Filling the Gavrikov-Sized Hole on CBJ's Roster
Using the LA Kings and Colorado Avalanche as blueprints to plot the future of the CBJ blueline
The Blueprint
In my last newsletter, I took a look at the styles of play of some of the top defensive teams and compared them to the Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets, like top teams, like to activate their defenseman and have them share the duties of puck transport and offensive creation.
What can the Blue Jackets learn from the best defences in the NHL?
Looking For Solutions and The (Injured) Elephant in the Room The Blue Jackets were completely decimated by injuries this year. They played 9 games this season where the team they were playing had more injuries at the time of competition. They lost the bedrock of their D corps in Zach Werenski a player who, in an extremely small sample size, was having a…
The biggest conclusion drawn from the data was that the Blue Jackets needed to be more aggressive in defending their blue line. This change, ultimately, is going to come down to the next coach reinforcing the importance of that skill in this type of system.
The next step is for the GM to build out pairs that work to complement this style. As we saw from LA and Colorado, D pairs are generally separated into a puck-mover (retrieve the puck along the back wall and move it up ice) and an entry-defender (force turnovers in the neutral zone or dump-ins to the waiting D partner).
CBJ already have Zach Werenski, one of the premiere puck-movers in the NHL. They also have a handful of prospects that project to be activation focused defensemen, so we can say with confidence that this will remain part of the playstyle going forward.
The Current Squad
First, we’ll take a look at the players currently on the Blue Jackets. We know Jarmo is trying to replace the hole that Vladislav Gavrikov left. We also know that the current slate of defensemen was playing a style that wasn’t conducive to winning.
Are Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean or Nick Blankenburg long term solutions for the Blue Jackets? Boqvist hasn’t been a strong retriever but was most often paired with a defenseman who took that burden. Peeke hasn’t defended the blue-line particularly well, and it’s worth finding out if he could when asked, but still remains the top option for in-zone defense. Bean has been too injured, though his underlying numbers offer the smallest glimpse of promise. In my opinion, we have this next season to find out for whoever remains after Jarmo’s busy offseason.
The Upcoming Core
David Jiricek, the current crown jewel of the system, projects to be an aggressive entry defender while having the poise and vision to beat the first layer of forechecks. He’s got work to do to build the lower body strength that is necessary to be tall and maintain tight gaps. Recovering from ACL reconstruction surgery, and developing the necessary muscle activation and power, isn’t an easy task and his recent ankle injury, keeping him from IIHF World Championships, could be a downstream indicator that his strength recovery still needs work. Since his cross-ice vision and poise under pressure only require development we’ll pencil him in as a retriever (and as-such may be better suited away from Zach Werenski long-term).
Denton Mateychuk is a dynamic activating defenseman. He’s an excellent rush defender who covers all of the ice and uses this activation to maintain tight gaps across the neutral zone. He’s the picture of Devon Toews-style blue line protecting defenseman.
Stanislav Svozil is a bit of an enigma. He was drafted as an intelligent rush defender who wielded that intelligence to play in a shutdown role even if he didn’t have the prototypical size. Since joining the Regina Pats of the WHL, he’s become an offensive force. His intelligence is now being utilized by being ahead of the play, appearing most in his manipulation of defensemen to open passing lanes and creating opportunities. I think he projects best as a good puck-mover but his flexibility can only be an asset.
Corson Ceulemans is eager in joining the rush. He performed well offensively, especially in comparison to forwards on his team, at Wisconsin but stagnated year-over-year. Determining how he wields his tools is going to be of utmost importance if he wants to join his fellow prospects. Becoming a dynamic blue-line protector would appear to be an avenue to him joining Werenski. How he looks outside of the Wisconsin system is going to give the Blue Jackets a good idea of where he is and where he needs to go.
D Depth Charts
The Blue Jackets have to improve their D in short order but the aforementioned players will be ready sooner rather than later. The sticking point with Gavrikov, in respect to his extension, was with term rather than cap hit. This provides us a small glimpse into Kekalainen’s though process. It’s entirely possible that Gavrikov was seeking something 8 years in length, which isn’t something the Blue Jacket’s GM likes to do evidenced by Zach Werenski’s 6 year contract. It is also possible that Jarmo sees the same thing many scouts do in his young defensemen.
22-23 Year End
Werenski-Peeke
Bean-Boqvist
Blankenburg-Gudbranson
Berni-Bjork
It’s hard to place the specific order for this very fluid lineup. Bean’s icetime started to spike in Werenski’s absence but he too suffered a season ending injury shortly after. Peeke played more minutes than Boqvist until the end of the season, where they were very similar. Gudbranson rose until he was injured as well.
23-24
Werenski-Peeke
Bean-Jiricek
Boqvist-Gudbranson
Svozil-Blankenburg
Berni-Christiansen
It’s entirely possible that David Jiricek stays in the AHL for another year. We haven’t seen many high-performing, high draft-pick defensemen stay outside of the NHL for more than 2 years but there are some red flags in his performance. His skating and lower-body strength still needs work and his production in the AHL was largely driven by his impact on the powerplay.
The Detroit Red Wings are taking an overcooked approach with Simon Edvinsson and the Blue Jackets could follow the same route.
Still, if the Blue Jackets are planning roster moves, they should look for a left-handed defenseman who can pair well with Jiricek in the case that he does earn a spot at training camp.
Svozil looked excellent in his NHL debut at the end of the season. It is easiest to pencil him in with a role in the AHL, as an early call-up option, but if he earns a spot we’ve seen similar defensemen play next to Gudbranson on the third pair.
25-26
Zach Werenski-Andrew Peeke
Denton Mateychuk-David Jiricek
Stanislav Svozil - Erik Gudbranson
Corson Ceulemans - ?
These are players currently on the roster that are under contract through 2025-2026. It’s likely that the players on this roster are vastly different, as NHL rosters have a tendency to change over time. Still, if we take an optimistic view of prospect projection, we can leave space for 3 of the up-and-coming defensemen that the Blue Jackets have under team control.
The Gavrikov Hole
Vladislav Gavrikov was an important defenseman to the Columbus Blue Jackets. He loved to move up-ice and create offense. He was steady, reliable and an important penalty killer in Columbus. Jarmo Kekalainen has mentioned his desire to use the assets acquired from his trade to the LA Kings to fill the hole he left.
We can see here that the team was better defensively when he was on the ice. He was eating minutes and tough matchups, especially without Werenski.
His numbers got even better in LA when asked for a simple change in playstyle; defending the blueline aggressively.
If the Blue Jackets replace him, they should look to do the same thing.
Gavrikov Replacement Checklist:
Primary Considerations
Aggressive Blueline Protection
Plays Left Side
Better than Team Defense
Secondary Considerations
Veteran Savvy (bonus to Playoff or Stanley Cup Experience)
Surviving Tough Minutes
Penalty Killing
Short Term Contract Flexibility
A team can’t necessarily expect to check every box in a single trade. Still, it remains the north star. If the Blue Jackets are giving up major assets (which 22OA in this draft should be considered) they need to make sure they are making a quality bet.
The plan from here is to do an in-depth daily scouting report on a single defenseman and determine which boxes they check for the available roles. I will update this article with links to those scouting reports, so you can check here to for a full collection.
I will, in the individual scouting report, also seek to discuss the motivations and likelihood that the players are moved. Some of these defenseman might not seem like candidates, for one reason or another, but getting an idea of the entire landscape can put the value of a single player into a greater context.
Feel free to request specific player scouting reports and I will comb through their data on HockeyViz, EvolvingHockey and AllThreeZones.com and provide an objective analysis before commenting on their status as a target.
The Veteran Trade Candidates:
Ryan McDonagh
Nick Leddy
Derek Forbort
Longer-Term
Noah Hanifin
Sam Girard
K’Andre Miller
Sean Durzi
Upside Bets
Dylan Samberg
JJ Moser
Free Agents
Ryan Graves
Carson Soucy
Dmitri Orlov
Not Durzi on the left. He should play right side only and he's susceptible to pressure especially down low. He tends to make risky passes, doesn't mark his man or tie up sticks and he coughs up pucks. Hopefully he works on things over the summer but ... smh. Not on the left plz.