CBJ vs NSH 10/09-- Post-game Review
New Charts, Ryan O'Reilly Net-Front Powerplay, Marchenko and Voronkov Rush, Fantilli Details
First game of the year, a lot of excitement and the True Debut of A Bunch of New Charts.
The Blue Jackets took a loss here and one that looked a little bit different than many of their close losses last year. I think this is the first example of a game where the Blue Jackets were in the drivers’ seat for a long period of the game but small mistakes and a lack of finishing focus prevented them from getting over the hump (and maybe the unknowable void that is goaltender interference).
Nashville isn’t projected to be a good team. They have a ton of youth and a ton of very veteran talent. At this point, it’s safe to assume they aren’t particularly good and these kinds of games are something the Blue Jackets will have to learn how to win. They aren’t scrappy underdogs taking teams by surprise anymore, they’ll have to convert their actual-ice tilt into wins.
The Charts
First game of the new season means there are a ton of jumping off points and everything feels like a story.
From a Birds Eye perspective, this game was largely dictated by some incredible chance generation on the powerplay by Nashville, so we’ll definitely have to look into it there. First read, too many opportunities in the first place including a brief spell 5v3.
Second, the Blue Jackets created a ton of recovery chances, had a good selection of forecheck and rush variety and nothing outwardly dominant. The *only* goal they scored did come from a rebound/deflection type courtesy of Dmitri Voronkov. Little look but CBJ dominated the 4v4 play on the ice.
Nashville was much better at consistently breaking out of the zone and got a great counter chance that was limited to the backhand.
Overall, I think we can see the start of some new tactical tweaks but mostly we’re looking for precursor signal for the players ready to take steps forward leading this team. On that note, Dmitri Voronkov, Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli and Damon Severson took great first steps.
Severson, in particular, showed a puck-moving and retrieving punch that motivated Evason to shift him up in the lineup late in the game in search of more offense. He finished as the second most deployed defenseman at 5v5 and made me write some new code because he got so many shifts with Werenski as a unit.
From the individual contribution perspective, those three continue to stand out especially for their play in special situations: 5v5 and in particular rush contributions from the top line. From Nashville’s perspective, Ryan O’Reilly and Steven Stamkos looked quite good on the powerplay and Forsberg and Bunting great off of it.
Stories of the Game
Ryan O’Reilly’s Net-front Masterclass
Nashville didn’t only create through Ryan O’Reilly but I think his interactions with his fellow teammates demonstrate just how impactful and important this specific position can be. I’ll group all of the clips together here but talk about them one by one.
Apologies for the ESPN overlay appearance. I indented to clip it out but noticed an unfortunate pattern within them.
All three of this significant powerplay chances come off of Erik Gudbranson failed clears. I didn’t intend to sewer the guy, and recognize that this isn’t an easy thing to do under pressure, but it’s there in each of the clips.
More to the point, Ryan O’Reilly and his interactions with Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos. There are a lot of parallels here between Nashville and the Blue Jackets’ powerplay. O’Reilly feels a lot like Sean Monahan, and especially comes up high to help diffuse pressure while remaining a versatile threat as a playmaker. Steven Stamkos brings a lot of the same energy as Kirill Marchenko, at least on the Nashville powerplay. He was, and may still be, a better power shooting threat from the left flank but he doesn’t have Kucherov making it easy for him either.
The first two chances involve dragging Erik Gudbranson out of position and stressing his positional responsibilities. That isn’t to say he couldn’t have done better but he was very much the bearer of wicked choices from Nashville’s tactical choices.
The Stamkos to O’Reilly net-front chance was brilliant but you have to think Provorov and Gudbranson could have done better. I’m not really sure that this over-coverage is necessary but let’s just hope 5v3s don’t occur with any frequency.
Marchessault remains the x-factor on so many of these plays and represents something the Blue Jackets don’t have: another right handed threat. He helps Nashville bring varied looks to the interior when attacking off of different sides and helps them exploit bumper and goal line switches.
Here, the interior PK triangle is pulled significantly out of shape and Marchessault finds a solution. Nothing too dangerous but a near miss on a rebound from O’Reilly and it might have been something different.
The third sequence, and the one resulting in a goal, is pure brilliance from O’Reilly and a masterclass in testing each creation possibility from the position.
First a “standard” goal-line to bumper setup that uses speed and passing off the defenseman’s heels to create a dangerous chance. Marchessault puts it off the post. O’Reilly and Marchessault’s movement higher on the ice leading to this sequence is something worth studying here as well.
Then, a different passing target that takes advantage of the CBJ’s overload on strong side. Marchessault gets the pass at the dots from the wall, which brings over another PKer and then opens a lane to the weakside to Steven Stamkos. Charlie Coyle gets a great stick to break up the pass but Stamkos is still credited for a “bat” attempt.
Some more puck movement later, Gudbranson has now decided that the bumper is completely unlocking the powerplay and he must take it away. This gives O’Reilly a ton of space, you really never want to see the PK all that close together in such a compromised shape, and he beats Jet Greaves 1on1. You can see Greaves’ save idea here too, he tried to attack the puck at the point of release but O’Reilly “found” the gap.
A three move sequence that threatens a different player until finally cashing in. If you’ve wondered why I’ve been so loud in my desire for another right handed player to add to the top powerplay unit, I think the Marchessault-O’Reilly interchange demonstrates the power of rotation very well here.
Voronkov Rush Creation
Both of these players are so brilliant partially because their skillsets are incredibly complementary but also because they find skills to express in any given situation.
The game started with fundamentally brilliant one-touch playmaking from Dmitri Voronkov to find Kirill Marchenko in space and it just kept happening. This game was a perfect demonstration of drawing pressure and attention and hitting Marchenko open on the weakside.
Voronkov’s first season was filled with these moments of brilliance but at that time he seemed almost allergic to puck carrying for literally any duration. In these, he’s carving out more time and space and more willing to carry the puck to help stack the odds in his favor.
It wasn’t all Voronkov playmaking, that final sequence resulting in a Voronkov post was downright special combination play from a variety of players on a single sequence. If they can repeat this, there’s plenty of points in the future.
It’s not worth breaking out into it’s own section yet but Provorov and Severson as a pair really worked well together. What they did great this game was primarily a result of Severson’s great retrievals, something he’s been incredibly risky with in the past, and perhaps a new wrinkle in exiting the zone from the Blue Jackets. The middle forward is often pushing out of the zone and both defensemen found them in advanced positions perhaps increasing the versatility of exits rather than simply playing the wall first every time. Something to track.
Marchenko Puck Recovery
Kirill Marchenko’s stick is a special weapon, not only for its scoring potential but also in how he uses it to consistently win pucks. Though it feels uncanny and perhaps impossible to repeat, we can at least say that it’s back to start this season.
Some more of the same themes as above. A more direct middle approach off the opening faceoff, rather than reloading and playing underneath wings, a Monahan dump into an absurd clean win followed with excellent creation from Severson and Marchenko and finally a Marchenko clean win from a Voronkov one-touch dump that ultimately results in the only goal for the Blue Jackets.
Special shoutout to Denton Mateychuk, whose clips I needed to include because of just how brilliant and patient he already is in opening and exploiting space.
Adam Fantilli
Too early to say anything definitive, but if this is how Fantilli looks for the rest of the season, he has already addressed a whole host of concerns. His defensive zone interventions were timely and effective, his intensity and recoverys along the wall in the offensive zone were very clean and his early-touch playmaking was great.
There’s nothing crazy to write home about from Fantilli quite yet, and his playmaking didn’t always put his teammates in fantastic positions, but it looks like a direct step forward in a number of areas. Stay tuned.
Defensive Zone Touches from Forwards
The Blue Jackets forward group had a host of unfortunate work in the defensive zone this game. Some unlucky, to be sure, but others that might be signs of more worrying trends.
In particular, Miles Wood, Isac Lundestrom and Dante Fabbro combined for a particularly dangerous concoction of needless possession waste and turnovers. Jet Greaves is a fantastic puck player but if his forwards panic at receiving the puck, it’s going to be a wasted skill and potential source of danger.
This perhaps combines with the unnecessary penalties from Zach Aston-Reese, Isac Lundestrom, Jenner and Monahan (whose penalty seemed unlucky more than anything) to create an unnerving potential. The Blue Jackets certainly do not need a fourth line that puts their team in significant trouble both at 5v5 and in the penalty box and they don’t need their leadership group spending time there either.
Notes
I’m going to try to use this setting to talk about a couple of things without major video support. We’ll see how it goes!
Werenski and Monahan
It’s only game one, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but it’s no coincidence that the Blue Jackets roundly won the 5v5 chance share but couldn’t get over the hump. Werenski and Monahan looked like shades of themselves and these are two of the most poised and effective moment to moment creators. Look for bigger performances soon.
Michael Bunting
Michael Bunting is a player who, theoretically, checks a lot of boxes for a potential acquisition for the Blue Jackets. He’s played third wheel to skilled players before, can hang when games get chippy and seems like a player that could be pretty cheap. He had a pretty productive game.
After seeing and hearing this particular outburst, directed at Fedor Svechkov, I think there should be giant red flashing lights around any potential acquisition here.
Nashville, as a team that could potentially bottom out and look to offload some pieces, have a ton of interest for the Blue Jackets. Filip Forsberg is the perfect skillset, NMC, relative age and acquisition cost notwithstanding, where Stamkos and Marchessault bring veterancy and powerplay acumen (in perhaps equally terrifying doses considering their age, contracts and NMCs as well.
They also have young players like Fedor Svechkov, Luke Evangelista or even prospects like Ryker Lee that all seem incredibly interesting with respect to their fits around the young Blue Jackets core. A team to “watch” for Armchair GM vultures like me.