Ivan Provorov Scouting Report
Using a variety of public analytic models and hand-tracked data to paint a quick picture of CBJ's recent acquisition
The Player
It appears that the Columbus Blue Jackets have found their Gavrikov-replacement in the recently maligned Ivan Provorov.
Quick Hits from NaturalStatTrick
Ivan Provorov is a 26 year old 6’1” left-shot defenseman who put up 6 goals and 21 assists for 27 points while averaging 23 minutes across 82 games in 2022-23.
At 5-on-5, Provorov put up 5 goals and 12 assists while controlling 47% CF and 42.42 GF%.
Provorov has played 22 playoff games across his 7 NHL seasons.
Diving Deeper with HockeyViz
To say Ivan Provorov struggled in 2022-2023 would be putting it lightly. He was below-average offensively on a terrible Philadelphia Flyers team and even worse defensively. On the Penalty Kill is where Provorov did the most of his damage. The Flyers had an NHL average penalty-kill when Provorov was off the ice but his performance allowed 22% more xGA/60 than the average NHL unit.
Ivan Provorov’s most common linemates this past season were Anthony DeAngelo, Rasmus Ristolainen and Cam York. None of these defensemen have the reputation of being defensively stout (Ristolainen’s performance this year in Philadelphia was actually much better than team average defensively). This was Cam York’s first full NHL season and he acquitted himself reasonably well. This pair came closest to winning their minutes of any of the three pairs made with Provorov.
Provorov ate quite a lot of the available minutes but his role on the PP vanished at the end of the season.
As we can see, Provorov played with and against top competition. I think it’s fair to say that he played against harder players than we played with considering who we just observed were his most common linemates. This remains a point in Provorov’s favor, his deployment was certainly not easy and that’s something CBJ loved doing to Vladislav Gavrikov as well.
Team Adjusted Data with Evolving Hockey
When algorithmically stripped of his team and deployment context, Ivan Provorov still struggled. While he did suppress shots, which is surprising considering his HockeyViz heatmap, he did allow too much quality. These sorts of algorithms can struggle to fully capture how difficult it can be to perform in heavy minutes on bad teams, but this isn’t an inspiring chart.
Vladislav Gavrikov, from 2020-2023, still vastly outperformed Ivan Provorov who still looks poor despite his poor surroundings.
The Microstats with the All Three Zones Project
Ivan Provorov grades out as a pretty difficult player to carry the puck against but is still only about average in terms of generating denials at the blue-line. This style of entry defending comes from players being up-ice and being proactive in killing forechecks before they begin (a la Devon Toews). If asked, it’s possible that Provorov could leverage some of his skating and fit nicely into a CBJ system where defensemen are asked to activate and play up-ice.
Ivan Provorov’s skillset here shows him as a fantastic puck-mover. He doesn’t quite match the height that Zach Werenski showed in his limited sample-size (peep the top right corner) but he’s an eager retriever who distinguishes himself from the pack but isn’t transcendental in terms of getting the puck out with possession. While I think it’s important that CBJ get defenseman who can kill plays early, being a good puck mover could provide an anchor skill that a coach can build a pair around.
In examining the rest of Provorov’s skillset we can learn a few things. Seeing his retrieval off exit% in Z-Score (standard deviations above average) terms shows us that he is still tops of the league in this regard. By his pressures/60, in the forechecking group, we can see that he does play up-ice. Then, seeing that his passes from center lane/60 and shots off HD passes/60 we can infer that he attacks the middle with his legs. He isn’t a particularly proficient passer, finisher or generator of offense, but he stays in motion in a way that is generally productive.
The Contract via CapFriendly
The trade for Ivan Provorov included retention from the LA Kings. This brings his cap-hit down to $4.75 million AAV for the remaining 2 years. His expiration matches the potential timeline for Denton Mateychuk and Stanislav Svozil well. It further gives CBJ an already-retained potential-trade-piece for next years deadline if Mateychuk or Svozil show up early or there are any other developments.
The Fit
I spent quite a few words on detailing the style of play the Blue Jackets should target with their D-system going forward. In summation, they should look to pair aggressive-entry defenders with excellent puck retrievers.
Filling the Gavrikov-Sized Hole on CBJ's Roster
The Blueprint In my last newsletter, I took a look at the styles of play of some of the top defensive teams and compared them to the Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets, like top teams, like to activate their defenseman and have them share the duties of puck transport and offensive creation.
They have one of the best retrievers in the world in Zach Werenski, but almost no good entry-defenders. Vladislav Gavrikov, when moved to LA, became a perfectly aggressive and dynamic play-killer but didn’t look like one in the CBJ system.
Right now, Jiricek projects as a good retriever but is aggressive at the blue-line and could go either way with his development trajectory. If paired with Provorov, Jiricek could have time to figure out the type of game he wants to play.
The Checkboxes
Primary Considerations
Aggressive Blueline Protection
Plays Left Side
Better than Team Defense
Ivan Provorov certainly plays the left-side but isn’t particularly aggressive and didn’t outperform Philly in terms of on-ice goal prevention.
Secondary Considerations
Veteran Savvy (bonus to Playoff or Stanley Cup Experience)
Surviving Tough Minutes
Penalty Killing
Short Term Contract Flexibility
Ivan Provorov has been in the league for a few years and has a couple of good performances. He has a single long playoff run (16 games) in 2019-2020 but otherwise isn’t more experienced than the veterans on CBJ’s roster. He didn’t exactly survive tough minutes but he certainly played quite a lot of them. His penalty killing leaves something to be desired.
The cherry, for CBJ, has to be that he has 2 years left on his contract. This is a great timeline for CBJ but it did come at a steep cost.
The Person
Ivan Provorov chose to boycott the Philadelphia Flyer’s pregame skate because they supported LGBTQ+ initiatives. He cited his religion as defense for this behavior. He was the first domino in a series of unfortunate choices across the league. This type of behavior is unacceptable and is, at best, extremely ignorant and hateful. His defense of “I respect everyone. I respect everybody's choices”, further belies his ignorance on these issues. Hockey players have never been beacons of morality but the NHL can certainly do better, especially if they want to pretend that “Hockey is For Everyone”
TL;DR
Ivan Provorov is a controversial choice for the #22OA. His on-ice results on a bad Philly team do not leave any room for confidence. Some of the underlying hand-tracked data paints a style that could prove useful if given the appropriate support. At this time, CBJ do not appear to have that and haven’t played in a style that maximizes his skillset. Under presumed coach Mike Babcock, that could change.