The Kent Johnson Scratch Doesn't Make Any Sense

I’m sure I’m not alone in this feeling but the recent scratch of Kent Johnson left me bewildered. There’s been an outflow of media support and anecdotes around this story, so I’ll build on what we’ve seen so far in the public.

Before we get into that, let me be clear here, this has been a disappointing season for the young forward. He has not been as good as he was last year even if we factor the “shooting percentages” of it all into account. There are specific game sequences, like puck-carrying in the neutral zone, that simply looked markedly worse even early this season than they did last year. That’s frustrating all around.

That said, this is still a young player with very clear skills and a very distinct, and good, approach to playing the game. He has shown marked improvement this year in the areas of weakness, like battling or “getting his nose in it”, that the team has chosen to focus on.

The Bowness Justification

The healthy scratch of Kent Johnson was a complete surprise. When asked, Bowness suggested that he did it because the player wasn’t up to his standards in the 12 games he has observed. He also suggested a desire to get more offense out of the Monahan line.

“(Sean) Monahan’s line needs a little bit more offense,” Bowness said before Saturday’s game. “I had a good meeting with K.J. He has to understand … listen, I know he scored those goals (24). I was looking at them (via video on Friday) and I said (to Johnson), ‘In fairness, in the 12 games I’ve been here, I haven’t seen that. I need to see that.’ I showed him a couple of other things he has to improve on. You know what, he’s a big part of the future of this team.”

Not seeing what he did when Kent Johnson was scoring in the back half of last season is a fair criticism though not one that is easily come by. Kent Johnson acknowledges as much in a recent interview with Mark Scheig.

“I think I have a pretty good understanding of my game,” Johnson said. “I definitely have at times watched some video. But at the same time, I know some things that are going on, some things in my game that I didn’t do as much at times this year and there’s different reasons and stuff. I think just understand your game and what makes you good and the trends and all that stuff.”

Kent Johnson is a confident player with a great head on his shoulders as much as his head coaches seem to disagree. What I’d like to focus on here is “some things in my game that I didn’t do as much at times this year and there’s different reasons and stuff”. He is, unequivocally, correct and the role of the coach is incredibly important here.

Dean Evason wanted the team to focus on “North” hockey this year. He built systems aligned to this end and bent the team in that image. Kent Johnson succeeded in that system last season, especially as an advanced wing in the neutral zone but also served as a sort of “off speed” pitch in the stable. That’s been discouraged this season.

I don’t want to focus on this specific part here because that’s a long and very detailed conversation about systems differences and impact on players. Kent Johnson seems aware, the head coaches do not, and we can only hope the explicit mention of more offense frees him up to take some chances.

What I do want to focus on is the explicit reasoning provided by Bowness: he and his line need more offense.

This one is a bit puzzling. We’ll look at the sample of games starting with Bowness’ hiring and not including the most recent game against the New York Islanders. It had little to do with the decision to scratch Kent Johnson.

Let’s start with goal differential. Kent Johnson was on the ice for 6 goals for and 3 against, at 5v5 in that time frame. Monahan with the marginally different 7 GF:3GA. This is genuinely good but altogether not special in the time frame. Adam Fantilli was on the ice for 7 GF and 3GA. Pretty much the same, slightly more offense. The offense was mostly powered by Charlie Coyle who’s line went 11 GF and 5 GA. He’s been a monster lately and really powered a lot of the winning streak.

From a base scoring perspective, the lines aren’t particularly different.

From a deployment perspective, they’re more similar than you think as well. Adam Fantilli started in the offensive zone 59.25% of the time whereas Kent Johnson 63.27% of the time. Their shift start distribution, between offensive zone, neutral zone, defensive zone and “on the fly” is fairly even.

From an individual scoring perspective, Kent Johnson ranks 5th on the team in points scored at 5v5 in that span with 4 points. Behind: Coyle with 10, Werenski with 9, Marchment wiht 6, Jenner with 5 and tied with Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger and Damon Severson.

There’s more to this conversation here too, especially if we take time-on-ice into account. In that time-frame, Adam Fantilli is the most deployed forward at 5v5 with 15:25 per game. Kent Johnson ranks 9th with 11:55 per game.

These facts combine to make Kent Johnson the fourth best rate scoring forward on the roster under Bowness. Better than Marchenko, Sillinger, Fantilli and Monahan.

The best method I have of looking at “underlying” offensive contributions does not have Kent Johnson as one of the worst offensive producers on the team under Bowness. If you factor out net-front looks, he Marhcenko and Olivier have been the best. If you leave them in, he’s still around the same level as Marchenko but behind Voronkov, Coyle and Jenner.

Given the above justifications, about needing more offense, I have to wonder why a Kent Johnson scratch is the first lever to be pulled here.

The Werenski-Severson Effect

If you read all my work up to now you’ll probably understand that points and direct contributions aren’t the single best way to evaluate a player.

Apologies for some of the vizualizations here, I don’t have a way to filter out the last game against NYI and instead will be including the entirety of the season under Bowness.

The lines are created by using proxies for the common versions of said lines. Fantilli played with Sillinger and Heinen at parts when either Marchment or Marchenko were out, so it’s just him on top. Coyle and Olivier rotated Sillinger, Voronkov and Heinen, Johnson and Monahan rotated Voronkov and Jenner on their left wing.

All said, it’s pretty clear which line was struggling and which ones werent. Adam Fantilli, getting the most minutes, had the worst underlying results.

The “middle six” then had frankly fantastic on-ice numbers over the Bowness stretch. If the theory is that there hasn’t been enough “offense” it’s not an easy one to understand.

You might notice, though, that those lines featured proportionally more time with Zach Werenski and Damon Severson. Coyle-Olivier received 50% of their TOI with Werenski. Monahan-Johnson received 45% of their time with Werenski and Fantilli only 39%. Not drastic differences, but enough that it could matter.

Apologies for the size, you’ll have to zoom around a bit. The above chart is the line performance both with and without Werenski. Big picture conclusions: Werenski-Severson is dominant and the rest of the defense is struggling hard.

To look into it more closely, and there are differences in deployment on each side of the Werenski situation, and we’re deep into small sample size territory anyway. We can tread carefully.

Given this information, Monahan-Johnson were the only pair that won their minutes away from Werenski in terms of chance share. Easiest deployment, to be sure, Charlie Coyle is eating very difficult competition and defensive zone starts while still scoring goals, but the Fantilli picture is all the more curious.

With Werenski, Fantilli and his offensive linemates get heavy offensive zone starts and crush them. Away from Werenski, they lose hard.

I think this, ultimately, gets to the meat of the issue. Bowness has handicapped his roster by creating the super pair of Werenski-Severson and is somehow blaming the offensive “struggles” of the low-minute line for it.

The Timing Issue

I think the most frustrating aspect of this whole situation has been timing and choices coming out of the break that then make the sudden scratch feel like whiplash (supposing it isn’t cover for trade related reasons).

Kent Johnson had a hot start under Bowness. The powerplay showed new looks. For whatever reason, his ice time then plummeted (beneath Evason levels) and he was taken off PP1 in favor of Mason Marchment. The unit has been mediocre, so exploring options in search of the best isn’t all that bad.

Going into the break, Bowness expressed an eagerness to use the practice time afforded to his team to create a mini-camp. I have no idea what those practices entailed but you would assume the implementation of systems and adjustments across situations.

Coming out of the break, the Blue Jackets played an excellent game against Boston. Kent Johnson featured on the first powerplay unit!

Their lone powerplay wasn’t great but he was a small part of a chance when Monahan and Voronkov partially changed.

The first period wasn’t pretty. He was on the ice for a particularly spooky sequence where Ivan Provorov and Erik Gudbranson made perplexing plays. Watch him through this shift though. He covers defensive holes, hustles to get back to his responsibility after without conceding danger and makes the play that kills the pressure and digs them out of their zone.

Otherwise, his line was great and he had, arguably, his best set of chances of the season in the third period when the Blue Jackets were trying to tie the game.

In the first period he does classic set-breakout Kent Johnson slow-playing. Drawing two defenders and then playing Monahan to space on the back-wall. He then drives the slot and uses his stick to win the puck and put a chance back on net. It’s not really pretty, and there’s plenty more to be said about Johnson improving the quality of his plays, but it’s good hockey and it’s something he routinely does.

Here he carries the puck into the zone, carves into space to draw the attention of four Bruins and opens a passing lane for a high danger chance to Denton Mateychuk.

And finally, some really high level off-puck play, chemistry with Voronkov and a set of chances that very well could have decided the game. Monahan’s forecheck is great and Kent Johnson reads off of it well, but doesn’t get the puck. Still, follow his motion. He wins inside position on Charlie McAvoy which gives Voronkov the option to toss the puck there. He slams it into Korpisalo’s pad, unfortunate, but it creates a Grade A rebound for Zach Werenski who just can’t finish it.

Not an overwhelming game by any means and certainly no scoring.

Still, this set of chances created was the highest quality contribution of any forward on the Blue Jackets. He did it with 10 minutes of ice-time.

His line didn’t get scored on and dominated chances.

I think this is really the difficult part, it just makes no sense. Bowness rewarded Kent Johnson out of the break with a return to his spot on PP1. He, and his line and the team, played a great game. Then he is immediately scratched. If this was in the cards, of him being scratched regardless of performance, why the promotion? What’s going on?

Wrap Up

I don’t totally disagree with Bowness’ top level conjecture that Kent Johnson hasn’t found the level he did last year. He’s correct, the counter-attack chances and rush facilitation haven’t been at that level, he isn’t shooting 19.5% with a 13.3 on-ice SH%, he’s shooting 6.8% with an 8.45 on-ice SH%. You know who has a 13.86 SH%? Danton Heinen. Better yet, Mason Marchment is rocking a 14.29.

Those skills, and that playstyle, have still been observable in flashes and Kent Johnson has done everything else the coaches have asked. His battle level is better, his offensive zone play is improving, he’s great at getting the puck up-ice and he’s still one of the most responsible F3s on the roster.

To imply he’s been particularly poor since Bowness arrived is confounding, especially in the context of other young players on the team. After his three game honeymoon phase where he scored 3 points in 3 games while averaging 18 minutes a night, Kent Johnson has played a per-game maximum of 13:12.

I hope the above analysis doesn’t come off as “Adam Fantilli should be scratched” but rather was intended to use this player as an example of the false narratives being pushed by Rick Bowness. In my view, the best way to get more out of Kent Johnson is to actually give him some ice-time.

My preferred roster construction still stands:

• Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko

• Marchment - Fantilli - Johnson

• Sillinger - Coyle - Olivier

Splitting up Werenski and Severson might be necessary considering the performance of the bottom two pairs up to this point, but I don’t see why Marchment couldn’t help channel the “JvR-Fantilli-Johnson” magic that we saw just last season.

Perhaps the significant ice-time alongside Provorov-Mateychuk in these clips can serve as an escape route for current deployment as well.