Thanksgiving Benchmark

We have officially reached the point of the season where we have a good idea of what teams are and where the might finish. The earliest valid sample size of predictive metrics has now been reached and we can chart loose courses based on what we’ve seen.

The plan for these benchmarks will be to take stock of progress, set expectations, examine how teams and metrics change throughout the season, and set storylines to follow for the remainder.

Record and Underlyings

According to a helpful chart created by JFresh using data from Sportlogiq, a private analytics company that work with a great number of NHL teams, the Blue Jackets are about even in terms of their results and performance.

I don’t know exactly what their xGoals models incorporate or how they are made but it can be expected that their models include player and pass tracking and should be able to more accurately describe more dangerous offensive situaions (especially as it relates to special teams).

If the Blue Jackets continue to perform at this level, they should be in line to finished with just under 90 points they are currently on pace for just over 80. That generally correlates with an around “.500” record and puts them about 20th place in the NHL. Room for different effects in either direction but this could mean the Blue Jackets are picking outside of the top ten.

There are plenty of factors that could change going forward so it’s important for us to understand where potential changes could come from. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to the metrics that comprise SportLogiq’s data so we’ll have to utilize HockeyViz components.

HockeyViz is projecting 86.3 Standings Points right now with an error bar that could put us in the playoffs but doesn’t predict us below 80 points unless the underlying performance changes.

Consider that the Blue Jackets haven’t gotten into the meat of their divisional schedule which will likely have a greater effect on final season standings. Currently, NYI, CBJ, PIT and PHI are clustered in a very tight and volatile nucleus that could go in a variety of directions. If PIT, NYR or CBJ shake up their rosters there’s even more movement potential by the time the season ends.

The Blue Jackets have put together a variety of good performances and, especially as of late, have been able to beat good teams in Carolina and the Tampa Bay Lightning with valid underlying performances.

Compared to last year where there was hardly any “black shaded” differences in the 5v5 xG/60 performances this is a marked improvement.

5v5

The vast majority of hockey games is played at 5v5 and it therefore merits the greatest attention.

Offensively, the Blue Jackets are good. There aren’t any particular weaknesses in the offensive profile and in both volume and danger they grade out as above league average. The most dangerous areas of the ice are all well represented.

Defensively, they don’t look quite as good. Although opposing teams are getting to the inner slot their overall volume and lack of close net-front chances mean the Blue Jackets actually grade out as an average defensive team.

As of right now, the Blue Jackets are doing well primarily because they keep the puck out of the defensive zone. There’s a tradeoff happening, at least theoretically, wherein the Blue Jackets are okay with giving up dangerous chances if it means that they also get pucks out or kills plays that means they spend less time overall in the zone.

This colorful chart from EvolvingHockey tells the same story. The Blue Jackets have above average shot rates, slightly below average quality, both shooting and saving pulling in opposite directions and perhaps exaggerating the differences in either direction.

It’s also possible that the Blue Jackets are simply good possessionally and that this defense is underperforming because of mistakes rather than something that is intentional in the system. It would then appear like they are making an intentional tradeoff when in reality they’re just not executing properly. We can look more into that a bit later.

Player Contributions

Because my tracking project has been entirely focused on 5v5 play, I have extra data to provide good insight into the individual performances of the Blue Jackets’ 5v5 play.

This data is through the first 20 games, so does not include the most recent game against Montreal.

In terms of total contributions, Zach Werenski stands out. He is taking the most shots per hour of ice time while also being the time on ice leader. Zach Werenski is the player with the single biggest impact on the Blue Jackets’ 5v5 play up to this point in the season.

The “top line” of Chinakhov-Monahan-Marchenko are the biggest producers but Fantilli, Sillinger and Danforth still bring well rounded rate contributions. Voronkov and Labanc have been incredibly involved at taking shot attempts and not otherwise as good at setting up plays.

Fabbro and Jiricek have been big individual producers in limited minutes and the same could be said of Kent Johnson.

James van Reimsdyk, Mathieu Olivier and Mikael Pyythia all struggled to bring significant volume contributions and they are matched by Johnson, Gudbranson and Harris.

Homeplate area attempts should clean out some of the “very unlikely to score” shots. Though total volume contributions suggest who is involved in having and spending possession, shots closer to the net suggest more danger.

Here, the difference between defensemen and forwards becomes more obvious. Zach Werenski is no longer the single biggest contributor and Sean Monahan’s slot driven nature grades him as the best danger contributor on the team.

Sillinger and Marchenko grade out as some of the best playmakers on the team whereas Chinakhov, Danforth and Voronkov are very involved at shooting from dangerous areas.

Severson and Jiricek distinguish themselves amone the remaining defensemen for their capacity to generate danger.

Though James van Riemsdyk was a very low volume contributor we can see that he is simply more focused on only taking shots when in scoring areas. Fantilli and Kent Johnson, on the other hand, are the opposite. Though they have respectable numbers of shot contributions they have been held to the outside more often than some of the better producers on the team at 5v5.

The idea of this graph is to determine who is contributing to on-ice play as a function of how much they have possession relative to the rest of the team. Do not use this data irresponsibly.

Monahan and Werenski are incredibly involved in driving possession of the team while making the final contributions themselves.

On opposite ends are Cole Sillinger and Ivan Provorov. It’s possible Provorov is a “behind the scenes” driver who gives space to more offensively active partners. It’s also possible he’s being carried. Same, but opposite, goes for Sillinger. Though he’s losing minutes quite drastically, he is at very least still making some individual contributions.

In all likelihood there are significant Quality of Competition effects at play here and we’ll have to use our eyes and understanding of the team to make any deeper conclusions.

This is another chart where I have to urge restraint. If Expected Goals perfectly capture the full breadth of a players’ skills this would represent how likely a player is to regress based on their contributions up to this date.

What raw xGF% does not capture is: shot pressure, finishing, setting (likelihood of a pass to become a goal), quality of competition in the same.

The top right quadrant suggests players whose on-ice goals for/against are backed up by good underlying numbers. If they continue to perform at that level, they should have more or less the same results through the end of the season.

Bottom left suggest players who have poor actual goals results and who we shouldn’t necessarily expect to change without differences in their performance (or deployment).

Top left and bottom right could be interpreted as lucky and unlucky respectively. I strongly suggest looking deeper. It’s possible that certain players do things that mean they can reliably beat the historic averages that comprise xG models. Zach Werenski beat his xGF% by quite a lot last season. Adam Fantilli is also a very good finisher of offense who has set up some basically can’t miss goals.

In the same vein, David Jiricek has made some mistakes that create defensive breakdowns and “easy goals” that wouldn’t be fully captured by expected goals. Perhaps the same could be said of Damon Severson.

On another hand, this graph also doesn’t capture quality of competition effects. Cole Sillinger, and on another hand Kent Johnson in a limited sample, often faced the hardest competition on opposition teams. Naturally, those players would also be better at beating historical averages but would also be more difficult to win possession or quality battles against (say compared to fourth lines that Kuraly, Labanc etc normally face).

Centers

Though it’s an imperfect method, I’ll use the four most commonly deployed Centers as proxies for their lines.

With Sean Monahan on the ice, the Blue Jackets have been incredible. It’s really difficult to overstate just how impactful he has been. His instant chemistry with Kirill Marchenko and either Yegor Chinakhov and Dmitri Voronkov has made every Blue Jackets game feel a bit more winnable.

Under Evason’s optimal deployment, Monahan is the 1C and is given good minutes in which he can be expected to produce offense. That’s not to say he isn’t facing top competition, he most certainly is, but it isn’t the full power-on-power that we’ve seen Boone Jenner and his linemates face under previous head coaches.

Cole Sillinger has been given the thankless duty of matching up with the opposing teams best players in the more difficult situations. He’s done so, largely, without the benefit of stellar teammates. His numbers are not good and certainly reflect his struggle in dealing with these minutes.

Without matchup-quality teammates, though I believe Yegor Chinakhov is in the early stages of becoming one, Sillinger may never get the chance to fully tilt the ice and look like a play driver. Maybe that’s something inherent to his game, I think his on-ice awareness is probably a big part, but more likely it’s not a situation to “succeed”. He gets these minutes and smiles, though, because he is highly team over self oriented and Dean Evason absolutely loves that.

Adam Fantilli, then, gets the third most difficult deployment but often gets a little more offensively oriented teammates at the same time. Evason has been working throgh his linemates trying to find the best mix of chemistry and insulation and it’s still an ongoing process.

Fantilli has struggled mightily under the load he’s being given but there’s some small room for optimism. His production against the middle tier opposition, as opposed to bottom and top, has improved relative to last year. He’s still struggling very much against top players and his play against the very bottom has taken a step back, but there’s room to believe he could carve out respectable impacts if the Blue Jackets find linemates that work.

Sean Kuraly is a 4C finally being deployed like one under Dean Evason. His impacts reflect these “easier” minutes where he’s been winning them handily especially when combined with James van Riemsdyk and Kevin Labanc. No longer is he a pseudo-matchup center who is unequipped to handle that load.

As far as defensemen go, Evason appears to have found a top four that he really likes. Zach Werenski’s ice-time is shooting into the stratosphere and Jake Christiansen has found himself falling out of favor post-Fabbro acquisition.

Largely, Werenski is still getting the most difficult minutes, often matching top compeition alongside the Sillinger line, but he plays so many minutes a game it’s hard to say there’s a single “identity” to that deployment.

When Provorov-Severson are paired together and Dean Evason isn’t mad at their decision making they play solid minutes alongside the Blue Jackets’ top-line. They’re underlying numbers are soaring much in the way they did during the Blue Jackets’ hot-stretch in easier deployment in 2023-24.

Provorov has been a stable presence for the Blue Jackets’ more offensively eager defensemen. Though I didn’t like some of the retrieval and chemistry issues he had with Zach Werenski, he plays his game in a way that makes space for offense.

Finishing and Goaltending

The Blue Jackets are getting plenty more goals than they have “earned” in all situations. There’s reason to believe that this continues with players like Kirill Marchnko, Kent Johnson, Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski and Yegor Chinakhov who can all score from distance but the question will be “to what degree”.

It’s worth mentioning that the Blue Jackets have been facing plenty of backup goaltending so far this season. I can’t say for sure whether it’s above or below average relative to the rest of the NHL but it is possible that’s having an effect on overall finishing rates. Given the Blue Jackets’ place in the standings, I would expect they face more starting goaltenders as the season moves along.

I would expect the finishing to “cool off” but it’s possible it’s offset by improvements to the underlying metrics as well. Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson are all young players who may see improved finishing rates as they grow more comfortable and involved in the offensive schemes.

The Blue Jackets have also had some quite poor goaltending up to this point in the season allowing 11 more goals than expected in all situations.

Though Elvis Merzlikins has been much maligned for his attitude, contract and poor play he’s been the better goaltender so far. He’s allowed 4 Goals Above Expected (37 actual, 33.1 expected) in All Situations but was better in 2023-24 where he only allowed 2.3 Goals Above Expected (128 actual, 125.7).

Daniil Tarasov has been almost ghoulish as of late. He has allowed 7 goals above expected (32 actual, 24.9 expected) and he was otherwise very similar to Elvis last season when he allowed 1 goal above expected (71 actual, 69.7 expected).

It’s possible, then, that the Blue Jackets’ goaltending improves. It’s also possible that the Blue Jackets’ defensive mistakes, the same ones leading to the greater slot chances, are a contributing factor.

Special Teams

Powerplay

According to NHL.com, the Blue Jackets are the 21st most efficient powerplay team in the league finishing their powerplays with a goal on 17.2% of their attempts. They rank 27th in the league with 58 powerplay opportunities and 28th with 10 powerplay goals.

This marks an improvement over last season and one that I believe should continue to improve provided good health. Kent Johnson has been a force in the early season and has participated in only 6 games. More time with consistent deployment and we could see his comfort and confidence rise.

HockeyViz expected goals only include information available from NHL PxP which means you can generally expect NHL Powerplays to outscore their expected goal generation. Danger creation as a result of passing and reduced defensive pressure mean more difficult environments for goaltenders.

The true xGF may be somewhat of a misrepresentation but, at least to my eye test, it accurately reflects the performance of the Blue Jackets. They aren’t creating havoc or getting passes to the most dangerous areas but still have the creativity and finishing to make a difference. The bumper goalscoring of Sean Monahan has not yet materialized but it might not be a key feature if they run the powerplay and net front through left handed players.

Improved movement to and near the goal line, or perhaps simply more time with Kent Johnson, might result in an improved unit and even more goals to come from the Blue Jackets for the rest of the season.

Penalty Kill

According to NHL.com the Blue Jackets are the 10th most efficient Penalty Kill preventing goals on 76.9% of 65 “times shorthanded” for a total of 15 goals against.

Overall, the Blue Jackets are a bottom three penalty drawing team, ranked 30th with 67 penalties drawn, but are in-line with the rest of their metrics ranking 21st with 76 penalties taken. Unless this changes, this weights special teams against the Blue Jackets though their shorthanded goalscoring helps bring the numbers back in line a bit. 2nd in the league with 4 shorthanded goals (shoutout Kent Johnson).

The pre-eminent penalty killers are the unit of Sillinger-Danforth and Provorov-Severson. These players play the most time and are first over the boards.

With Sillinger as the proxy, we can see that this unit is performing particularly well. I would find it quite difficult to adequately represent the differences in the Quality of Competition of the first PK unit versus latter ones.

That said, Sean Monahan has drastically better on-ice metrics in his time on the penalty kill. For now, it’s these minutes (alongside Mikael Pyythia) that have the Blue Jackets performing above NHL average. Whether this is an artifact of limited sample size or the difficulty of being first over the boards remains to be seen.

Sillinger and Danforth were also highly used penalty killers last season where they didn’t put up very good metrics either. Something to follow.

Storylines to Close 2024

Kent Johnson - Adam Fantilli - Cole Sillinger 5v5 Improvements

The Blue Jackets are winning more games largely thanks to the arrival of Sean Monahan, steps taken from the young Russian forwards and a dash of better deployment strategies from Dean Evason.

The downside of that is that these wins aren’t necessarily coming as a result of steps taken forward by their most important young players. Kent Johnson has found plenty of production success on both special teams units but his 5v5 play leaves something to be desired. He’s still highly danger oriented and though his newfound skating has created transition security, he hasn’t found a way to parlay that into better on-ice metrics.

Adam Fantilli is experimenting and broadening his horizons but still hasn’t shaken the impatient and immature decision making of his college days. He’s performing poorly against worse competition but hasn’t had a wing he can create chemistry with. Last season, he shared the ice plenty with Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko and Kent Johnson. This season, it’s been Yegor Chinakhov, Cole Sillinger, James van Riemsdyk and Kevin Labanc.

Cole Sillinger has resumed the full and heavy matchup minutes he relished at the end of last season. His on-ice numbers don’t reflect someone thriving in those difficult roles but he’s very much carving out space for his teammates to succeed. Evaluating these players is difficult, especially when they are so young. The only benefit to giving this deployment to Sillinger is if it helps him grow into it at the NHL level.

Even though we’d love our young players to be driving a resurgence to the middle of the league I believe there’s still merit to the current team construction. The Blue Jackets roster has peaked in its performance and is creating a competitive environment. If the Blue Jackets want to make the playoffs, all it needs is steps forward from these three young players (roster insulation would help but the point remains).

In effect, Fantilli, Johnson and Sillinger will be very aware that their improvement is critical to further success.

Defense Trades?

As far as I know, a trade for David Jiricek could be coming any second. It’s reported that the player and management have different ideas about how his development should be handled and the Blue Jackets might be moving on before the relationship is fully destroyed. Don Waddell’s comments suggest he is a believer in the player but we also know he loves skating skill and is fully bought in on Dean Evason’s Earned, Not Given approach. The best place for Jiricek will be one that gives prospects the chance to make mistakes and forces him to make significant improvements in his decision making, skating and defensive reads.

What the Blue Jackets get in return for this trade will make a huge impact on their trajectory in the coming years and it should not be approached lightly. It’s very unlikely the Blue Jackets get a player of David Jiricek’s immense ceiling.

I am a huge fan of the player and strongly believe in his ability to succeed at the NHL level. It might not be a direct route but his vision, passing and shooting are a formidable combination. His eagerness to make a difference might mean he’s a bit of a wildcard at times but players like this don’t grow on trees.

Above all, I hope the Blue Jackets find a player of similar rarity. Big, imposing and talented right handed defensemen are an obscenely rare commodity. Hopefully, at the very least, the Blue Jackets get a similarly rare player in return (a right handed forward sure sounds nice).

Ivan Provorov looks like his time with the club is coming to an end. He’s doing his part to improve his value while helping make the Blue Jackets a competitive club. If he’s moving soon, the Blue Jackets will have to make sure they have a player who doesn’t undermine the utility of a competitive environment.

Perhaps that player will be part of the David Jiricek return or perhaps someone acquired wheeling and dealing elsewhere (If K’Andre Miller is realistically available the Blue Jackets should be all over it). If not, it’s likely to last until the trade deadline.

Denton Mateychuk & Gavin Brindley

Perhaps, the solution to the Provorov hole already lies on the roster in Denton Mateychuk. His passing and intelligence from the back end could go a long way to improving the on-ice play of young players like Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson. How long Don Waddell chooses to cook him in the AHL is a mystery but when he’s up with the big club don’t be surprised if he has a big impact on results.

Similarly, Gavin Brindley has well established chemistry with Adam Fantilli. He’s only played 2 games with the Cleveland Monsters but, at least to my eyes, it doesn’t look like he’s missed a beat. If he can demand inclusion on the NHL roster sooner rather than later, perhaps that helps float Fantilli’s boat.

On the other hand, keeping the young players down longer than perhaps they need also sends a certain message. It’s not about performing and ups and downs, its about utilizing the available time to get better. There’s plenty of things for a young athlete to learn that don’t have to happen at the NHL level.

Both players play with passion and intensity, play for their teammates and make skilled plays that make their teammates better. They look like perfect Dean Evason system fits and their lights out performances in the AHL may force Waddell’s hand sooner rather than later.

Three Stars of the First Twenty or so Games

Zach Werenski

Zach Werenski is producing at the level that it felt like his rookie season promised so long ago. He’s playing obscene minutes and is once again at the top of the club in terms of performance.

I often though that a better team combined with a reduction in minutes would be the boost Werenski needed to exert more effort and dominate play. Instead it was apparently a carnivor diet. He’s been all over the ice and has won so many loose pucks and tilted the ice in the Blue Jackets’ favor.

Sean Monahan

Sean Monahan has been a deep, slow, healing breath for the Blue Jackets. His poise and intelligence in all situations is something they haven’t ever really had at center ice save for a brief run of Matt Duchene.

His deserves every single one of his points and should be an excellent mentor for the young skill players.

Kirill Marchenko

Marchenko is further leaning into the skills he needs to become that elite complementary player. He’s been a prominent driver of offense, significantly more engaged on the walls and is leaning into playmaking just a bit more. He’s a perfect fit with Sean Monahan.

Honorable Mentions:

Kent Johnson

No single player has brought as much juice as Kent Johnson, save perhaps Zach Werenski. Though his 5v5 impacts leave room to be desired his renewed confidence and skating burst suggest improvement sooner rather than later.

Johnson has revitalized the powerplay, is an excellent combination with Sean Monahan on the penalty kill and has used his puck wizardry to create advantages all over the ice. If he makes any step forward in 5v5 play driving, he’ll likely be moving up.

Yegor Chinakhov

Yegor Chinakhov has taken a dramatic step forward as a play driving winger. There were whispers of it last year as perhaps the clubs most improved player but he’s locked in all of that growth this season.

He still has room to grow offensively but looks well positioned to be a big part of Evason’s favorite matchup line.

Dmitri Voronkov

The early adjustment for Voronkov wasn’t the prettiest but he looks back to his regular form. He’s such a fascinating player with such a modern and intelligent approach to the game. If he can round out his puck touches, he’ll be the type of wall-to-middle power forward that every team covets.