The Book on Adam Fantilli's Rookie Season
The Book on Adam Fantilli's Rookie Season
Development Roadmap, Cohort and Player Case Studies using Film and Analytics
Adam Fantilli is, to borrow from House of the Dragon (or Fire & Blood for the real sickos), the Prince Who Was Promised. He’s the franchise cornerstone that the Blue Jackets have been waiting for since their inception and the player who will be counted on to create a long-term contender.
The purpose of this analysis will be to determine when we can expect Fantilli to be fully prepared for “team carrying” and how best to put him in that position. As the NHL continues to mature, and even before that, individual players won’t be able to carry a team to the Stanley Cup.
Understanding Fantilli
In order to fully understand Fantilli, we’ll have to look deeper into the microstats and analytics that we have publically available.
The above is a quick hit video preview of Fantilli’s skills and his style of play. Using a players’ first few games on the team as a way of understanding them can be instructive. At this point, they were playing primarily on the instinct they had developed as a prospect.
We can keep that “foundation” in mind as we explore Fantilli’s analytics more deeply.
According to the AllThreeZones microstats, Adam Fantilli was an excellent creator of offense and was very much a shot-pass dual-threat. His Primary Contributions/60 suggest that he very much earned his production at 5v5.
While Fantilli’s shot was his primary creator, or at least primary weapon coming into the NHL, he didn’t necessarily shoot off of High Danger Passes all that much. That he still created so many goals speaks to his natural finishing ability but shows there’s plenty of room for growth as well.
Fantilli created a high volume of controlled zone entries but didn’t necessarily link plays afterward. If he wants to be a prolific creator of rush offense and primary puck carrier he’ll have to develop his capacity to create chances off of zone entries by way of initiating passing plays.
In terms of zone exits and forechecking, Fantilli was fine. Largely, that’s okay. D+1 players don’t have to be complete NHLers. Fantilli possesses many of the habits to be an excellent NHL center he just has to increase the frequency of these events and develop skills and tactics for the more difficult situations.
When we look at his Evolving Hockey RAPM, a regression technique designed to clean his results from his teammate, competition and deployment, he doesn’t look so good.
Largely, this too is okay. His performance isn’t uncommon but his defensive numbers were better than most D+1 players and his offensive numbers far worse. This could have been a result of coaching or that he rarely shared ice with the Blue Jackets’ best defensemen and therefore felt the need to compensate with a more conservative playstyle.
I’ll get more into the comparison analysis later, but here’s a quick example of Stutzle’s and Eichel’s first season RAPM. Among the upcoming cohort, these two match Fantilli’s 5v5 RAPM shape the best. Both had more blue than Fantilli but their raw defensive metrics were much worse.
It feels like a Columbus coaching issue where accountability and defense were preached at the expense of offense. In reality, it’s hard to say.
Fantilli Development Matrix
We know that there are plenty of skills and patterns that Fantilli has started to display at the NHL level. We know that, in order to become the superstar he was drafted to be he’ll need to carve out his own unique methods of impacting on-ice results.
From AllThreeZones, we know that Fantilli is an excellent creator of offense through shooting or passing, needs to improve at finding the high danger areas of the ice, needs to improve at creating plays after entering the zone and probably has some all around defensive improvement.
We also know that Fantilli is a good forechecker and exit pressurer with room to improve but also someone who creates very well after neutral zone turnovers. Each of these tendencies will need to be nurtured and improved as he continues to develop into the league.
I will be utilizing the development matrix developed by Jack Han. It’s a relatively simple idea and one that would pay significant dividends for any of the Blue Jackets’ coaching or development staff.
At least from the public facing angle, the previous season contained many of the bullets that Jack listed as “How to Ruin A Player.” Hopefully, going forward, the Blue Jackets can focus on instead enhancing Fantilli’s strengths and using systems or partners to mitigate weaknesses.
Apologies for the inconsistencies in video, I only started taking deeper clips in 2024 and only have around a month of footage before Fantilli’s injury. The rest, without volume, is from his first few games at the beginning of the season.
I will also not be including some of high frequency-high success skills from Fantilli. Namely, his excellent, perhaps elite, quick release shooting and devastating lateral and quick touch puck-handling that he used to generate volume transition and offense. He’s got excellent routes and puck support movement in the defensive zone as well.
High Success-Low Frequency
High Ice and Neutral Zone Kills
One of the early standout skills that brought Adam Fantilli early success was his ability to pressure and disrupt opposition possession as they were attempting to exit the zone. This is a highly valuable skillset and one that differentiates players who are just centers and those who control the game.
If Fantilli, and the Blue Jackets, can continue to put him in situations where he can patrol the high-ice and kill exits he can become a dynamic play driver at the forefront of NHL playstyles.
This situation is a collection of Fantilli’s skills. His heavy stick combined with body contact combined with his read of the flow of play. His aggression post-contact and superior athleticism enable him to be the first to the next play in the sequence.
At the same time, he is moving forward and betting on his ability to win pucks. This can be a vulnerable situation that does expose the team to some risk. Do they trust that he wins battles and go toward the next play or do they continue to backcheck assuming it won’t work, thereby leaving him on an island? As he improves, and picks his spots, the trust will be earned and risk will be mitigated. It might be a little tricky for the time being.
From here, the objective for Fantilli should be to lean into his ability to disrupt plays near the opposition blue line. Instead of cheating for offense behind the net, perhaps he retreats above the puck and attacks from a consolidated position to create dangerous turnover opportunities.
Further refining his understanding of game situations will only continue to enhance his capacity to play like a metaphorical neutral zone ambush predator.
Plays Inside Contact
These plays could have perhaps been bundled into the above video but I think the above is somewhat bent towards off-puck movement. Hockey is a very fast and/or interconnected game so on and off puck will always be somewhat linked.
These clips, by my intention at least, show a much more micro-focused ability for Fantilli to understand an opponents posture and utilize his strength at leverage points to generate good results and disarm potential reaction.
Fantilli has a particularly strong stick and knows almost exactly how to remove the opponents stick from the equation and still have first priority.
He’s also excellent in cutting through hands and using his posture to seal opponents from the puck.
In my mind, the above sequence against Edmonton should become a hallmark of Fantilli’s game. His capacity to demonstrate a variety of puck protection techniques against Matthias Ekholm, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should provide excess confidence to do it against anyone in the NHL.
Adam Fantilli has the potential to be a special puck protector and on-puck defensive disruptor if he continues to lean into these exactly body control skills. If he leverages these skills in the offensive zone, he should become a force on the back-wall and the net-front.
High Frequency-Mixed Success
Quick Area Passes
None of these passes seem particularly exciting, and they aren’t really. For the most part, though, they serve as one way in which Fantilli accelerates the pace of play. He moves the puck incredibly quickly which creates space for him to build a head of steam.
What I noticed earlier in the season but couldn’t quite find clip support for was how Adam Fantilli would use these longer stretch area passes to build speed differential. If Fantilli recognized a teammate who he felt could win a race or a battle, he would make that play to space. This was especially common with Alexandre Texier.
This shows that Fantilli has the capacity to work inside his teammates skillsets, which should be encouraging, but that he also finds options and makes judgements rather quickly.
I also noticed this pattern in some of Gavin Brindley’s play. Perhaps this was a technique from Brandon Naurato’s system at the University of Michigan.
In any case, it’s also a point of data for constructing lines around Fantilli’s skillsets. If the Blue Jackets pair Fantilli with players who can win puck races and bump those recoveries back to him, they could have the makings of a pacey line that already fits within Fantilli’s gameview.
Entry Delays
Adam Fantilli was a good user of a variety of entry delay techniques. It’s getting harder to create from these positions as NHL defenses adapt and his deployment of cutbacks and subsequent passes oftentimes leave something to be desired.
Still, this type of rush offense isn’t common among D1 NHL players so his technique “needing refined” is a better state than him not being in the situations to begin with.
Similarly, there’s quite a bit of teammate management, or potentially personnel or neutral zone offense structure, that the Blue Jackets could use to enhance options post-entry.
While Fantilli did, at times, force passes into the middle it’s rare that there were easy open options that he missed. Perhaps the lack of options and forced passes have something to do with the way he was moving through the neutral zone prior to these entries (over carrying or non-elite spatial manipulation) or perhaps it’s something else.
As Fantilli learns to chain his movements, handling moves and passes into more fluid skill blends he’ll be able to attack defenses through these delay plays. I have emphasized attacking because it’s absolutely crucial to utilize that confidence so that you can force defenses to respond to your movement which can lock in speed and spatial differential advantages.
Delay plays, for Adam Fantilli, represent a somewhat high frequency event with flashes of very high level execution that should become a core part of his future offense. He’s been here and done it at the NHL level and now he should be starting the process of sharpening the weapon and wielding it more frequently.
Forced Interior Passing
Now, I’ll show a mixed bag of the various kinds of forced plays from Adam Fantilli. Not all of these plays are the same but I hoped to show some of the weak points before moving into the skills already in his bag that could address some of them.
The primary situation for forced plays is in passing to the slot and especially from the back wall. Fantilli, noticeable mostly in comparison to Kent Johnson, tries to pop passes blind off the back wall into the slot. Though he does complete a few, his completion rate is in these situations is altogether poor.
In other situations, Fantilli technically did complete these passes but the player was oftentimes wronghanded and unable to make a play with the puck. These plays, along with the overeager wall to middle passes, suggest a player who is impatient or somewhat behind in reading the play. He needs to improve his risk threshold as he comes to understand what it takes to beat NHL goaltenders.
Similarly, in entering the zone wide, Fantilli oftentimes missed options to hit the middle of the ice. In the above clips (and along with some of the delay plays), that was often Kent Johnson slipping in dangerous space. Fantilli, after entries or during extended carry sequences, can get a little bit tunnel visioned.
In other words, Fantilli’s high-danger playmaking lacked poise and high level vision. These were characteristics during his draft year and may simply be a part of his game.
In the above micro-pattern, Adam Fantilli leverages his speed-underneath rushing and a variety of high-pace puck-handling moves to get behind the defense and in a position to create danger. He, and his teammates, didn’t continue to move through these dangerous positions but if he continues to generate them reliably he should continue to add layers to these specific moves.
Largely, I would expect the force-it plays to disappear as Fantilli comes to understand their success rate at the NHL level. These worked in college because defenders weren’t reading space as well.
The important part for Fantilli, or any development coach, is determining which skills Fantilli could develop that increase the success rate within this plays or avoid them altogether.
In my observation, many will fade away with repetition and therefore increased situational awareness. The forced passes were oftentimes to Justin Danforth. If Fantilli doesn’t have the processing skills to evaluate the multiple factors of handedness and defense approach positions(Kent Johnson’s mental map, as an example, being a key factor in his success in some of these plays), he’ll have to find ways to overcome this deficiency.
Perhaps he needs to pick up pucks cleaner off the wall while still moving laterally, perhaps he needs to add a step to his acceleration so that he has more space, perhaps both would allow him to scan and mental map more.
Perhaps this was simply a (half)season of adaptation and next season will come confidence and attacking.
The Matrix
High Success, High Frequency
Transition Puck Carrying and Routes
Volume Offense
High-Pace, Loose-Puck Handling
High Success, Frequency-Needs-Improved
Exit Kill
Puck Protection and Body Control
High Danger Shooting
Success-Needs-Improved, High Frequency
Entry Delays
Power-Wide Rush
Area Passes
Neutral Zone Defensive Forward Skating
Interior Passing
Each of these are potential areas of improvement or guideposts for Adam Fantilli. In some cases, such as leaning into his puck protection in order to improve rushed interior passes, the improvements could be compounding.
In other cases, such as high danger shooting, the answer for improvement could be in finding linemates who enable him. Pucks don’t magically find their way to the middle of the ice and finding teamates who can hold onto pucks and link passes can help him with plenty different areas.
Adam Fantilli’s skills paint the picture of a player with puck moving and battle abilities that support a defensive triangle player but also one who shouldn’t be overburdened with responsibility. At his offensive best, he likely moves forward to pressure back-lines and create high-danger downhill attacking sequences after forcing turnovers.
Development Cohort
The primary method of analysis will be developing a cohort of players with similar production and draft pedigree. Adam Fantilli was considered to be a “legitimate first overall talent” and therefore it’s easy to create a reasonable development cohort.
This should give us an overview of the timing of development.
Points are not the end-all for determining a player’s impact but they are a quick and dirty way to group players. If a player is good they will likely have a set of skills that results in goals in the net (and preventing the same).
Many of these “franchise pillar” type players played in the NHL in their Draft+1 season and here are nearly all of them from recent memory.
In terms of Points/Game, Adam Fantilli would grade out on the low-end of true first overall draft picks.
Generational talents like Connor McDavid, Connor Bedard and Auston Matthews stand out at the top. High quality top picks like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel and Nico Hischier round out the next wave.
Adam Fantilli, drafted third overall, compares most evenly with fellow third overall draft picks Tim Stutzle and Alex Galchenyuk and recent draftee Leo Carlsson. He’s notably above superstars Jack Hughes, Leon Draisaitl and fading-star Tyler Seguin.
From this list of points producers with draft pedigree, I have removed the top generational or quasi-generational instant-hits. I have also included some of the lower-producers so that we have some context on some worst-case scenarios.
There is probably some higher-level analysis using some multivariate hand-tracked stats but that’s something I’ll have to save for once I’ve upgraded some data analysis knowledge.
For now, The Cohort:
Adam Fantilli
Aleksander Barkov
Elias Lindholm
Jack Eichel
Jack Hughes
Leo Carlsson
Leon Draisaitl
Nathan MacKinnon
Nico Hischier
Sean Monahan
Tim Stutzle
Tyler Seguin
At the end of the day, we’re ultimately creating a high-skill growth curve and examining the trajectory across multiple metrics. Creating a single growth curve of the most important metrics, via GAR or Gamescore, is something that plenty of public analysts with their own models do on a regular basis.
Largely, these are useful for projecting the performance of a team where individual detail is less important.
My intention is a bit different. In developing this cohort and examining the growth across multiple factors I’d like to spotlight specific areas of focus for our N=1 subject in Adam Fantilli.
If we can examine players who followed similar paths, or with similar skills, we can hope to learn from their development trajectories. Ideally, we avoid pitfalls and steal techniques.
Flattening the oftentimes overwhelming variability of NHL performance into single growth curves is nice but it removes the potential for understanding root-cause. Player improvement isn’t a naturally occurring force, it’s a result of specific and intentional work by players, development staffs and roster constructors.
With a more wide-ranging approach hopefully we can drill down on specifics and, if not find, at least probe-for the driving forces of improvement.
All of the data will display progression from D1 to D7. This is years post-draft and I chose this specific timeframe because it’s the players’ RFA years. This has important cap-implications but, for less important players, codifies the time that an NHL team can nearly-guarantee a player’s performance for their club.
Only Elias Lindholm(D6 to Calgary), Jack Eichel (D7 to Vegas) and Tyler Seguin (D4 to Dallas) moved teams during this window.
Chart Explainer
As with previous DataWrapper graphs, if it’s not working within your browser window (or if you’re on mobile) you may have to click on the chart to open in a new tab.
From there, you can mouse over individual lines (or key entries) and have them highlighted. These graphs will feature plenty of noise so taking your time is necessary.
I have tried to associate each player with a team-like color but so many NHL teams share colors. Hughes and Hischier are on the same team so they, at the very least, share the same not NJD associated color.
This first metric, 5v5 Primary Points/60, was originally intended to strip away some of the noise involved with the NHL’s raw points approach.
Secondary assists are very noisy and not always a repeatable skill. So too are complete point totals where ice-time, games played and even special teams have an effect.
By distilling production down to rates at specifically 5v5 and utilizing only primary points, I hoped to see a more clear progression that was dialed into a player’s “true-skill”.
The reality: still plenty of noise.
No player improved from year to year without ever dropping in their performance. Leon Draisaitl and Jack Hughes came the closest, though Jack’s performance had a much more significant drop-off in this most recent season.
As much as I’d love to annotate injuries, such as the case with both Jacks, Eichel and Hughes, it would be difficult to ascertain whether players were truly injured or whether they were simply playing hurt.
In this specific metric, Adam Fantilli looks quite good. I haven’t included the highest performers in Connor McDavid, Connor Bedard or Auston Matthews, but relative to this cohort he posted the second best season only behind Nico Hischier’s quite obscene rookie year.
The bad, if you can put it that way, is that there isn’t a lot of improvement from D1 to D2 at least in terms of 5v5 primary points/60. In fact, the only players with substantial improvements were Jack Hughes, the worst of the cohort, and Tyler Seguin.
It’s hard to learn too much from this data but perhaps pass-first players are even more susceptible to linemates. In which case, Fantilli’s shoot-first mindset may have made his 5v5 production more durable. Perhaps, as his A3Z data might suggest, he’s a great creator of the important projectable metrics (primary shot contributions).
Fantilli might not be a dramatically different player next season but he’ll put in investments at 5v5 that will likely pay off in D3 and D4, should things all go to plan. If Fantilli does dramatically improve as a 5v5 player, perhaps he’ll continue to ride the wave as an elite example of this cohort.
In this case, I have changed the metric from primary points/60 to total points per game. Perhaps this is a poor-choice that distorts our view of players’ progression but in observing the changes I believe it’s still instructive.
Powerplay production, it seems, may provide a more significant year over year production boost than simply 5v5 performance. From here, we can see that a specific cohort distinguishes itself from the rest of the pack.
The significant powerplay producers: Leon Draisaitl, Jack Hughes, Tim Stutzle, Nathan MacKinnon, Tyler Seguin and Jack Eichel.
The players who failed to take the next steps on the powerplay are a bit different: Aleksander Barkov, Nico Hischier, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan. Two of those, Barkov and Hischier, look like they may be dominating the Selke-Trophy race for years to come while the other two were Calgary Flames who were up-and-down in performance.
The truly-elite, i.e. competing for Top 10 in the league, players all became significant generators of powerplay points.
If Fantilli wants to join that group, he’ll have to dramatically improve powerplay production. If he doesn’t, he’ll have to be a year-in-year-out Selke Trophy nominee or else the Blue Jackets won’t have the type of 1C that provides year-in-year-out Cup Contendership.
The good news from that perspective is that this cohort saw dramatic growth through D6. With a good coach and a reformed perspective on the powerplay, perhaps the Blue Jackets can become the team they need to be.
I have a fun idea after looking at the Blue Jackets best young players, especially Kent Johnson and David Jiricek, but that will wait until after the player reviews are completed.
The next step, after looking at points, is looking at all of the rest of the hockey performance in determining what wins hockey games.
Advanced analytics can only get us so far but RAPM Goal Differential is a great tool at determining whether the player in question won their minutes while still accounting for their likely terrible team.
From this perspective, Adam Fantilli was the worst of the bunch. The other “worst of the bunch” were Jack Hughes and Leon Draisaitl, who took tremendous steps forward.
The difference between those two, Tyler Seguin and Fantilli, however, is that they also posted obscenely low point totals. That might suggest that Fantilli has less “low-hanging fruit” or regression potential.
This cohort gradually improved until D5 where they dropped off a bit, thanks to some perhaps injury related drop-offs from Jack Eichel, Sean Monahan and Tyler Seguin.
For the most part, we can expect Adam Fantilli to become most of the player he will become at D5. By then, he should be a minutes-winner who can drive the top of the lineup.
RAPM Corsi Differential is important to analyze because it’s the best “possession-driving” metric that we have available. From this perspective, some of the aforementioned cohorts emerge once again.
The “large European” cohort consisting of Leo Carlsson, Leon Draisaitl, Aleksander Barkov and Nico Hischier all came into the league as quality drivers of possession.
The rest saw dramatic improvements in their capacity to drive play. Fantilli is among the worst but better again than Jack Hughes, Tyler Seguin, Jack Eichel and Tim Stutzle in their respective seasons.
Jack Hughes, Tyler Seguin and Nathan MacKinnon became the best play-drivers of the group in their D2 and reached uncommon heights among the cohort. They were also, in their rookie seasons, among the worst performers until the Monahan and Eichel D7 falloff.
In each of the above cases, if we remember the above single player RAPM charts, the above players were pitiful defensively, allowing far too many shot attempts against.
In Fantilli’s case, his shot attempt suppression was better than his shot attempt creation. Whether one is easier to improve in D2 than the other could determine whether he can take the leap that each of those three took. If defensive growth is easy to come by and offensive more difficult, Fantilli’s growth could be a little slower.
Specific Player Case Studies
There are two different important aspects. From an Adam Fantilli perspective, it’s about on-ice improvement. From a Blue Jacket perspective, it’s about finding him linemates that bring out the best in him.
These are both related and the first step involves finding players who were like him and what factors played into their eventual breakouts. For these purposes, and because of access to information and data, I’ll use Tim Stutzle and Nathan MacKinnon as the players for comparison.
Perhaps, with more information or work we could include Jack Hughes or Jack Eichel as additional examples.
While Corey Sznajder was not tracking data for MacKinnon’s rookie year, we do have good quality data for Tim Stutzle.
Stutzle was a worse in-zone playmaker (and overall Shot and Chance Contributor) and entered the zone with control less frequently but was much better at linking those plays into overall offense. Fantilli was a much better forechecker.
Total Shot Contributions (specifically including Shot Assists) may be more predictive of future offense than primary points or any other stat. Whether this holds between seasons and over the course of a career, I can’t really say. From that perspective, Fantilli is more likely to produce well at 5v5 than Tim Stutzle was.
What’s most interesting is the difference between volume/forechecking data and quality between the two players. It appears that Fantilli carried a heavier burden whereas Stutzle was put in better positions on the whole. Which is a better position for long-term development?
The first, and perhaps most important, factor for Adam Fantilli’s ascension going forward is finding a quality powerplay and getting the Blue Jackets best players producing with the man advantage again.
At the end of the day, MacKinnon and Stutzle’s ascension into 90+ point players, which is something that would signal Fantilli has “made-it,” featured very high quality powerplay production.
Linemate Study
Determining quality linemates for Fantilli isn’t super easy at first blush. In taking some stylistic comparisons from the above cohort and combining it with some other publicly shared knowledge, we can craft at least a first pass.
For Fantilli’s first season, his most common linemates were Ivan Provorov, Jake Bean, Justin Danforth, Johnny Gaudreau and Erik Gudbranson. While Johnny Gaudreau is certainly good the rest would never be confused for top-end linemates.
MacKinnon’s rookie year looks quite similar from a performance relative to xG perspective. MacKinnon’s most common linemates featured talented players in Erik Johnson and Gabe Landeskog with occasional features from Ryan O’Reilly and Tyson Barrie.
Stutzle’s first season, like MacKinnon’s, featured higher quality middle offense. He had linemates like Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot. He also shared icetime with Erik Gudbranson.
Neither MacKinnon nor Stutzle had a full complement of very good linemates in these years but Batherson/Chabot and Landeskog/Johnson were better than the most common Provorov/Danforth.
The difference between MacKinnon and Stutzle/Fantilli is that Colorado dramatically outperformed their xGA. In both the younger kids’ case, they gave up more goals than expected. Is that a goaltending, luck or defensive systems issue? It would take plenty deeper analysis to determine that specific root cause.
In MacKinnon’s breakout season (first above 90 points) he added Mikko Rantanen and Nikita Zadorov to the mix and through their partnership dramatically outperformed their xG.
For Stutzle’s breakout season, he added Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux and Jake Sanderson to the mix. They still lost their observed goals share, which could explain why Ottawa still isn’t good, but it was still a dramatic on-ice difference.
Suffice to say, quality linemates are going to be important for Fantilli to become the player he was drafted to be. While good players find ways to work off of eachother I think it’s still important to go further with this specific bit of analysis.
Linemate Effect on Playstyle
In the above “Adam Fantilli is Laying Down The Foundation” breakdown, I looked at exactly how Darryl Belfry detailed the relationship and on-ice symbiosis of Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon.
The fundamental pattern for these players involves Nathan MacKinnon utilizing his unstoppable outside rush prowess to push back defenses and then pull-up in delay which creates a speed differential and moves the puck from the wall to the middle lane of the ice. In comes Mikko Rantanen in the second layer of the attack in speed differential which enhances his top-speed advantage, mitigates his acceleration advantage and gives him the puck with plenty of options.
Rantanen is also incredible at recovering pucks and making plays from the back wall. Something that Colorado’s newfound system requires. This allows Nathan MacKinnon to reload in the high ice knowing that their shot creation will lead to sustained possession.
Jared Bednar and Joe Sakic likely didn’t draw up this exact sequencing at any point but both Rantanen and MacKinnon worked together and adapted their games to create something truly elite. That their powerplay skillsets also mesh so well just added fire to the flames.
For Tim Stutzle, it’s a little more complicated. While there are some rhymes and reasons with Rantanen/MacKinnon and his breakout season with Tkachuk/Giroux, there isn’t a highly developed pattern to learn from.
Tkachuk, like Rantanen, is a very skilled backwall player who is also very difficult to stop at the net-front. He doesn’t quite have the same roundedness or high-level creation as Rantanen but at the very least he isn’t really stepping on Stutzle’s toes. He can recover pucks, own his domain and let Stutzle play his game.
This past season, Tkachuk was moved away from Stutzle and neither has really found the same success. Stutzle was also paired with Claude Giroux, a master faceoff winner and highly cerebral play connector, who perhaps acted as the glue between two talented players.
In this situation there’s a bit of a throughline between Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux and some other high profile lines like Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski and perhaps even Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi (however brief and underutilized). In a certain sense, Rantanen-MacKinnon also check some of the same partnership boxes.
In order to further unpack some of these on-ice situations and developments, I’ll turn once again to Darryl Belfry. Belfry, along with Dmitri Filipovic of the PDOcast, has provided some excellent deep breakdowns of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Matt Barzal, Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabe Vilardi.
In observing the Blue Jackets this past season, it’s clear that Fantilli suffers from some of the same struggles that hold back players like Stutzle and Barzal while also carrying some of the strengths of Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon as well.
In regards to Mat Barzal’s primary puck carrying:
He can be difficult to play with because he has the puck on his stick so much. In the stretches of which he has a possession, he will often have the puck for 7,8,9,10 seconds at a time before he makes a play. The significance of that is that players around him will stop moving.
Players no longer moving while at the blue line was a significant issue for the Blue Jackets this season. Whether that started on the breakouts or was an issue with extended puck carrying, the Blue Jackets struggled to link plays after the blue line primarily because of completely stationary wingers at the offensive blue line.
Adam Fantilli made the issue a bit more difficult as well. While he’s still an incredible athlete, he isn’t the same level of skater as Ehlers, Barzal or MacKinnon. He utilizes projectable crossovers but doesn’t generate separation like the truly elite puck dominant players.
In order for him to improve, he’ll have to manage the timing of his linemates. Perhaps, somewhere the team will improve their neutral zone attack and that will improve Gaudreau and Kent Johnson’s game at the same time.
Fantilli, at the end of the day, may be a difficult player to find linemates for. Unless he improves his skating significantly, his game may be more “high maintenance” than some others. In order for him to access the absolute top-end, he’ll have to be played with excellent players who can play to his level.
The game’s built on timing. They have an ability to move faster than the play. This is where you get kind of bogged down in some of these things. It takes great people around them who have an imagination who understand how to better utilize some of these players.
If we’ve learned anything, it’s perhaps that the Blue Jackets need to find some players who can help Fantilli recover pucks and feed him in the right positions of the ice. They need players who enable Fantilli but who can also continuously build and improve alongside him.
Adam Fantilli has a superstar attitude and a desire, with performance history, to have the puck on his stick in crucial moments (something that fellow draftees Kent Johnson, David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk all also have). He wants to dictate plays and he wants to win games. Nurturing and facilitating this attitude are what separates good teams from Stanley Cup Contenders.
The Blue Jackets’ Role
If the Blue Jackets want Adam Fantilli to be a superstar, they’ll have to find him linemates that can keep up with him, find him in his strengths and cover for his weaknesses. They’ll have to mold a playstyle that works around his potential team carrying skillset.
Last season, the insistence on pushing pace likely worked for Adam Fantilli. He’s still establishing that game and it works within his skillset. I don’t believe it was beneficial for every circumstance, however, and it may have suppressed some of his offensive potential.Soon the Blue Jackets will have to work on getting him in a rhythm that sometimes requires patience and delay.
If Speed is the highest order value for the Blue Jackets, they’ll have to work on the specifics of upgrading possession and it might be hard for Fantilli to find his offspeed game. For 2024-25, that’s likely okay. We know from the Cohort Analysis that it’s unlikely he becomes a true superstar in D2. There’s potential for D3 but he’ll most likely continue to grow, and should be optimized around, in his D5.
The Linemates “Checklist”
We know, from the video analysis, that Adam Fantilli loves to carry the puck and push play. He can, at times, struggle to find the middle after entry. He’ll need players who can play in transition and who can find space and link plays after entries.
He loves to push uncontrolled pucks into the neutral zone and loves to chase pressure on the forecheck. He’ll need players who can win races to loose pucks when going forward but also eagerly fill behind when Fantilli chases a turnover. If that’s not one single player, it can be filled by two.
From an offensive perspective, Fantilli is most dangerous as a shooter. He’ll need players that can feed him pucks in the middle of the ice but who also have the skills to allow him to be a dual-threat.
Fantilli is best in high-ice forecheck situations where he can abandon the net-front to hunt for exit kills. To do this, he’ll need players who can retrieve pucks from the walls but who can also angle on the forecheck.
So far, this just sounds like a bunch of really good players. For now, that’s fine. Once Fantilli grows into his full NHL skillset, he’ll be able to take over more duties and we’ll have a better idea of the specific areas linemates need to fill.
The best lines in the NHL this past season were Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski and Nichuskin-MacKinnon-Rantanen. Each has different archetypes. We can theoretically also include Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk of 21-22 as that was one of the most dominant lines in recent memory.
Similarly, it’s important to recognize how important the D-pairs of Toews-Makar and Heiskanen-Harley were to continued success this past season. For Fantilli to create very high level offense, good defense and puck moving are necessary.
On Roster Solutions
The lowest hanging fruit for linemate upgrades is in the right wing and on defense. Fantilli’s most common right wings were Justin Danforth and Emil Bemstrom. It shouldn’t be too hard to go up from there but the Blue Jackets do not have veteran right wings.
For now, I’m leaving off Johnny Gaudreau. They played some last season and there’s no reason they couldn’t again but it looks like Waddell plans to have them separated to start the season.
Kirill Marchenko
Marchenko is a player who spent 2023-24 learning to facillitate his linemates and learning to win puck battles and retrieve pucks. Each of these, along with his creative below dots playstyle, should make him a good linemate for Adam Fantilli.
Defensive and decision making improvements are a must for long-term success with this duo but the previous season’s trajectory paints an optimistic picture.
Dmitri Voronkov
Voronkov checks a great many of the boxes of Joe Pavelski/Valeri Nichuskin/Matthew Tkachuk. He hasn’t reached their level of stardom but his power game combined with off-wall playmaking and neutral zone facilitation make him a nearly perfect fit.
There are few more Tkachuk like players in the NHL than Voronkov. If Fantilli is Stutzle, Voronkov is an excellent analogue.
Yegor Chinakhov
At first blush, I thought Chinakhov and Fantilli would be terrible fits. Theoretically, they do too many of the same things in transition and both love occupying the center of the ice.
I remain skeptical of their in-zone fit, Chinakhov would need significant playmaking improvements and a change in his medium-danger shot volume scoring approach, but Chinakhov is probably the best player on the roster at chasing down loose pucks in the neutral zone. That said, he isn’t know for his off-wall game. Though he controls pucks and wins races he would have to do so incredibly cleanly or show growth to adapt perfectly.
The potential for an incredibly pacey rush creation duo who both have the capacity to win races, recover pucks and forecheck ferociously must be incredibly alluring.
Kent Johnson
Kent Johnson combined with Adam Fantilli altogether too infrequently. While KJ may not have the pure pace to match Fantilli, and doesn’t necessarily fit in the neutral zone puck retrieval game, he certainly does have plenty of other playmaking qualities that make him a natural fit.
Both come from a similar Michigan background having been coached by Brandon Naurato, and both should be able to architect high level plays in the NHL. Johnson also plays the floating netfront and wall-to-middle passing game that should let Fantilli thrive as a high-ice downhill shooter. Similarly, he’s pretty good at defensive angling and should work well as a forecheck or neutral zone tandem
Johnson would have to improve some of his standstill acceleration and capacity to retrieve pucks but there’s a high ceiling partnership there. I think moving him to his off-wing could be a dynamic way to help him feed Fantilli on the front foot.
Gavin Brindley
We already know Adam Fantilli and Gavin Brindley work together as partners we just don’t know it at the NHL level yet. Brindley is highly pacey and can chase down loose pucks, is incredibly responsible defensively and can fill behind (whether that’s at the NHL level yet is also to be determined). Theoretically, he can wins pucks on the walls and move them quickly. He can match Fantilli’s pace and find passing plays after entries.
If we’re looking for right wings, the only things missing from Brindley being perfect are his size and inexperience.
Jordan Dumais
Dumais is quite far from the NHL and has quite a lot still left to prove. Still, he’s hyper-intelligent and can hit passing lanes with proficiency. If Fantilli becomes that kind of NHL center, Dumais could be developing at the right time and with the right skillset that could make him a decent partner.
It’s hard to see the timing working out, and it would also require quite a lot of growth from Dumais, but never say never.
Boone Jenner
In terms of role assignments and veterancy, Boone Jenner fits. Ideally, this third player is a better play connector and off-wall player. I believe Jenner tends to anchor at the netfront rather than play through motion and he’s better at continuing wall-play than ending it with condition improving moves.
That being said, if Jenner being on Fantilli’s line gets him plenty of reps in all-situations, you probably take it.
Across the NHL Fits
I’ll keep this section brief because, realistically, there are so many good options across the league. Realistically, it would be most important for the Blue Jackets to find the net-front and back wall skillset, the Pavelski-likes, as they have good playmaking options already available.
Here, like in the offseason checklist, it would be fascinating to contruct a line-model that could account for the appropriate overlap of skillsets.
In any case, it’s worth mentioning that the move should be made in consideration of Fantilli’s ultimate breakout timing. They don’t have to happen this coming offseason and can be more accurately judged, along with new developers, between Fantilli’s D3 and D5.
Gabe Vilardi
Probably the player best positioned to make in impact in this arena. He was recently traded to the Winnipeg Jets but did only sign a 2 year contract. He has a poor injury history and it’s not clear that he’ll be a full time NHL player. On the other hand, his skillset is perfect.
If we’re taking the slow-cook likely D5 approach, it’s reasonable to think Vilardi could be available in a little more time.
Sam Reinhart
In a vein of absolutely not available under any circumstance but would be perfect for so many reasons, Samson Reinhart. He’s an excellet netfront player but also a hockey genius.
In a similar vein, you could add players like Andrei Svechnikov, Troy Terry, Seth Jarvis, Brandon Hagel. Each would command acquisition or salary costs well in advance of what the Blue Jackets should pay.
In another, vein, players like Travis Konecny, Martin Necas or Nick Schmaltz could make great partners as well but would require significant sums.
Drake Batherson
A big, right handed netfront playmaker. Not totally the best fit but there are a couple areas where both would help eachother. He would, at least, be an upgrade over certain players like Danforth or Bemstrom.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
A different sort of fit but certainly the type of player who can help Fantilli turn over pucks on exits. Both are excellent exit killers. Bjorkstrand is a refined Chinakhov offensively so there may not be a perfect fit but there would be enough to bet on.
Evan Rodrigues
For plenty of reasons Rodrigues wouldn’t be an otherwise great fit. He isn’t exactly the Pavelski archetype but he is certainly a prolific neutral zone passer. If anyone could deliver the puck to Fantilli when he wants it, it would be Rodrigues.
I can’t say the Florida Panthers would move him but he isn’t immoveable either. For that matter, Eetu Luostarinen would also be excellent.
Kappo Kakko
He hasn’t exactly transitioned to the NHL very well but the idea of Kappo Kakko would certainly be an excellent fit for Adam Fantilli. At the NHL level, Kakko has been a good puck retriviever and generator of zone exits. He has good defensive metrics and could very much be the “fill in behind” style player.
On his off-wing, perhaps that gives him good ability to deliver pucks in space. He has the physique to become dominant on the back wall but hasn’t found a way to impact NHL games offensively.
With continued development and rediscovery of his off-wall game, Kakko could be a great reclamation bet. Hard to see him becoming better than Dmitri Voronkov but he certainly has the pedigree.
Potential Prospect Fits
Luke Evangelista
Solid defensive impacts and an absolutely excellent delay game. He could be the Troy Terry of the future.
Rutger McGroarty
Partners at Michigan. McGroarty fills the wall competitiveness niche but it’s hard to see him a better fit than a Dmitri Voronkov or Kirill Marchenko in the near-term.
Liam Greentree
Excellent small space playmaker whose skillset could certainly work with Fantilli. Both have the sort of physical intelligence to make it work but Greentree still has a way to go.
Logan Stankoven
Stankoven as the heir-apparent to Joe Pavelski would check so many boxes. He’s certainly not getting moved from the Dallas Stars but I guess you never know.
Jack Quinn and Zach Benson
The Buffalo Sabres have a host of desirable prospects. Each of these would carve out a different niche but if, for any reason, either is ever available the Blue Jackets should be around.
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson
The Detroit Red Wings triumvirate of overdrafted defensively responsible players. MBN has plenty of skills, especially as a right-handed player, that could build a working partnership with Adam Fantilli. He projects as exactly the kind of wing that’s actually a good defensive triangle player that Pavelski and Giroux were for their young players.
The Playstyle Checklist
This category is significantly less important than surrounding Fantilli with the appropriate players. That being said, there are a few simple changes that could dramatically improve Fantilli’s trajectory.
First, is bringing aggressive neutral zone killing to the defense. This was a hallmark of Damon Severson’s game in New Jersey, David Jiricek’s as a prospect and in Carolina under Waddell and, perhaps more importantly, Rod Brind’Amour.
Aggressive Neutral Zone Defense
Aggressive neutral zone killing should work very well with Fantilli’s counter-attack skillset. He, and Kent Johnson and Yegor Chinakhov, can be very effective neutral zone defenders or backcheckers in the right circumstances.
If they bring the intensity, and the right defensemen generate the stops, they could utilize Fantilli’s tendency to build speed underneath and create dangerous speed differentials.
The name of the game is denying entries.
Neutral Zone Re-Entry
Additionally, the Blue Jackets should look to take advantage of some of their aggressive exit killing and work to create offense in possession from those situations. In the above clips you can see that the Blue Jackets played primarily to dump the puck in these situations.
Players like Adam Fantilli, and even Kent Johnson, who seek to play behind heels and between checks can create dangerous rush offense from these situations especially if they are encouraged to make puck plays.
This type of re-entry offense was key to the playoff success of the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers in the 2022-23 playoffs. Florida was neutralized, at least somewhat, by Edmonton’s zone stretching tactics, but the basis for a structure of forechecking into offensive creation should suit the Blue Jackets’ roster well.
With defensemen like Zach Werenski, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk, they should be perfectly capable of finding forwards in space near the blue line.
Play Linking
Another area of significant importance for the Blue Jackets is in generating shots with passes. These shots, with even a single pass, dramatically improve shooting outcomes.
The Blue Jackets were one of the worst teams in the league at generating shots off of passes.
In my opinion, the Blue Jackets, as a whole, struggled with sharing the puck and working together to construct passing plays. Whether this is a team system, coaching or even total player skill deficiency could have implications for how they go about improving.
If a coach can get these players to link with eachother, Adam Fantilli should be a huge beneficiary as basically the only above-average NHL player across both metrics (Alexandre Texier being the other across an inconsistent sample).
If we’ve learned anything from Bill Zito’s approach to the Florida Panthers, it should be that playstyle changes should be accompanied by players proficient in the desired changes. Perhaps there any changes can have compounding effects for this current basement team.
Wrap Up
Adam Fantilli had a good Draft+1 season that puts him in great company. He has plenty of excellent projectable habits and has laid a foundation off of which to build an excellent career. While he generated a volume of transition and was a dual-threat offensive generator, something that may be an excellent predictor of future offense, he didn’t necessarily win his minutes or drive play.
Under the hood, this profile isn’t uncommon for players of this cohort. Typically, the players that go on to be superstars make quite large leaps in playdriving in their sophomore seasons.
To take that step, Adam Fantilli will have to refine his rush habits, continue to improve his quick-step acceleration or lean into his potentially elite physical skills to enable puck-poise and create advantages.
His capacity to forecheck was decent but taking it to the next level and leaning into exit killing capacity could make his transition to an elite driver that much quicker.
Since he will, at some point, be relied upon to play major minutes, improving his stamina, fitness and skating efficiency would go a long way.
Improvements in play driving don’t always lead to an improvement in production which has more to do with elite powerplay skills and high quality linemates. Those improvements are more likely from the D3 to D5 seasons.
If the Blue Jackets can find quality teammates that play to his strengths and mitigate weaknesses, primarily by covering for his aggressive pressure chasing tendencies and buy him more puck touches with recoveries and off-wall play, he should be well positioned to be an impact player by his draft year +5.
If the Blue Jackets find a powerplay system with elite players, or if Fantilli finds a way to being an elite feature of the powerplay, he could become a high producer as soon as his D+3, in the mold of Tim Stutzle and Jack Hughes. His shoot-first tendency and lack of the highest level of play-architect style playmaking may make his powerplay production more dependent on linemates.
Next season, the Blue Jackets should look to play Adam Fantilli with Dmitri Voronkov and Kent Johnson (though Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakhov and Boone Jenner could all work) and find as much time with Werenski-Severson as possible. In a few years, his game should work nicely with David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk and Gavin Brindley as well.
Becoming an NHL superstar is only partially dictated by what a player was drafted as. The next, and perhaps harder, part is the continued development during offseasons. The good thing, especially if Brindley and/or Kent Johnson join him there, is that Fantilli is already surrounding himself with high quality talent in the offseason.
“It’s such an opportunistic league where people can score in a lot of awkward situations,” he said. “So, just being better defensively and being as sound as I can, being more explosive, being faster, being a little bit more dynamic to the zone and the neutral zone.”
The good news about the skate cut injury, while scary, is that it isn’t expected to cause any lingering complications for him going forward. He’s determined to train full tilt – as he typically does alongside teammate and fellow Michigan University alumnus Zach Werenski – in Michigan. That will be the plan for July and August.