Evaluating Day 1 of Waddell's Reshaping and the Draft

Don Waddell, by all accounts, had a tremendously busy day yesterday at the opening of the draft. While he lost out on the biggest transaction, he did make the first move to reshape the 2025-26 roster while making some draft selections that he’s quite confident in.

Let’s get into the trades first, because there’s perhaps more meat on the draft bones. Aaron Portzline has been getting excellent information from the front office about the logic behind each of these moves, so I’ll lean heavily on that to help evaluate the decision making.

Noah Dobson Miss

The big story of the day was the Blue Jackets coming in second in the sweepstakes for Noah Dobson. Dobson was listed as a comparable to Waddell’s massive Dougie Hamilton and frankly would have been a fantastic add for the Columbus Blue Jackets for a few reasons. Where he’s better than Dougie is in his passing ability which looks near elite already. That positions him extremely well with counterattacking forwards but also with activating defensemen in Werenski and Mateychuk.

He’s good, he’s getting better and he’s got details to his game that suggest that this was always coming. Defensemen of this caliber don’t always come available but they don’t never come available.

From a big picture perspective, Dobson could have perhaps been the “Shea Theodore” to Zach Werenski’s “Alex Pietrangelo”. You might contest that Denton Mateychuk is already that, and I think I would agree, but there’s a lot more to go between now and then.

That being said, it’s not like Dobson’s game is without warts. This past season, the peak above the graph, was his first where he was a positive defensive player. That comes at an interesting time because he saw a dramatic decrease in his offensive production. He scored 70 points a few seasons ago primarily because of his production on the powerplay (good passing will get you that).

Therein lies the crux. Dobson is getting paid $9.5 million for 8 years which is Zach Werenski money (the cap increase might make that look extremely palatable shortly but that is it’s own issue). Dobson would not have been paid that much if he hadn’t score those points on the powerplay, that’s just the reality of NHL contracts. Points and time on ice drive money more than certain factors that influence winning.

Unless Dobson is earning PP1 time on your team, you’re paying him for something he did in the past and something you’re not necessarily expecting him to do in the future. The wrinkle with Theodore, or Montour for Florida, is that they were underpaid relative to those contributions and that is perhaps why they were “allowed” to play such roles on the roster.

The margins of value work against the Blue Jackets in this case. It makes sense they lost the auction for Dobson because Montreal needs what he provides a little more and the Islanders don’t have to play them four times a season.

Accoring to Waddell, the Islanders wanted both first round picks (14 and 20) along with Dmitri Voronkov and a prospect. Montreal ultimately paid their two firsts (16 and 17) and Emil Heineman. Darche wanted Waddell to win the bidding war, and that CBJ package is much larger than Montreal’s, and I think they rightfully didn’t.

The rest of the value goes a ton of directions. Dobson is a right handed defensemen which I believe merits risk and overpayment. Bouchard, Ekblad, Pietrangelo, Makar have all been top pairing defensemen on dominant pairs. Why? Because there are plenty of left handed defensemen who fill in the gaps in their skillset.

Werenski has been saddled with Fabbro, Provorov, Bean, Boqvist, Peeke. Why? Jarmo made some bad moves but also because there simply aren’t right handed defensemen that complement elite puck movers as well. Damon Severson, if he ever decides to get it together, is literally one of the best options.

I say this primarily because an overpayment for a right handed defenseman might be considered an investment for return on future value. In 5 years, $9.5 million will still be big but it might look plenty more comfortable for a player whose primary role is to win 5v5 minutes.

The Blue Jackets lost the bidding war to Montreal. They lost a playoff spot to Montreal. The Blue Jackets didn’t make moves at the deadline that could have tilted that balance either by spending and getting the playoffs or by selling and having a little extra ammunition.

Marginal values and differences, perhaps just luck considering the divisional tax and Montreal’s somehow more unsustainable second half of the year, but the Blue Jackets remain a bit behind all the same. Eventually, the Blue Jackets are going to have to be a team that creates their own luck.

Charlie Coyle Trade

This trade is a mixed bag with a lot of complicated factors. Mostly it’s all bad though. First let’s start with the player and the fit. Don Waddell wanted a right handed center to help with faceoffs. He got him.

Charlie Coyle grades out as nearly average in all of the big metrics. An average NHLer should indeed play on the third line.

He stands out most noticeably for his deployment against top competition and his puck moving work. Given Dean Evason’s deployment tactics, of loading a matchup line with hard minutes to free up top players to play offense, he honestly makes a ton of sense for that role. Last years’ matchup iteration (at least when it featured Mathieu Olivier, Zach Aston-Reese and Cole Sillinger or Justin Danforth) struggled heavily because they couldn’t get the puck out.

In fact, Louis Boulet brings even more reason for hope. Coyle fits that role well but he might fit even better with who the Blue Jackets have.

Boone Jenner and Charlie Coyle, if deployed together, have gaps in their skillset that are perfectly filled by Kent Johnson. That rocks. Would I be upset that Kent Johnson is once again not played with the best talent on the roster? Yes. But there’s merit to him getting line driving touches, Sam Reinhart played a lot with Florida’s third line until they loaded him up with Barkov.

A couple of boxes well checked. From a roster fit perspective, and from the perspective of accomplishing certain goals, the Blue Jackets are a better team. If Coyle, who brought average NHL value but under a heavy load, replaces Sillinger’s minutes, who struggled mightily and looked like one of the worst NHLers under a heavy load, the Blue Jackets come out on top.

Which brings me to the next point. The cost and the baggage.

Miles Wood is terrible. Any gains made by replacing Sillinger’s minutes with Coyle’s might be undone by including Miles Wood on the roster.

It’s really not good guys and it’s made worse by the contract. Miles Wood is yet another bottom sixer with term 4 more years at $2.5 million. The best case scenario for the Blue Jackets is that now they have Miles Wood and Mathieu Olivier on the fourth line for the next four years with each at a much higher cap hit than a contender’s fourth line.

For what Coyle is he’s perhaps overpaid and there’s risk with him only having one season before free agency at age 33 (I don’t like acquiring players like this because it puts a GM in a vulnerable decision making window). Even keeping Coyle isn’t an excellent proposition given his age and downward performance trend.

The worst bit of business is the cap hit relative to Colorado. Colorado didn’t have a lot of space, made mistakes in signing Miles Wood to term and in acquiring Charlie Coyle at the deadline and then were completely bailed out by the Blue Jackets to the tune of a future second round pick, their 3rd round pick this year and Gavin Brindley, a recent high second round pick.

That feels like a steep cost to clear $7 million for a contender.

The numbers aren’t on Gavin Brindley’s side either in points or stature but I can’t help but feel like the Blue Jackets have moved on from one of the most interesting prospects in their pool. He scored well early in the AHL but fell off and was eventually placed on an AHL fourth line with Roman Ahcan and Joseph Labate while very short AHL point producers in Trey Fix-Wolansky and Rocco Grimaldi vacuumed up offensive opportunities. When I watched Gavin Brindley, he looked really good.

Perhaps the Blue Jackets have decided to move on from a short player that Waddell has clearly decided he doesn’t have time for (he made some comments about being handed a very short prospect pool though it’s interesting that he traded David Jiricek who was among the tallest) in hopes that the rest are the better options. Luca Pinelli, James Malatesta and Jordan Dumais are still around and William Whitelaw is still in the system. Didn’t seem to bother him in Carolina but perhaps without Tulsky the prospect package dealmaking isn’t there either.

In any case, this offseason has been a tremendously poor offseason for any team with draft capital and cap space and a great season to be close to the cap with bad players making too much money. Evander Kane was moved for a 4th and he’s a below replacement player. Mason Marchment is honestly good, perhaps benefitting from two players who make his job easy, and it now seems like a 3rd and a 4th was a tremendously small return.

The trade deadline last season featured seller costs that I found ridiculous. Maybe this offseason the buyers’ cost will be ridiculous and Coyle will look like a relative bargain.

I haven’t seen any deals that suggest Waddell is giving the Blue Jackets significant advantages either now or in the future. He made his own life hard by keeping Provorov instead of selling in an astronomical buyers market and so far he doesn’t look particularly proficient at working uphill either. Time will tell.

Jackson Smith

The Blue Jackets couldn’t find deals and ultimately made their selections at 14 and 20. They added Jackson Smith and Pyotr Andreanov, two picks for players that could mean the Blue Jackets win big.

Jackson Smith, selected 14th, has a tremendous profile for a draft eligible defenseman. From the microstats perspective, there’s nothing not to like. Smith’s Creation, Involvement and Build-Up contributions were all elite. His transition profile was among the best ever tracked.

EliteProspects, who employ Mitch Brown among plenty of others, believe Smith is the most underrated player in the draft (though pay special attention to David St. Louis’ comments about having to be in the appropriate mindset to evaluate him). According to Aaron Portzline, it appears Don Waddell would agree:

Told #CBJ had D Jackson Smith No. 4 on their master list.

That’s a bit tough for me to wrap my head around personally. In a draft with Matthew Schaefer, Porter Martone, James Hagens, Michael Misa and a good stock of other interesting forwards, a defenseman at four beggars belief. In order for him to hit at the #4 ranking he has to perform at a Miro Heiskanen, Jake Sanderson type level.

Is it possible? Yes but in my viewings, and in the EP video above, I think you’ll notice that it’s not a direct line from here to there either. If Jackson Smith can become even equal to the sum of his tools he’ll be a fantastic NHL defenseman. Right now, though, there’s a disconnect between his tools and performance. It looks to me like he often doesn’t connect his actions to the greater state of the game and sometimes just does things to do them.

So what? Well, he was the 2nd pick in the WHL entry draft which suggests he was highly skilled from a young age. He’s bigger and faster than everyone in Junior and so it might just be that he hasn’t really had to adapt. He’s going to Penn State next season which will indeed force him to adapt and through that new environment he could really shine.

Said differently, processing the NHL game as a defenseman is hard. You have to do very difficult things very efficiently and Smith, relative to a Makar or Heiskanen or Sanderson (or Werenski) doesn’t look like he possesses the same hockey sense.

The counterpoints to the above are that there are plenty of defensemen who took a long time to figure out how to connect their actions to the larger objective. There’s also that Tri-City had mostly terrible forwards (I wonder if this contributed to the exit volume of both Smith and Elick being so dramatic).

In the WHL this season, Jackson Smith contributed to a higher percentage of his teams’ 5v5 offense than D+1 players like Sam Dickinson and Carter Yakemchuk. I’d say Yakemchuk has significant powerplay potential, where I don’t think that’s going to be the roles of Smith or Dickinson.

In terms of overall offensive creation, Smith was in line with those recent high picks though well behind offensive genius Zayne Parekh and D-1 stud Xavier Villeneuve. In build-up, Smith was fantastic.

The problem with Smith, relative to the best defensemen, is his reliance on shooting volume over playmaking. The best D in the NHL are all playmakers, passing/vision are skills that align with defenseman puck moving duties in the defensive zone as well and perhaps even in reading offense in order to stop it, with Werenski being one of the notable shot-oriented exceptions.

Jackson Smith needs to improve in some connective areas but could absolutely be a homerun. At the top end, given appropriate development and seasoning, Smith could hope to be a Thomas Harley (I don’t think we should overlook just how much of Thomas Harley’s success comes from not just the mistakes evaluators made in overworrying about his decisions but in just how good Rich Peverley is at extracting the best in Dallas) or a Travis Sanheim. Early career K’Andre Miller is perhaps a better best-case with 24-25 K’Andre Miller, talented and big but unable to bring on-ice results, being something more likely.

Worst case scenario is all moreso opportunity cost and a Blue Jackets team that spends time working through Smith’s growing pains only to move him later. It seems reasonable that Smith will at least become a Carson Soucy type entry killer but kicks around a few teams but does provide big role value if insulated properly. True worst case is a Jack Johnson or Tyler Myers big and toosly but completely ineffective.

As much as I like Carter Bear and was gutted that he was picked just before, and as much as I really like Victor Eklund especially in the context of moving Brindley, it doesn’t look like those were even on the table if Jackson Smith was there.

With the Smith selection, the Blue Jackets’ long-term future (Fantilli, Lindstrom, Smith) all look shaped from the same mold: incredible athletes, dynamic skill (you can certainly include Marchenko and Johnson on that front too) but without a strong cerebral element. Look for the Blue Jackets to find some high level thinkers and connectors to surround them whether through the draft or at the NHL level when they’re there (Sean Monahan is a great start).

Goalies and Relative Value

If you told me at the start that the Blue Jackets went D and G with their first round selections, I would have been devastated. I’m still not totally sold that this was appropriate value but I’m thankful that it was Smith and Andreyanov over other options (like trading up for Radim Mrtka or selecting Hensler at 14).

I can’t say I know much about goalies but all of the smart goalie people that I’ve seen commenting on the pick seem to believe that he’s got something special. He would have to in order to be selected in the first round where I’m still not sure it’s the value play. If he hits the Blue Jackets might have found an elite goaltender who is emerging as their young core is hitting their primes.

In the context of the rest of the draft and trades, I wonder if their was opportunity for more value. No other goalie was drafted in the first round, Ravensbergen and Semyon Frolov appear to be the next wave of goalies and they’re still waiting. It’s possible that the Blue Jackets think he’s that special which Waddell did indicate when he mentioned that he was indeed the highest ranked player on their list.

Where I’m somewhat frustrated was in the value of that pick at 20 relative to some of the other trade down values. The Blue Jackets traded away their third round pick, number 77 in this draft, and now don’t have another until #109.

The pick behind the Blue Jackets, #21 owned by Ottawa, was traded to Nashville for #23 and #67. I suppose you don’t risk it if you think this goalie is the best player, but three spots down to make up a pick just lost feels like an easy risk to take all things consider. Goalies are incredibly volatile, easily acquirable even if they are elite prospects (Devon Levi, Spencer Knight and Yaroslav Askarov have all been traded) and an extra third for a 3 spot drop feels like a smart move to me.

At the end of the first draft day and a selection of trades, I’m left wondering where the Blue Jackets’ competitive edge is.

Their roster is near the cap floor, poised for great growth from young players to be sure, but without the extreme wealth of talent of cup contenders and not improved relative to their nearest competitors.

Jackson Smith has hype and could certainly be good but valuing a player as the fourth best when he was ultimately available at pick fourteen means you’re very either seeing something different from the rest or valuing it differently. Picking goalies and defensemen in the first round come with great opportunity cost relative to forwards (who are much easier to understand and generally provide more value with available analytics). Not trading down for an extra, better than recently lost, third round pick doesn’t exactly demonstrate knowledge of the volatility.

The Blue Jackets don’t have a second round pick this year because of the Ivan Provorov trade, don’t have their second round pick next year because of the Patrik Laine trade, traded one of the second round picks in 2027 (which they gained by trading David Jiricek), traded away Gavin Brindley who was a recent second round pick.

It seems to me that the Blue Jackets are betting on their ability to evaluate players and prospects that much better than everyone else because they have to be right if they’re going to go off-value (there are very real cases that Jackson Smith and Pyotr Andreyanov become stars). For the Blue Jackets, I can’t say that confidence is really earned (drafting is very difficult and beating the market consistently is equally difficult). There’s plenty of time to find an edge and continue to improve the roster, or even to accumulate some more picks, but the Blue Jackets better hope they can start winning on some of these margins.