2023-24 Debrief: Lessons Learned and Questions Asked

Throughout the different elements of analysis, I have been keeping track of potential points of inquiry. In moving through the quality of competition and AllThreeZones layers, some questions were answered and some questions were instead just underscored.

Best Players Need To Be the Best

The difference between the early season and “The Good Stretch” was primarily driven by increased ice-time given to top players like Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski and Boone Jenner.

It’s unfortunate that these players were given so much time, specifically in losing games against bottom competition, but it still squares with what the research says: hockey is a strong-link game.

The team most likely to win is going to be the team with the best player on the ice regardless of how bad the bottom of their roster is. There are always caveats and plenty more robust analysis to be conducted on the topic as it relates to the salary cap but the conclusion is simple: the Blue Jackets looked better because Zach Werenski and Johnny Gaudreau played much more like themselves at during this stretch.

It’s a pretty easy conclusion to come to, but that doesn’t mean our work is finished. In order for the Blue Jackets to be good, and they should be trying to be good on the ice, they’ll need to understand the root causes of increased performance. Did these two stars simply take matters into their own hands? Did a systems or tactics change modulate their effectiveness?

Werenski and Gaudreau found chemistry with each other and the results spoke for themselves. Continuing to nurture that performance, while surrounding them with players that support their games, should be a point of emphasis going forward. The young kids are going to need North Stars and learn what top performers look like up close.

Ultimately, the Blue Jackets will also have to do the same once young potential stars in Adam Fantilli and David Jiricek (among others, if all goes well) force their hand. Understanding teammate and role effects could pay dividends on continued roster construction.

Increase in Shot Suppression

Across the board, every Blue Jacket on the roster was on the ice for few Shot Attempts per ice-time during the Good Stretch than they were before (CA/60). The root cause of this appeared to be a systems change, if the change in HockeyViz shot heatmaps speaks truth, but we can’t really tell with certainty from outside of the organization.

In reading comments from Zach Werenski about the defensive system the Blue Jackets deployed, he compared it to Vegas but stated that they were more aggressive.

The Box+1 took the NHL by storm but there were a variety of degrees of execution. Edmonton just wielded this system to frustrate a potent rush attack from the Dallas Stars but the New York Islanders, similar to the Blue Jackets, floundered in impotence prior to Patrick Roy bringing more aggression.

Perhaps the new aggression simply came from adaptation. It’s rare to find any athlete that can be perfectly aggressive without fully formed instincts. New situations are more confusing which breeds hesitation which is the enemy of aggression.

If Pascal Vincent made a change, it appeared to be a fruitful one. The question, then, would be whether or not continued systems changes could continue to improve results.

Adopting a more aggressive system a la Carolina or Philadelphia could lean into the pacey and aggressive style rather than the more conservative throwback of Las Vegas. Then again, yet another change of defensive system could set a true competitive timetable back another year.

Failed Exits

The above being said, it’s entirely possible that the Blue Jackets improved in terms of CA/60 simply because they also cleaned up their capacity to exit the zone with control.

In the early AllThreeZones sample, the Blue Jackets were the worst team in the league at Failed Exits/60 and were similar in Botched Retrievals/60 as well.

The worst performing failed exit teams: Columbus, Arizona, LA, NJ, Calgary, Ottawa. These are all teams that either failed to take a step and underperformed (New Jersey, Ottawa) or dramatically underperformed in the second half of the season (Arizona, Calgary) or rolled over in the playoffs (LA).

The top performing teams, those with the fewest failed exits/60, Carolina, Nashville, Colorado, Philadelphia, Vancouver. All teams that performed either above expectations or made good (but not perfect) runs in the playoffs.

The root cause of fewer failed exits is most likely multi-faceted. Like Jack Han usually says, you have to look upstream of the issue to find the cause.

From there, I assumed that more aggressive entry defending would be a contributing factor. Unfortunately, the data suggests that while specific players did become more aggressive they did not become better (Werenski, Boqvist) but others simply worse all around (Severson, Jiricek).

Perhaps then, retrievals are upstream of exits while defensive coverage and neutral zone defending are upstream of retrievals. This would mean that simply executing the defensive structure better could have been the

If those are true, the more aggressive but more permissive heat chart could help explain the potential increase in successful zone exits. Instead of having extremely long shifts with worn out players, the Blue Jackets sacrificed some shot quality against for more energy in their bodies on recoveries.

Then again, perhaps Zach Werenski simply going god-mode as a puck mover had something to do with it as well.

Without deep diving the tape on all of the pairings and defensive coverages, it would be difficult to drive more powerful conclusions.

Zach Werenski-Adam Boqvist

During the “Good Stretch” Werenski and Boqvist took all of the most difficult matchups. Considering the uptick in deployment of Gaudreau-Jenner-Roslovic, it’s likely that the five man unit was a primary driver of success against this competition cohort.

For a while, Werenski has been one of the best puck-movers in the NHL but some of his offensive and defensive numbers have lagged behind. His 5v5 offense rebounded but his defense (at least in terms of rates against) didn’t. Still, he won his minutes at 5v5.

Driving successful retrievals is a very difficult but highly necessary skill for top defensemen in the NHL. All Legitimate #1 Defensemen turn loose pucks into exits at an extremely proficient rate. They simply tilt the ice and make it look easy.

Adam Boqvist played a part in Werenski’s domination as a puck-mover and activator. He’s a proficient passer though has also not found stability in execution. Werenski talks about how much he loves playing with Boqvist because they have a similar read on the game. To that extent, their chemistry and understanding plays a huge part in Werenski’s success.

Underlying all of Werenski’s habits lays a set of skills that create predictability. He wants to control the outcome of the next few seconds so that he can start dashing up ice and creating numbers advantages. His ability to manipulate forecheckers and deliver precise simple passes to teammates in better space is a hallmark.

His chemistry with Boqvist then helps drive that predictability.

The problem is that Boqvist is highly deficient in other areas that should complement Werenski. He isn’t great at in-zone defense, though he was dramatically improved from whatever last year was, isn’t a wall-stopper and also isn’t a neutral zone killer.

Still, chemistry should be an important consideration when forming partners with Zach Werenski. If we need defensive improvement, we should still try to find someone with whom he can generate chemistry. Werenski hasn’t really had a perfectly complementary, stable partner in his career.

Seth Jones worked because he was also really good but his struggles at neutral zone defense undermined the fit. Since he left, the Blue Jackets have rotated Jake Bean, Andrew Peeke and Adam Boqvist through as his main partners.

Theoretically, Damon Severson was that complementary guy. The issue? Well, firstly, that Damon Severson makes too much money. Secondly, that they performed quite poorly when played together outside of the “Good Stretch.”

Both of these defensemen lack a certain killer instinct at net front defense. They simply allowed too many high danger opportunities and allowed goals well in excess of their xG. While they are both talented and match in many ways this might be a no-go deficiency overlap.

Never was this more exemplified than in their games against Florida and Dallas early in the season. These are two highly talented teams who are skilled at breaking down even the best coverages (except Edmonton apparently), even still the Werenski-Severson pair was exposed.

Perhaps, continued partnership will help Werenski and Severson get on the same page (they worked well together at the end of the season in a matchup role with Texier-Sillinger-Marchenko). Theoretically Severson has all of the passing and activation abilities that Boqvist has with enhanced neutral zone play killing and the ability to unlock quick counterstrike offense.

If Severson is the in-house Werenski partner solution, the Blue Jackets will have to contend with some potential salary cap distribution inefficiency lower in their defensive pairs.

Ivan Provorov-Damon Severson

Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson are two of the higher performing defensemen in terms of underlying numbers, CF% and xGF%, for the entire season. They also both performed well during the Good Stretch and Provorov showed well consistently in the more offensive leaning AllThreeZones metrics, albeit in a very small sample.

Their heatmap showed as much as well. When placed together, they generated better underlying results. Still, in terms of actual goals, they did not win their minutes.

This is amplified by the fact that during the Good Stretch, Werenski and Boqvist took all of the most difficult minutes. That being said, the top pair also had the best forward linemates.

We’ve seen a similar pattern with both defensemen prior to their joining the Blue Jackets.

Severson was a good add from New Jersey because he found success in multiple roles. He showed the ability to dial it back and kill plays against top competition but was at his best when his killing and counterattacking happened against worse forwards (paired with Kevin Bahl on the third pairing).

Largely, this makes sense given the quick and risky nature of some of his offensive passing attempts. Good forwards can anticipate some of those passes to get back in time, turn them over less in the first place and also have the talent to make Severson pay when he makes a mistake.

Provorov, in Philadelphia, posted poor results against top competition with a younger more offensively inclined defense partner. He may lack pure shutdown chops and is better when his relative lack of offensive and play killing tools aren’t met with stiff resistance.

He’s largely in the right spots and goes through the proper motions which brings him to a solid, if unremarkable, total game impact. His propensity for big mistakes also shone through at different times throughout the season.

If the two remain with the Blue Jackets, they must be treated as they are. The problem, at least for total roster construction, is then that any other players have to either be Zach Werenski partners or Erik Gudbranson partners which aren’t the most development friendly positions.

David Jiricek’s Demotion

It’s clear that Jiricek’s defensive play had ultimately slipped and was the primary reason for his demotion to the stability of the AHL. So far, he’s been an absolute offensive force in big moments for the Cleveland Monsters though he’s still a work in progress in defensive zone coverage and with his skating.

That all being said, he flashed an immense ceiling even in limited minutes in the NHL. With proper development, he should be a top puck-mover with the tools to create significant advantages for his team.

I wouldn’t completely rule out another year in the AHL. Consistency, after all, is going to be extremely important especially within the context of the vary many young forwards already on the roster. It’s not unusual for talented defensemen to take longer. Thomas Harley, Evan Bouchard, Brandt Clarke, Simon Edvinsson all completed nearly full seasons in the AHL in their D+3.

Best case scenario is Jiricek crushes an offseason and demands a top four role with his play but additional time developing supportive skills in the AHL wouldn’t be a bad result.

Adam Fantilli’s Actual Goals Struggles

Adam Fantilli mightily struggled in underlying metrics once he got settled into the Blue Jackets. Ironically, or perhaps not, he was indeed one of the better players when playing on full instinct in his first few games of the season.

During “the Good Stretch",” he was deployed alongside Johnny Gaudreau against extremely difficult matchups and the results were disastrous.

Speaking frankly, many of his observed goals metrics weren’t good no matter the sample. He finished the season with a 37 GF% at 5v5 which would make him the worst Blue Jackets skater to earn more than 500 minutes (Laine, Pyythia, Christiansen, Gaunce were worse in fewer minutes), Erik Gudbranson being the second worst at 41.81 GF%.

The driving force, at least according to his Quality of Competition data, was the disappearance of his ability to generate quantity of shot attempts all the while allowing well over expected actual goals. Worse, he quite legitimately didn’t generate any goals against both elite and bottom competition.

Part of his struggles here are simply him playing in the NHL in his D+1 and alongside adjusting to the pace and talent of the league are some wasteful habits. Primarily, he has a tendency to throw pucks into the crease without an apparent plan. Truly top players hold onto pucks and work to create breakdowns before making possession ending players.

Similarly, his high-pace style means there’s little margin for error when moving up-ice. The Blue Jackets will have to find him linemates that can give him the puck at the right time.

If we observe Fantilli with Gaudreau, the problems appear to be across the ice. If Justin Danforth was responsible for the defensive quadrant responsibilities, he performed admirably, if not, then it looks like Fantilli at least covered the upper slot reasonably well.

The most dangerous data game from what would be either Fantilli or Gaudreau’s area of responsibility. Still, all told, these xG numbers aren’t all that bad. His primary right side defenseman were David Jiricek and Erik Gudbranson, perhaps their abilities are having some effect on the data.

In limited minutes with Damon Severson, Fantilli put together a quite spectacular shot chart. In those minutes xGA were roundly beaten by actual goals against. There are simply too many shots coming from high danger areas. If the pair is played together, some defensive zone improvement will be necessary.

This Severson-Fantilli pairing makes a lot of sense, at least to me. Severson is a right-handed puck mover which makes delivering cross-ice neutral zone passes, as well as passes from the wall to the center lane, much easier to complete. Similarly, when Severson pinches down the wall, Fantilli is skilled at timing his movement and is excellent at getting shots off of his stick under pressure in the slot.

Fantilli graded out extremely well on a specific type of offensive production and it happened to correspond with an area of significant strength for Severson in the early season. I have not, even in the slightest, done any research as to whether this is a reliable and stable metric so take it with a grain of salt.

If the Blue Jackets can lean into the neutral zone killing identity, they could have a really strong counterattacking system with Adam Fantilli. If Werenski gets a new partner who can do the same (or Boqvist can improve) or if David Jiricek reaches his NZ killing potential it could be the start of an offensive identity.

When we look at his AllThreeZones data, Fantilli actually grades out quite well. He’s a high volume puck transporter and a dual offensive threat. Usually, transition success predicts future all-around success and in that regard he’s got a solid base to build from.

Fantilli seems well aware of his deficiencies in these regards and mentioned as much heading into the offseason. How much of the gap he closes, between himself and the best players in the league, could be the difference between an easy to construct roster with him and Gaudreau at the top or something much more difficult.

Yegor Chinakhov’s Glow Up

Yegor Chinakhov was, perhaps, the biggest surprise to me from the data set review but also perhaps of this entire season. I struggled to find a place for him on rosters of the future but he entered this season with dynamic skating and steadily grew throughout the season.

After being paired with players that could find him in the neutral zone, namely Dmitri Voronkov, his ability to crack defenses really shone through.

After finding a high paced forecheck with the invention of the Russian line, he continued to grow as he battled for the puck line and won races to loose pucks. Similarly, his ability to get on his horse made him a lethal threat for chipped pucks out of the neutral zone.

Chinakhov was ultimately rewarded with a stint alongside Johnny Gaudreau, a brief opportunity on the penalty kill, prior to his injury, and a featured downhill shoot/pass option role on PP2.

In his time alongside Johnny Gaudreau, he and his teammates really found a way to drive underlying results. Chinakhov’s dynamic skating and offensive zone reloads cracked open defenses and gave Johnny Gaudreau a lot of space to create. Though Chinakhov doesn’t yet have the drive to build possession and improve shot danger, he also has a uniquely powerful wrist shot that might afford him a less-efficient approach.

Whether he improves in that regard, building danger through passing sequences, may make the difference between a true offensive difference maker and a secondary high-volume 5v5 scorer. If he just wants to spam long distance wrist shots from the short porch, there’s a role for that but it’ll be primarily away from highly talented playmakers.

Chinakhov looks like he could be on the verge of becoming something special. Whether that’s as a vertical pressure forechecker on a matchup line or something more dynamic will depend quite heavily on his continued offseason development.

At the very least, we learned what confidence and pace can do as a partner for Johnny Gaudreau.

Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson

Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson have been partnered for a good chunk of the last two seasons. If we go by their draft profiles, a magnificent and deceptive puck handler with highly creative playmaking and a powerful rush-shooter, they should make a fantastic pair.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, that hasn’t really been the case. Largely, I don’t think they’ve been given adequate support to become something better (their most common linemates have been Jack Roslovic and Emil Bemstrom). In a brief window alongside Alexander Nylander they did look much better as a combination.

Defensively, they were able to carve out the slot and put up respectable defensive results (6 goals compared to 9 xG) but in primarily sheltered competition.

Offensively, they really struggled to get to high danger areas in volume as a unit. Still, they did technically outscore what they gave up. For two extremely young players, that’s not nothing.

However, it appears that their skillsets may be diverging. Late in the season, Cole Sillinger was combined with Alexandre Texier and Kirill Marchenko and the trio appeared to have at least briefly forged an identity as a forecheck based matchup center.

Sillinger was more than content to create a volume of entries by dumping the puck and that played away from Kent Johnson’s strengths at carrying the puck over the blue line while linking together passing plays (a specific skill which was still evident in the A3Z data with Kent Johnson’s Entries w/ Passing Plays clocking in at 4.74 behind only Gaudreau’s 5.58).

Before his injury, Kent Johnson played briefly in a more offensive role with Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko. There, Voronkov’s playmaking in the neutral zone and along the back wall enabled Kent Johnson to take center-ice in transition and in the offensive zone where he looked at least a little more like his old self.

The sample set is small, but the results are eye popping. There’s a certain bubble in the defensive zone that indicates they may need improvement in holding defensive structure but the lack of volume elsewhere indicates an ability to either exit the zone swiftly, keep the puck in the offensive zone or perhaps both.

My recommendation would be to investigate the tension, or lack of chemistry, between Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson. We could see that Sillinger’s preference for dumped pucks and volume over efficiency clashed with what Kent Johnson was at his best but that isn’t enough to explain the total lack of offense.

Perhaps the late season flashes of rush creation from Sillinger offer encouragement for a better fit next season. Perhaps moving Kent Johnson to his off-wing could help them link better together. Otherwise, I think playing the two away from eachother and in different roles would be the most optimal decision.

An offseason addition that can play off the rush, or even pairing Kent Johnson with Brindley, Laine or Voronkov could pay dividends.

Similarly, Sillinger in a more forecheck and matchup role perhaps featuring Chinakhov, Jenner or Texier, provided he can still handle the matchups, might also be preferable from his perspective.

Voronkov and Marchenko

Both of the newer Russian additions made huge splashes this season. They both have in-demand skillsets and feel, at this point, like they have massive ceilings. Both of them were consistent high performers in terms of actual goal differential come the end of the season.

Voronkov looks like a potentially special modern power forward who made nearly every line he was one look better (prior to the late season injury disaster). Marchenko looks like a nearly perfect secondary scorer provided he continues to grow into his wall-competitive game and minimizes transition turnovers.

The problem with the two is that they dramatically outperformed their xG in terms of defense. Given their heatmaps, it’s unlikely that this performance holds into next season. Still, I wouldn’t write off their dual-threat offensive capacities. Voronkov is a talented netfront finisher and Marchenko picks his shooting spots very well.

If Voronkov can have a stellar offseason and adapt more to the American lifestyle and English language, it could be in the Blue Jackets’ best interest to split the Russian line and move them each into more apt roles.

Most other modern powerforwards, think Valeri Nichuskin, Matthew Tkachuk and Juraj Slafkovsky, are all wings and I think moving Voronkov to that position is the most sound move long term.

Voronkov and Marchenko can certainly combine to create a very powerful beneath the dots offensive game but freeing them up to create offense is likely the preferable option.

Additionally, Voronkov looks like a perfect target-man style neutral zone operator which may make it wise for him to leave the zone in anticipation of a change of possession.

Roster Strengths and Weaknesses

Strength - Werenski and Gaudreau

These two, in peak form, are capable of being top of the lineup difference makers. During a brief window, they both posted some elite performances that showed they certainly have it.

They did so without equivalently talented C-RW and RD partners. Boone Jenner can be a role player that works with Johnny Gaudreau but ideally he’d be the 3rd best forward on the line.

Adam Boqvist and Zach Werenski have some chemistry but Boqvist would need to improve dramatically in neutral zone and in-zone defending in order to truly work well against top competition with Werenski.

These two, even with suboptimal linemates, give the Blue Jackets the capacity to match power-on-power which can free up young players down the line.

Strength - Aggressive Skating Talent

Two players, specifically, Yegor Chinakhov and Adam Fantilli, have shown the potential to be very skilled front foot high paced players. As they improve, they should be aggressive disruptors of opposition’s defensemen on loose pucks whether either in the neutral zone or on retrievals.

I plan to do individual breakdowns of the both soon, but these types of players can require fine tuning. Their aggressive pace can expose the ice behind them. They will, naturally, move much faster than their teammates which reduces connectivity. As such, they’ll both have to learn timing and develop the patience, or some other compensatory skills, to find their teammates after aggressive moves.

Weakness - Pure Insulators

From a roster construction perspective, that means they (the aggressive attackers mentioned above but, but also all young talent especially David Jiricek) could use players who can stall for them, fill in behind their aggressive maneuvers, and deliver them pucks at the correct arc in their speed development/differential window.

The Blue Jackets have some players who can do some of those things. Perhaps Boone Jenner can fill behind. Perhaps Dmitri Voronkov checks a great many of those boxes along with Patrik Laine but their performances are more fragile.

Maybe Kent Johnson or Johnny Gaudreau can deliver pucks but there are a great many question marks at the moment. Adam Fantilli loved using Alexandre Texier for his wall-battle delays but he might be an odd man out.

Weakness - Defensive Talent

Zach Werenski is great. So too, in different ways, is Damon Severson. Neither should be confused for top-flight penalty killers or defensive defensemen. As a result, the Blue Jackets have added Erik Gudbranson and Ivan Provorov. These veterans are fine on their own but their defense comes with significant tradeoffs which I’ll get to next.

Boone Jenner is also more of the same. He’s more of a workman forechecker and disruptor than he is a disciplined and supportive defensive presence. Sean Kuraly is more of the same, especially in regards to he and Gudbranson’s relative instability with moving pucks out of the defensive zone.

Weakness - Possessional Security

Perhaps outside of legitimately talented defensive players the best way for the Blue Jackets to become better defensively is in safely and reliably transitioning the puck up-ice.

To an extent, the north-focused, neutral-zone stretching system played a role. Eagerly and quickly moving up ice is a legitimate way to increase offense generated but the Blue Jackets’ deficiency at “puck management” exposed them to quite a lot of dangerous chances against.

Kent Johnson and Johnny Gaudreau each have shown they have the talent to do make those plays, though their pace can be questioned at time, and Chinakhov and Fantilli’s dynamic skating should make it easier for them as well.

However, other players like Patrik Laine, Alexandre Texier and Kirill Marchenko really struggle with that type of puck security. For different reasons, they simply don’t read the defense well enough to play immaculate transition games or have the pure reliable handling talent to make up for it.

Similarly, Jenner and Sillinger haven’t made huge impacts with exits or entries.

Jiricek, Bean, Boqvist and Severson also struggled with turnovers (not to mention Gudbranson, Kuraly and Provorov’s tendency to forfeit possession quite dangerously under pressure). Add it all up and there’s a certain deficiency that can be hard to overcome.

An improvement in this possession style should also result in a more totally connected team. The Blue Jackets often failed to link passes with their teammates in a way that continually improved the quality of their possession. Perhaps this is a chicken and egg type situation.

This often meant that the defenses had an easy time reading the flow of play and degrading offensive opportunities. Similarly, it could explain some of the struggles of Gaudreau and Johnson.

Improvements in connection, in making the first available play and in constantly changing the point of the attack will be critical to the Blue Jackets becoming a contender.

Weakness - Winning Pedigree

From coach to veterans, the Blue Jackets do not have many members of the organization that have gone the distance. Sean Kuraly has the most playoff experience, including an excellent run with Boston in 2018-19, but he wasn’t leading the charge. Boone Jenner and Zach Werenski have only found limited high level winning in the NHL but Werenski was a big part of the Calder Cup run under Jared Bednar.

The Blue Jackets simply don’t have confident and assured winning leadership. They need steadying forces who have been there and done that. They were unlucky to lose players like Jakub Voracek and Mikko Koivu. Adding Don Waddell at the very top at least brings a voice of authority but that can’t be the only step.

Weakness - Special Teams

The Blue Jackets have had a terrible powerplay for quite some time. Improvements to the available talent and playstyle may help drive improvements on the powerplay as well. Theoretically, a team with Gaudreau, Werenski and Laine should have the tools to be dangerous.

In reality, it’s stagnant and unthreatening.

The best powerplays in the league are built on sublime talent and years of experience with perfect role fits. The Blue Jackets might not have that until they bring through the next core but inspiring offensive confidence through the powerplay will be critical for an up-and-coming team.

Waddell’s previous team was one of the highest performing teams on the powerplay while playing a style extremely diametrically opposed to building possession. If he can bring some of that knowledge with him to the Blue Jackets, we could be a in a good spot.

The penalty kill has been up and down for some time with the Blue Jackets. Largely, their better defensive defensemen don’t cover ice quite well enough to suppress shots against the best units. Still, perhaps some tweaks to coverages or deploying some more aggressive forwards at the top of the PK shape would work wonders.

Otherwise, solid PK defensemen and/or veterans should be considered highly valuable additions especially if we plan on integrated Jiricek and/or Mateychuk to the roster.

Moving Forward

Don Waddell has got his work cut out for him. We’ve learned quite a bit about the ins-and-outs of a good stretch of Blue Jackets performances. The turn around won’t be immediate but solving the first problem, likely the defense, could start a positive feedback loop. Luckily, it looks like Waddell recognizes the issue and now it’s time to see what he can cook up.