will likely look different than simply offering relief. Still, getting veteran players that aggressive teams want to move away from for cheaper, relatively, might be Waddell’s best bet. Otherwise, it will probably look like astute bets on long term cap risks.

The other notable deals involve creative use of cap space and contract structure. Namely, Dmitry Orlov and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Orlov was signed as a UFA at age 31 for 2 years at $7.75m AAV. That was an above market deal for the duration. He was projected, via EvolvingHockey, to get a 5 years x $6.3m AAV deal but a two year deal would have been projected at a value of $5.35m AAV. Whether or not he had other offers remains to be seen but for whatever reason he chose Carolina at a high dollar value on the short term. We’ll see how his next contract shakes out to ascertain whether that was a good decision on his part or not.

What I think is important to mention, with respect to CBJ’s current situation, is that Orlov’s AAV did not appear to have an outsize impact on Jaccob Slavin’s contract extension which came at a value under Orlov’s AAV (6.395m). Slavin’s salary does oscillate between $8m and $6m for the first three years but you’d I’d imagine you’d expect something much higher since Slavin is a much better player. Perhaps there is some Tulsky negotiating interaction at play.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi was an incredibly creative acquisiton on behalf of the Hurricanes. He was given an offersheet for 1 year and $6.1m AAV after his ELC, signed it, and joined the Hurricanes when Montreal didn’t want to match. He then signed an 8 year x $4.82m extension after the trade deadline (when he was made eligible to sign). According to Steve Werier, an AGM of the Florida Panthers, this 8 year extension would have been “negotiated” prior to the signing of the offersheet. A creative way to exploit the offersheet values and get a player locked in on a long term deal.

I can’t say both of these techniques will be used, especially considering the nature of the upcoming offseason, but they are at least examples of Waddell’s exposure to creative thinking (though I would say most people attribute this creativity to Eric Tulsky).

2025 Versions of Waddell Deals

Lindholm/Hanifin for Hamilton Blockbuster Analogue

Given the Blue Jackets’ desire to improve their defense and the potential availability of some high quality defensemen, this seems like the most appropriate place to start. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the Blue Jackets have a good analogue under the hood.

This deal contained Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, both recent but critically not Waddell picks, who were underperforming their draft position. Hanifin was picked at 4, Lindholm at 5 each having completed their third year in the NHL. Dougie Hamilton was a star right handed defenseman (under contract at $5.75 million for 3 years) who was on the block because he liked museums and Calgary didn’t like his room/culture fit.

In combining the cards, I have used the 3-year data so we can ascertain how the players were performing in the longer term. It looks like Calgary traded some certainty and star power for some longer runway. The gaps in age are 3 or 4 years between the like players and Carolina got Fox rights which, had he played in Carolina, would have made the trade a steal but instead were converted to a 2nd and 3rd round pick.

Carolina got clearly the best player in the deal but Lindholm and Hanifin were solid players for Calgary during their careers. Hanifin is now flourishing on Vegas, Hamilton is aging on New Jersey, Lindholm struggled post-Gaudreau and struggled in Vancouver but was okay in Boston. Ferland played one season in Carolina before leaving in UFA.

So, the critical components are obviously Lindholm and Hanifin but also Dougie Hamilton. It’s not easy to find vibes fits between any of these players but there are some close enough analogues.

For Hamilton, I would classify Owen Power and Noah Dobson as the nearest fits. Both are players who are at times despised by their fanbases, who have found themselves in some rumors. Dobson is an RFA but it appeared former GM Lou Lamoriello wasn’t all too keen on ponying up for his high number extension. If we’re comparing like for like, Dobson is the more clear Hamilton analogue as a player albeit without a current value signed contract.

Power has been long the frustration of the Buffalo fanbase but how the front office feels about him isn’t clear. He is overpaid given his mixed contributions and salary has been a critical issue for Buffalo in the past.

The Blue Jackets Lindholm and Hanifin analogues are more tricky. Theoretically, that sounds like Cole Sillinger and Denton Mateychuk though I’ll use hindsight and say boy would it be more interesting if David Jiricek could have been included here instead of a bag of picks.

The problem with the comparison is that: 1. Mateychuk only has one season, though it was good, and 2. Sillinger has absoutely horrific analytics. Through the past few seasons he’s a bottom 1 percentile player in the NHL. Perhaps you’d think that’s a result of his “sophomore slump,” which was dreadful, but last season however was actually better analytically in 2023-24 ranking in the 9th percentile vs the 2nd this past season.

I think there’s room for some poor WOWY interactions in the data, maybe overrating Kent Johnson a bit and punishing Cole Sillinger in that place (any skill alongside ZAR and Olivier had a tendency to struggle as well), but there’s also a whole lot of struggle in his game and for the Blue Jackets when he’s on the ice.

Where the Blue Jackets could make up that value is, perhaps, in the addition of their first round picks or subtraction of a similar Ferland/Fox rights component. Buffalo can’t tear down this team and sell for futures so the Blue Jackets might need to offer up a veteran to fill the value gap. There’s some tension there as the Blue Jackets also have improvement designs. Owen Power is the same age as Sillinger but selling the runway of Mateychuk could certainly be a valid approach.

I honestly can’t really pitch a strong trade for these defensemen as I don’t know how they’re ultimately going to be valued by their GMs or what they would think of Sillinger who I imagine rates more highly among scouts than analysts. If the deal is somehow Sillinger + Jiricek return, I’d easily leap at the chance. If Mateychuk is included, it’s a harder sell.

If the value gap can be mitigated by a CBJ RH D/D Prospect going the other way, or if I’d be in for it there as well. Severson has an NTC, Gudbranson might be valued for toughness by Buffalo but surely not that much. Would they value Elick or Marrelli? How much are the first round picks in this draft even worth?

Would Mikhael Sergachev be a better comparable for Owen Power? No space to be a #1, some warts here or there, but ultimately a very good young defenseman who might be a bit overpaid. I don’t know that CBJ have the JJ Moser and Conor Geekie to match what Utah paid the Lightning but Buffalo are coming from another direction entirely.

Dmitry Orlov Analogue

The funnest and most risk free analogue to search for is the Dmitry Orlov signing. It’s a genius way to allocate cap especially given the Blue Jackets short-term cap advantage.

Orlov was a UFA and he was offered high dollar short term to forgo seeking term.

At the time of singing, Orlov was a traded expiring UFA who was really more of a puck moving defenseman. He, along with Zach Werenski, was one of the featured “rovers” of Alison Lukan’s original works. He gets up ice and was a great skater/ice-coverer.

The most eligible UFA players for this exact deal remain Vladislav Gavrikov and once again Dmitry Orlov! Orlov is now two years older, perhaps less eager to sign a short term deal, Gavrikov, similarly, is also coming off of a two year deal and may desire term/stability over short term financial gains.

LA has, reportedly, offered a 7 year deal to Gavrikov so it would have to be an astronomical deal to get him to forego that sort of certainty. The Blue Jackets do have that kind of cap space but I’m unsure of ownership’s desire to overpay someone for acquisition purposes. We’ll look into that shortly.

The next most likely players would also look a lot like Waddell moves made to put complementary value on Werenski’s pair.

I personally don’t see either of these working but Ekblad would have an angle to take a short term deal a la Gavrikov to set himself up for a final deal. He doesn’t have the requisite skating but perhaps he has the complementary puck-moving to make it work.

Brent Burns graded out well through all of the market analysis but he’s getting up there in age. While he’s still very skilled, especially at making small space passes to help diffuse pressure, his ultimate impact is likely significantly degraded. That means it would be a short term deal but perhaps it would be one that would help the Blue Jackets push out some of their less-favorable right handed defensemen. The Blue Jackets need defense, and perhaps some combative and net-front presences, and Burns has been put in an offensive over defensive role alongside Jaccob Slavin (the same spot that Tony DeAngelo was often placed in).

Given how this offseason is going, it seems like the dollar amount to persuade a player to forego long term contracts would be difficult. If they are a younger player, and you can convince them that they want to see the other side of the cap-increase, it makes sense but older UFAs might want to cash in.

Gavrikov is certainly the best target here.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi Analogue

Don Waddell offered Kotkaniemi a one year contract for $6.1 million that meant a first round pick and third round pick would go to Montreal. They felt that they could replace Kotkaniemi’s value with those picks so they let him go.

Once stolen from Montreal, Waddell signed him to a long term deal after the trade deadline, the earliest available time to sign an extension after a 1 year deal, to an 8 year extension.

Kotkaniemi wasn’t really good then and hasn’t really been good through the duration of his contract.

Still, an over-loaded 1 year deal that decreases the long-term AAV of a resulting contract, which can be pre-negotiated, is a great way to weaponize CBJ’s current cap advantage.

While Kotkaniemi was an offer-sheet and the value was perhaps unique to this situation, there are scenarios where this doesn’t necessarily have to be the case which I think opens up the most interesting options for the Blue Jackets.

First, let’s look at RFAs who could be poached because of cap crunches. It’s important to consider that the picks exchanged would be 2026 NHL Draft picks and that the Blue Jackets do not have their own 2026 2nd round picks so certain compensation thresholds will not be possible unless the Blue Jackets get their 2nd round pick back from Montreal.

The compensation windows are more or less the same. Generally, you’d see offers at the upper end of the brackets to make them as financially uncomfortable as possible without giving up more assets.

There are, perhaps, a few players where the GMs might feel like they can get value elsewhere or aren’t willing to match better offers. That was the primary strategy from Doug Armstrong swindling the Edmonton Oilers with the Holloway and Broberg contracts but the increase in cap ceiling this year makes it more difficult to see any of this value working.

Coming to my mind there would be primarly Luke Evangelista. You’d have to be a huge fan to be willing to part with the likely first and third level compensation.

The other, and maybe most likely, is Marco Rossi. It seems that the Wild just don’t like the player. I assume he’s traded at the draft but, if not, a team can always force their hand. They should be careful to not accidentally hand the Wild an excellent contract but a $7m x 1 year deal seems like the Wild wouldn’t have an appetite for (rumored to have offered him a 5x5 which is a strange and insulting midrange) and you’d probably feel pretty good about giving up a 1st and 3rd for him.

Otherwise, the best options are K’Andre Miller and Will Cuylle. The New York Rangers have both to sign with approx. 8 million in cap space for next season because of extensions to Lafreniere, Shesterkin and Will Borgen. It’s rumored they will move on from Chris Kreider, which would buy them plenty of cap-space but otherwise they’ll be in a tough spot.

K’Andre Miller is 25 which makes him well positioned for a 1 year into 8 year contract and he fits from a good chunk of roles. His value of late has been suspect, but when he broke into the league he looked like a defenseman that checks every box for the player behind Werenski. He’s a great skater, he jumps up into the play aggressively and he’s got an excellent aggressive nz defensive stick.

Will Cuylle, on the other hand, also fits. He’s 23 and seems to be more endeared to the front office.

Evolving Hockey projects KAM to get a $5.92m x 4 years contract from the Rangers and for Will Cuylle to get a $3.195m x 3 year contract but projects a $7.48m x 7 year for KAM if signed with a different team and Cuylle a $3m x 3 year contract on a different team. All contracts over 5 years get their total value divived by five, so a 7 year deal would be proportionally more expensive.

If they can’t find deals at the draft or sign these players prior to the window they subject themselves to strategic offer sheeting. I assume they make moves prior to that pinch. (Which is why it appears NYR are putting out feelers for K’Andre Miller trade values).

K’Andre Miller, who I would list as the more priority target, could be the second offer sheet, assuming Will Cuylle is signed first at an amount that makes matching KAM impossible, but in order to do that the Blue Jackets would have to offer Will Cuylle the contract first and, since they don’t have a second round pick, offer him an amount that would risk NYR taking the 1st and 3rd.

It’s not likely to work but a more expensive contract to K’Andre Miller, one that NYR simply don’t want to match, is the most likely scenario. The problem, however, would be that the Blue Jackets have to keep that value at pretty much exactly $7 million, while also giving up the 2026 draft picks in what looks like a better draft, and it’s easy to see K’Andre Miller fetching something a bit better (he likely would not accept less than Damon Severson, currently on $6.25m x 6 years, though that depends on what negotiating framework his agent would be using).

In any case, I don’t foresee offer sheets working. The Blue Jackets, and Rangers I’m sure, would prefer to make a trade before or during the draft. There’s an angle for the Blue Jackets to give up #14, thereby allowing the Rangers to give their conditional traded pick to Pittsburgh (currently #12), so that they can keep their own 2026 draft pick instead of sliding it. Maybe they’d prefer CBJ’s 2026 1st round pick so they can keep theirs this year or even stack two in the next season.

NYR have 48 hours prior to the draft to decide whether or not they are keeping their pick, so there could be pre-draft action. I suppose that could go in any direction.

UFA High Dollar 1 Year

So, let’s say it doesn’t make sense to go that direction to poach an RFA. It might still make sense for the Blue Jackets to do something quite ridiculous with their cap space this year.

Currently, CBJ has $41 million in cap space. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume Provorov is not extended and Fabbro and Voronkov are at their EH Projections. This would give CBJ around $30 million in cap space, perhaps a little less if they go longer term or the cap inflates.

Let’s say then that the Blue Jackets go after Mitch Marner or Vladislav Gavrikov. Because Marner and Gavrikov were with different teams at the TDL, they are only eligible to sign 7 year contracts with CBJ (or any team other than Toronto or LAK respectively).

The NHL max dollar contract is $20 million. Let’s say the Blue Jackets offer one of those players a 1 year x $20 million deal, which we know they can do without much impingement.

Don Waddell can negotiate what is effectively an 8 year deal by offering them a 1 year max with the promise of a specific dollar 7 year deal to meet the total value over the life of the theoretical 8 year deal. They could even offer an 8 year deal after if they really want to suppress the AAV given that their ages at the expiration of an 8 year deal from this offseason would be 36 and 38 respectively. (in the 1 year max followed by 8 years it would be 37 and 39 and I have to believe few players believe they’ll be getting high dollars at those ages).

Mitch Marner is currently projected to get 8 years x $12.9 million (though we assume he’s going to break the market). The total value of this deal would be $103 million. If CBJ offers him a 1 year max deal at $20 million, that would mean they could offer him an $11.8 million x 7 year extension or a $10.4 million x 8 year extension (as soon as they are eligible after 2026 TDL) to meet the original dollar amount. Those numbers don’t feel huge, partially because Marner is already relatively close to the cap ceiling, but they would mitigate plenty of the risk of his eventual aging. If he ages well, the Blue Jackets could have a great value deal.

The same goes for Gavrikov. His Evolving Hockey projections are much lower, primarily because that’s how it goes for defensive defensemen, but I’ll go on the rumored $7+ million x 7 years deal. Let’s assume it’s $7.5 million for a total of $52.5 million.

If CBJ offer a 1 year x $20 million deal, still being below the salary cap, they could pre-negotiate a 7 year deal to be signed at the 2026 TDL that would have a $4.64 million AAV. (a 6 year follow-up extension would be $5.4m AAV, an 8 year deal would be worth 4.06m AAV)Does he age well? Maybe not. Will he age well enough to worry about a $4.64 million per year deal? Probably. That cap hit sounds like it would be easy to mitigate should he not age well given the likelihood that it’s a small fraction of the cap and likely the going rate for third pair defensemen.

This should also be preferable for Gavrikov primarily because it’s front-loaded to an illegal degree (check out the rules for front-loaded contracts) which is great from a real world money perspective. You’d rather have $20 million today than the promise of $20 million 7 years from now, primarily because you can invest it or whatever else.

This is ultimately a fantasy scenario. Selling $20 million in increased expenditure for a single player is likely much less palatable to an owner and more fun sitting at home in an armchair.

The same logic goes for really any of the contracts that Waddell might sign this summer. He could really pump up single-year Provorov and Fabbro contracts, even a Voronkov contract, or even some lower run UFAs with the promise of pre-negotiated exentions. It’s imperative he gets something out of this cap window but worst case it’s just a happy owner with a little more cash in his pocket (I’m sure making the playoffs and getting gate revenue would be more).

Burns and Pacioretty Acquisition

Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty acquisition angles may make some sense for the Blue Jackets this season. They were stars with high dollar contracts on teams that desperately preferred cap space so they could continue to make deals. Unfortunately, the cap-pinch market is dramatically undervalued this specific off-season.

Each player was perhaps a bit different in terms of their status and the team that was trading them, Burns was a good veteran on a very long deal leaving a rebuilding team and Pacioretty was traded coming off of an injury with one year remaining as a pure cap dump for Vegas.

On the surface, there aren’t really any analogues for these two specifically but there are two options that could still fill the spirit of the deals. The Blue Jackets aren’t contenders, so they have that working for them, but heading into the offseason they have great vibes, great young players and a ton of competitive potential.

The first, Tyler Seguin. A former superstar, injury troubles and a big contract ($9.85m x 2 years). Perfect for a Pacioretty like deal. He’s even right-handed and could bring some necessary playmaking. Personality, I can’t be sure. In all-likelihood though, Duchene is the better example of someone who could be expected to impact the lineup.

Seguin, you see, has a full NMC and seems pretty well in-grained in Dallas at this point. So why mention him? The Blue Jackets won’t be able to hit the cap ceiling this year and would be, perhaps, unwise to spend in a way that means they can do it next year. Fantilli will get a deal but Jenner and Gudbranson are also expiring.

I don’t think Seguin would be a roster trade, so perhaps this was a bit bait, but he might be the next best hope at the Marleau deal. If his injury troubles are fully caught up with him and he’s LTIRing, the Blue Jackets are well positioned to eat his contract for payment from Dallas. Even better from an owner perspective given his actual salary owed is less than his AAV.

The problem is that Dallas used up all their assets acquiring Mikko Rantanen. I have no idea what they’d have or be willing to pay to move on from an LTIR’ed Seguin. They may even prefer his contract to help them “spend over the cap”.

The other squeeze and it works deal would be Vladimir Tarasenko. He doesn’t have a huge cap-hit but Detroit will be eager to do a deal, I assume they want to have a big offseason, and he’s eager to prove he should get more than this third line role on Detroit.

He checks boxes and would be a good way for the team to place a bet on recovering some ability and weaponizing cap. He had some interesting, though I wouldn’t say outright good, AllThreeZones metrics. He graded out more as a playmaker than his hallmark goalscoring which could be all the evidence you need to suggest he wasn’t put in a position to succeed.

He wouldn’t get powerplay time on CBJ but his playmaking bent might make him a good JvR analogue. In fact, hard to imagine a bigger boost for the Russians in the room than bringing in a legendary countryman, especially one renowned for his gym-work.

I wouldn’t hate the deal if other things don’t go Waddell’s way and he can get him for free or even gain a small asset in the process.

Trocheck, Guentzel, Skjei Deadline Deals

There’s nothing much to see here that’s particularly relevant to immediate deals. Trocheck and Skjei were acquired at the deadline but were certainly not rentals. It’s possible that Waddell takes the same tack and looks to upgrade the roster this upcoming deadline for a player who is signed for years (with more information about the quality of their 2026 draft picks) but he didn’t find a way last season.

Where I think Trocheck and Guentzel are both relevant together are in their package-deal styles. Waddell offered a bundle of subprime prospects and picks together to get these deals done. Guentzel was attempted to be re-signed but they couldn’t get it done for whatever reason. In both cases, these weren’t overly large swings.

This, piece volume approach is perhaps aligned with a by-the-numbers drafting strategy. If, instead of roster fit or bottom six profile rarity, you give an opposite general manager a bundle of exciting scoring prospects to bet on (because you have found them in volume in the later rounds), you might be able to keep your higher value assets for moves that are more guaranteed to fit long term.

I mention this now because it might be relevant given that the Blue Jackets have a collection of such prospects in Gavin Brindley (as much as I hope he’s more than this), Luca Del Bel Belluz, Stanislav Svozil, Corson Ceulemans, Luca Pinelli, James Malatesta, Jordan Dumais and maybe even Luca Marrelli.

Perhaps some of those find roles for CBJ but perhaps Waddell can continue to combine them for similar deadline deals should some teams decide they are actually going to retool/rebuild at the 2026 deadline.

As much as I have talked about snagging an RFA, preserving the 2026 1st round pick should be a priority. The Blue Jackets are not yet a year-in-year out playoff team, though their young players could step forward and make 2025-26 the first in a long run, so there’s still too much risk involved.

Come the trade deadline, the Blue Jackets will have clarity on their competitive status and the draft class. Maybe around then, Waddell can find an under contract perfect role-fit or package a raft of prospects for a rental that they hope they can turn into more.