What makes a good partner for a top-minute puck-moving defenseman?
Looking for Zach Werenski partners from data gleaned from successful D pairs featuring high TOI defensemen
Starting at the Start
After acquiring Ivan Provorov, the Columbus Blue Jackets have been rumored to be continuing their search for improvements in the D corps. The logical place to look to add (Considering Werenski, Provorov and Gudbranson are all already veterans) is at the top-pair next to Zach Werenski.
Since Seth Jones was traded during the 2021 NHL Draft, Zach Werenski has established himself as a top defenseman and has done so without much support. His numbers under-the-hood haven’t taken a particular dip despite losing a quality partner. (Side note, unfortunately The All Three Zones project didn’t track retrievals and exits in the same detail in 2020-2021, the last year of Seth Jones in Columbus, so the data is bracketed here a year before his departure.)
Zack Werenski is a rover. He’s a one-man breakout. He plays an astronomical number of minutes. He isn’t necessarily a top-tier in-zone or rush defender. Believe it or not, these attributes are shared with some of the top defenseman in the NHL.
The Top Defensemen
I am going to use Time-on-ice per game played (TOI/GP) as a quick proxy for the top defensemen in the NHL. This doesn’t necessarily provide us with a perfect picture of their total quality but it does tell us that at least a coach trusts them to be on the ice and impacting a game in high-volume minutes.
From NHL.com’s stats page, the following are the highest-minute defensemen in the NHL in terms of TOI/GP from the last two seasons combined (21/22 & 22/23). I am using these two years because that is the time since Seth Jones’ departure but also because it gives us a bit more of a robust data set.
Drew Doughty - 26:04
Cale Makar - 25:59
Thomas Chabot - 25:32
Quinn Hughes 25:28
Roman Josi 25:23
Seth Jones 25:22
Kris Letang 25:22
Zach Werenski 25:20
Devon Toews - 25:14
Miro Heiskanen 25:12
Rasmus Dahlin 24:54
This gives us a good picture of the cohort of peers for Zach Werenski. If we look a little deeper at stylistic fits, we can find an even more specific group to compare CBJ#8 to.
This is an extremely noisy graph. If we allow ourselves to focus a bit, we can see that, even among this very high-minute cohort, another micro-cohort establishes itself.
Zach Werenski, Quinn Hughes, Kris Letang, Drew Doughty, Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin all distinguish themselves from the pack in terms of generating Exits w/ Possession per 60 while doing the hard work of retrieving the puck in the D zone often.
Seth Jones, Thomas Chabot fall away because their exits w/ possession aren’t quite up to par. Roman Josi and Devon Toews lag behind in terms of retrieval volume. Miro Heiskanen could be included here but I’m omitting him because his numbers are a shade below the rest and he is also a supremely talented rush defender and as such might not have the same partner constraints.
Now, we have a style and minute cohort to get even more specific data.
Breaking Down Their Partners
Based on data I have acquired from naturalstattrick.com, if we sort by defense-pairs since 2021-22 who have played at least 200 5-on-5 minutes together, we get 348 discrete pairs. If we sort down those pairs to those containing only the aforementioned top-minute defensemen we are left with 38. If we further pare that down to the style-and-minute cohort, we are left with 20 D pairs. All data is from 5-on-5.
Here, I’ve color coded the table for a bit more readability. The total Time-on-Ice of a pair is graded by depth of green and the relative (to this cohort) CF% and GF% of a pair at 5-on-5 is on a color scale of red(the lowest) to green (the highest).
These numbers are, for the most part, all very good for D-pairs. Only 5 of these pairs controlled fewer shots than their opposition and a majority scored more goals. Zach Werenski and his partners struggled and therein may lie some of the problem.
Identifying Trends in Data
A couple of patterns instantly leap out to me.
The first, that only the pairs of Dahlin-Power, Dahlin-Samuelsson, Dahlin-Bryson and Werenski-Bean share handedness. While Buffalo does have a very fluid D system and side-switching is very common, Dahlin was the defenseman who most often switched to the opposite side when paired with Samuelsson (at least judging by their shot chart from HockeyViz.com).
The second, the highest performing D pairs combine an already high-minute puck mover with a recent very high draft pick defenseman.
Cale Makar and Bowen Byram, when paired together, had their team score 73.68% of the goals when they were on the ice. Makar was drafted in 2017 and Byram was drafted with the #4 pick in 2019. Rasmus Dahlin, drafted #1 in 2018, and Owen Power, drafted #1 2021, in controlled 73.91% of the on-ice goals at 5-on-5. It’s hard to fathom the advantages that these pairs created for their teams.
The third partner pattern that leaps out to me is the high-minutes shared cohort. Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson, Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin, Cale Makar and Devon Toews, Quinn Hughes and Luke Schenn and Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Sameulsson all played a large number of minutes together and all posted >50GF%.
Each of these respective-teams’ coaches obviously saw some reason to play these players together. Now, we can look a little deeper using microstats from AllThreeZones.com to try to understand what exactly those coaches were seeing.
Forgive me for the noise on this one. Generally, the partner of the high-minute puck-mover was either the most aggressive or most effective defenseman on their team at killing plays at the blue-line. Luke Schenn and Mattias Samuelsson have very high Entry Denial% whereas Mikey Anderson has an incredibly low Carry Against%. All of these statistical measures suggest very active and engaged neutral zone and rush defensemen. Anecdotally, Devon Toews certainly qualifies in this regard.
It’s worth noting that this data is from the 2021-22 season where blue-line defense was more closely tracked. Brian Dumoulin appears to be falling victim to aging but was a very strong partner for Kris Letang in the years around Pittsburgh’s cup. It’s likely he was the blueprint for some of the deals for these complementary defensemen that followed.
All in Relation to Cap-Hit
Brian Dumoulin signed a 6 year by $4.1 million AAV contract in 2017. Devon Toews signed a 4 year x $4.1 million AAV contract in 2020. Mattias Samuelsson signed a 7 year x $4.29 million AAV contract in 2022 and Mikey Anderson signed an 8 year $4.13 million AAV contract this season in 2023.
Luke Schenn breaks the mold but has remodeled his game and found success pairing with recent high-performers like Viktor Hedman, Quinn Hughes and Morgan Reilly. Across the 4 seasons that he played partner to those defensemen, he earned between $700,000 and $850,000 AAV per year.
Of the other partners, the highest performing were Owen Power and Bowen Byram who were both on ELC deals.
It almost goes without saying but in a hard-cap world, getting a low-cost partner for a high-minute, high-performing high-cap hit defenseman is a must. It appears that the sweet spot is just above $4 million for a long term fit already on your team.
Looking at Acquisition Methods
Brian Dumoulin, Mattias Samuelsson and Mikey Anderson were all drafted by the team that eventually deployed them in this complementary defense focused role.
Bowen Byram and Owen Power were also drafted by the team that deployed them in a high-performance pairing but I wouldn’t necessarily call their role complementary. Those were powerful pairs with multi-dimensional responsibilities.
Devon Toews was acquired in an astute trade by Colorado’s Joe Sakic where he was stuck behind other defenseman on the New York Islanders. Luke Schenn was signed as a low-risk bet in Free Agency.
Surveying the Field
Unless Werenski is comfortable playing on his off-side, in the way that Dahlin did to accommodate Samuelsson, we have established that we are looking for a right-handed defenseman. This defenseman should be proficient in playing up ice, killing plays at the blue-line and an otherwise competent rush defenseman.
The most common ways that teams with these defensemen have acquired them is through the draft. Jarmo Kekalainen has a well documented preference for drafting and developing but has certainly showed throughout his time as General Manager that he isn’t afraid to trade for players he wants.
Are there players that currently fit the bill? Yes, but very few are perfect fits.
The criteria is as-follows:
Right Handed
Solid Entry-Defense
Sub $5 million Cap-Hit
Too Valuable to Their Team
Brett Pesce
If there was a perfect fit, it’s Brett Pesce. Unfortunately, the Carolina Hurricanes know what they have. Pesce has formed an excellent matchup pair with Brady Skjei and still has one year left on his contract. If CBJ have something that can pry him loose he would form a quite formidable partner and could help Zach Werenski firmly plant his flag as a Top 10 defenseman in the NHL.
Pesce’s contract remains within reason for CBJ, with only 1 year left on a $4.025 million cap hit, but his acquisition cost, if there is one, likely prices him out of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Jared Spurgeon
Jared Spurgeon would be the ultimate power-partner for Zach Werenski. Not only is he an excellent entry-defender but he’s also dynamic across the ice and especially so with his playmaking. Unfortunately, he’s Minnesota’s Captain and though they are in an extreme cap-crunch as the result of the Suter and Parise buyouts it’s hard to envision a world where Minnesota would relinquish a franchise-icon.
Evan Bouchard
Evan Bouchard had an absolute coming out party with the Edmonton Oilers this season and that only continued in the playoffs. Not only is he dynamic offensively but he’s also a capable rush-defenseman who forces dump-ins and breaks up plays early.
There’s an angle for CBJ to acquire him because of Edmonton’s very rigid cap picture but I wouldn’t count on it.
Best Fits
Sean Durzi
Sean Durzi spent this past season playing on his off-side in the blue-line defending role that LA reserves for their left-side defenseman. He’s 24 years old and this was only his second season in the NHL.
His Carry Against% wasn’t stellar, but above average, and his Denial% was in line with Mikey Anderson’s. Elsewhere, he’s a good complementary playmaker with a penchant to attack dangerous areas. This should complement Werenski’s offensive skillset very well as he loves to shoot the puck.
Durzi played in high-difficulty minutes on a pair with Matt Roy and posted good defensive numbers otherwise.
Durzi could be available from LA as they have recently signed Vladislav Gavrikov to a 2 year deal and will be seeking to integrate Brandt Clarke and potentially Jordan Spence into their lineup. He has 1 year remaining on his contract before he is an arbitration eligible RFA.
Luke Schenn
Luke Schenn is currently set to be an UFA after a solid year with the Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs. He’s simple and has proven he can be exactly a complementary defenseman across his time next to Viktor Hedman, Quinn Hughes and Morgan Reilly.
In my opinion, it’s doubtful that he will make it to Free Agency as Toronto will look to retain someone who performed well in the playoffs. If he does, CBJ would be smart to give him a contract.
Too Expensive***
Damon Severson
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been rumored to have inquired about acquiring Damon Severson’s FA rights. They would be smart to do so. While he played in easy minutes in a third-pair role (still averaging 19:57 TOI/GP) in 2022-23 after the acquisition of John Marino, that doesn't tell the whole story of his time in New Jersey.
Even in this situation, he showed out pretty well. Performing as a dynamic offensive playmaker, a pretty-good-albeit-risky puck mover who still did well in terms of defending the blue-line.
His previous season with the Devils, where he performed in a different role alongside Ryan Graves, he was even better in terms of defending the blue-line but also in terms of puck-retrieving and zone-exiting.
Importantly, he put up these results in difficult minutes. He was also an all-situations defenseman in 2021-22 (averaging 23:36 TOI/GP)and performed well on the penalty-kill.
EvolvingHockey has Damon Severson’s next contract projected at $6.17 million AAV for 6 years. He’ll be 29 years old at the start of next season and could be victim to aging curves after this year. His contract is greater than the amount of a normal high-minute puck-moving partner, and he’s one of the best defenseman on the UFA market so that number could be higher in a bidding-war, but there might not be a better total player available this offseason.
Matt Dumba
Matt Dumba is an impending Unrestricted Free Agent this offseason. He tore his pectoral muscle in the middle of a good season but hasn’t quite been the same defenseman since. Still, he averaged 21:17 TOI/GP so he can certainly handle the rigors of top-pair deployment.
He has, however, put up a good record of defending the rush despite not being the most aggressive blue-line defender. We haven’t seen him perform in that style in the past so there is a measure of risk but he has an otherwise stable platform to build in those skills.
Matt Dumba performed around team average in terms of suppressing shots and generating offense and performed well on the PK as well.
He put up those results while averaging 21 minutes per night against top competition. There are no doubts he should be able to, at minimum, pull his weight next to Zach Werenski which represents a significant boost compared to Werenski’s previous partners.
Matt Dumba is projected to earn $6.2 million per year for 6 years according to EvolvingHockey’s contract projections. That contract would take him through his age 35 season and, if Dumoulin is a comparable at age 31, that contract could be at risk for regressing quite quickly.
Too Sheltered
Unfortunately, the Columbus Blue Jackets have a pretty rigid roster situation with Erik Gudbranson occupying a 3rd pair role. Jarmo Kekalainen loved what he added to the room and it’s hard to envision him elsewhere. Signing Gudbranson remains an interesting choice and one that also means CBJ don’t have the roster space for defensemen lower in the lineup. Any player acquired to play the right-side has to be a Top 4 defenseman or they’re getting scratched quite often.
Radko Gudas
Radko Gudas really had a coming out party in this seasons Stanley Cup Playoffs. He has made a name for himself not only as an enforcer, but also as an aggressive entry-defender on a pair with Josh Mahura.
Here we can see that while Gudas was incredibly aggressive and effective at killing plays early and remained difficult to get by in the neutral zone. His shooting heavy profile doesn’t necessarily scream Zach Werenski complement, but he at the very least doesn’t have the same possession wasting habits that we have seen from Andrew Peeke in the past.
Unfortunately, Gudas wasn’t matched up against top-competition and as such may not have been facing dynamic neutral zone forwards. It’s still a plus that he could kill plays and his physicality remains a weapon that could help Zach Werenski, but it would be a risk to sign this player as a partner considering his age and sheltered minutes.
This risk could be mitigated if Gudbranson wasn’t on the roster and we could allow the veteran Czech defenseman to slide down the roster if he couldn’t perform in high minutes.
Additionally, I am sure Florida will seek to resign a player that seems to be having a late career renaissance and is playing a good role on a very competitive team. He’s not likely to get a large raise and, while their cap picture isn’t fantastic, they certainly have room for him.
Zach Whitecloud
Zach Whitecloud too is having a coming out party in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He has formed a dynamic and formidable third-par with Nic Hague.
There isn’t much to complain about for Zach Whitecloud here. He is a versatile defensive zone player. Unfortunately, as is a theme for this section, he did it in sheltered minutes.
Zach Whitecloud is one of the few defensemen on Vegas that has a long-term contract. He is locked up at $2.75 million for the next 5 years and as such is likely to remain a Golden Knight long term.
Conor Timmins
Connor Timmins is an interesting case. He has played very few NHL games across his career up to this point. He was drafted by the Colorado Avalanche in the first round in 2017 and is a right-shot defenseman that split time with Arizona and Toronto. He slid down the depth chart in Toronto, especially after the trade deadline, but put up some sterling results when paired with TJ Brodie.
Timmins does not have enough tracked games to have a full player-card on AllThreeZones.com. We can see here that he was an excellent blue-line defender in a limited sample size.
Conor Timmins put up some absolutely phenomenal shot suppression and entry-denial numbers. But he did it, and I bet you can guess at this point, against sheltered competition.
Timmins would still be a worthwhile acquisition from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Especially as someone who could play as a 7D. He isn’t, however, a reliable choice for a Zach Werenski partner at this stage.
Johnathan Kovacevic
Kovacevic is a 25 year-old defenseman who broke out with the Montreal Canadiens this year, averaging 17 minutes TOI/GP, after not finding a spot with Winnipeg, who drafted him in 2017.
Johnathan Kovacevic put up pretty good blue-line defense numbers and very excellent retreival numbers. There isn’t much to speak of in terms of the rest of his game but he certainly has an important area locked down. If CBJ want him to be a partner with Zach Werenski, he’ll need to repeat this performance in significantly more minutes and against harder competition.
Kovacevic isn’t as sheltered as a few of the defenseman I have just covered and he shows a diverse profile in the defensive zone. While being paired with Zach Werenski would require a step from him, and that is asking a lot of a 25 year old rookie, he could serve as a risky upgrade to a player like Adam Boqvist or Andrew Peeke. Here, the Blue Jackets could take him in place of one of those two if David Jiricek isn’t ready or he could form a more sheltered pair with Ivan Provorov.
The In-house Solution
David Jiricek is a recent #6 draft pick from the Columbus Blue Jackets. He recently had the highest producing D+1 season of any defenseman ever at the AHL level (there aren’t many in the dataset). Jiricek posted some ridiculous performances at the most recent World Juniors.
He looks like a dominant entry preventer with good retrievals and transition.
His projection to the NHL isn’t guaranteed. His skating lags behind Power and Byram who have beautiful edges and are powerful skaters. While Jiricek’s skating projects to be good he still has to add lower-body strength to fully round out his form.
There’s no guarantee that he can do that as ACL reconstruction surgery can sap a lot of explosiveness, stability and, therefore, power out of your legs. He had a late-season injury that kept him off of Team Czechia at the World Championships which could, in theory, prevent him from having the offseason gains that may be necessary for heavy minutes at the next level.
Some of the aforementioned high-performing pairs contained defensemen that fit this picture in Owen Power and Bowen Byram. Those defensemen performed well at the NHL level in their D+2 and D+3 seasons, though Byram had an excellent Stanley Cup Playoffs in his D+2, so Jiricek could be the partner on the next explosive-pairing.
Ending at The End
Jarmo Kekalainen is certainly surveying his options to get CBJ into the playoffs this coming season. The acquisition of Ivan Provorov is only the start.
If Jarmo wants to mimic some of the recently successful teams, especially LA and Colorado (who I’ve already argued should be blueprints for the CBJ D corps),he should be looking for right-handed, aggressive blue-line-protecting defensemen who costs around $4 million against the cap.
Unfortunately there are very few of that specific defenceman available this offseason. Kekalainen can potentially leverage a higher-cap-hit to get a player like Matt Dumba or, preferably, Damon Severson but the best fit remains Sean Durzi who could be getting crunched for minutes in LA’s d-corps with Gavrikov signed.
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NICE call on Severson. This team is going to have such a different look next season.