Pre-Draft Roster Pontification: Two Year Window, Five Year Plan

The Two Year Window and Five Year Plan

The Blue Jackets have a two year window before the cap picture gets more perilous and/or open. Johnny Gaudreau’s contract moves from an NMC to partial NTC, Patrik Laine, Erik Gudbranson, Sean Kuraly and Boone Jenner’s contracts all expire.

At the same time, many of their RFAs, Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakhov, Alexandre Texier, Jake Bean haven’t exactly earned long term extensions. Based on various analytics projections Marchenko has earned a medium term extension but Waddell’s intentions have yet to be seen.

Still, if everything goes as projected, many of them could also be signed to short term contracts that expire at the same time as the veterans. That presents a problem but also an opportunity.

Contention Cohort

By my estimation, the Blue Jackets must be prioritizing being competitive around Adam Fantilli’s prime. He’s that guy who looks to be a true franchise pillar. In 2 years his ELC is ending and with it any chance at getting salary-efficient performance while on his ELC.

By the time he’s 25, he must be in the playoffs. It’s highly unlikely he, or the Blue Jackets team, win a Stanley Cup very early in that window. It’s more likely that he, like MacKinnon or Stamkos or Barkov or Ovechkin, win after a sustained period of playoff success (or at the very least getting there).

Recent Cup Winners, namely Tampa, Colorado and now Florida all had consolidated core cohorts.

Stamkos was the oldest, Hedman is 1 year separated from him and Kucherov 2 years from Hedman. Point is 3 years separated from Kucherov. Their significant role players, like Palat, Killorn and McDonagh were similar in age to Stamkos and Hedman.

Florida, who won just last night, had the entirety of their most important players between the ages of 26 and 28. Barkov, Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart and Forsling are all 28. Matthew Tkachuk is 26.

For Colarado, there’s also a bit of a spread. MacKinnon is 3 years younger than Gabe Landeskog and 3 years older than Cale Makar. Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichuskin, Casey Mittelstadt, Artturi Lehkonen and Sam Girard all lie within the Landeskog-Makar age range.

For that reason, we should structure our larger competitive vision around Fantilli and be extremely careful to commit to players more than 3 years older than him. That puts Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov and Yegor Chinakhov at the tops of the age range. Gaudreau, Werenski and Severson are already outside of it with money and term committed.

The Window

This two year window should be utilized with the primary focus of identifying the Core of the Blue Jackets Stanley Cup contention window. It won’t hurt to try to be competitive within those two years so long as it doesn’t undermine potential future contention.

It’s even better if Adam Fantilli and other young core members get some experience playing winning and difficult hockey. The earlier we understand how they perform in high leverage NHL situations the earlier we can identify the important surrounding pieces.

If the roster can pull it’s way to contention that will inform the plan for the 2026-27 season. If the roster isn’t in contention, then the upper bound of the youngest cohort and non-core identified members of the youngest cohort, can be put into play.

Most likely, if Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov and Yegor Chinakhov haven’t taken appropriate steps at that time, they likely won’t be significant contributors to a Stanley Cup contention window. Or, it’s at least unlikely they are perfect complementary fits to the highest levels of talent.

By 2026-27, they will each be 25 or 26 years old and unlikely to take large steps forward. They will still have room to grow but, in this hypothetical reality, won’t be savvy experienced veterans or dynamic performers.

It’s even possible that they do take steps and, because of salary cap efficiency dynamics, still won’t make sense for a contending team. The same could go for high picks like Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger or even David Jiricek or Denton Mateychuk.

Until then, build the best roster you can with the likely transformative 2026-27 offseason pivot point in mind and build an exciting second wave through the draft (later picks this year and early picks in the coming seasons).

Objectives Going Forward

So then, how do we optimize the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons? For that, we’ll take it draft by draft and deadline by deadline. There is no reason not to be patient with all of the youngest players but there’s also no reason not to become a better and more efficient club.

Those players, Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk (perhaps even Gavin Brindley and this upcoming 4OA), will have to understand what winning looks and feels like before the team starts their journey towards Stanley Cup contention.

What should happen, especially if Waddell tries to move the needle forward instead of accumulating more highly valuable draft capital, is acquiring the right players to put our potential core players in positions to play to their strengths.

The Blue Jackets will have to put them in important positions, one where they should be able to play to their strengths, to determine if those strengths are Stanley Cup winning material or project to be.

If the young players are working on weaknesses, we may not know whether they have what it takes to produce during the playoffs until it’s too late. We need them to own their domains and we’ll fill in the gaps once they have appropriate playoff experience.

The Fantilli Plan

We’ve identified that, at least up to this point, Adam Fantilli’s strengths are wide and varied but moving towards an aggressive neutral zone attack (insured by a committed backcheck) may offer him additional opportunities.

Overall, he’s a balanced offensive threat who, at least this past season, struggled against top competition. Finding the right linemates, especially if he’s not ready for matchup or power-on-power minutes with Gaudreau, will be paramount.

He’s an aggressive pacey player so he’ll need someone that can fill in behind him and someone who can put him on the front foot with timely passes into space. We know he’s got built in chemistry with Gavin Brindley so it’s possible they continue that partnership at the NHL level.

For now, it’s too early to put a timeline on Brindley’s performance in the NHL and, after Waddell’s comments about properly developing talent, unlikely he’s a roster solution in 24-25.

The best case scenario involves finding a player who fits with Fantilli in this regard. This could be the Claude Giroux to his Tim Stutzle or the Jamie Benn to his Wyatt Johnston (Kent Johnson or Gavin Brindley can be Logan Stankoven if we really squint about it). Plan B, then, would be to find someone who can attract attention alongside Johnny Gaudreau so that Fantilli can play with CBJ’s currently talented young players.

Finding Kent Johnson

The drama and tension regarding Kent Johnson’s previous season seems to be reaching nearly peak panic. I’ve written previously about his underlying numbers actually improving but there’s still plenty of context that could color your interpretation of those results.

The Blue Jackets defense corps was better than the injury decimated one from last season and he was given some of the easiest competition minutes on the roster. Still, according to Evolving Hockey’s RAPM context-removal algorithm he was improved at 5v5.

From AllThreeZones, we saw that his dynamic transition play all but disappeared. Though he still had some of the best quality of transition his capability to influence zone entries was greatly diminished.

In order to recover this potential, the Blue Jackets have to put Kent Johnson in a position where he can return to playing his game. That is, playing in space and between checks, the skill and tendency that made Jarmo Kekelainen believe that he could be a center at the NHL level.

When moving through the middle of the ice, Kent Johnson skates with his head up and is deceptive, shifty and aware enough to beat defenses without dramatic speed. He’s an excellent distributor and should be able to find an impact in a better neutral zone system.

At the moment, his skillset is mildly opposed to the frenetic north pace but he still carved out his impact on zone exits and with occasional off-wall handling moves into the center lane.

Still, there are a few ways that Kent Johnson’s transition game can be recovered. The first, play him with players that let him take the middle. During this past season, that was Dmitri Voronkov.

Perhaps pairing him with Boone Jenner, with appropriate instruction, could do the same. I worry about Jenner’s tendency to warp the game to a pure pucks on net approach. Still, Kent Johnson-Boone Jenner-Gavin Brindley could be a really fun opportunity for the young players.

If Gavin Brindley is ready, he’s certainly got the sense and timing. If Adam Fantilli doesn’t have a spot next to Johnny Gaudreau, then Kent Johnson and Fantilli could continue to build their Michigan chemistry.

If the Blue Jackets have a bona-fide top-six, perhaps Kent Johnson can be allowed to play pure C a la Casey Mittelstadt (he’s ahead of the curve compared to Mittelstadt at the same age). The problem, then, would likely be some combination of Boone Jenner or Cole Sillinger.

The solutions are varied but the primary consideration is to play Kent Johnson with someone who can get him the puck in space. If they are veterans who have won previously with that strategy, even better. If not, it should at least be with a talented teammate in an offensive situation.

Defensive Improvements

In order to become a better team, as Don Waddell has already indicated, the Blue Jackets must improve defensively. Part of the issue is the high volume of young and/or unreliable players (Patrik Laine, Adam Boqvist, Alexandre Texier, Erik Gudbranson, Ivan Provorov) among their other risk-takers.

Yegor Chinakhov and Cole Sillinger improved as the season went along and Kirill Marchenko began to find his defensive zone wall-game as well but none are guaranteed defensive stalwarts who can elevate the defensive structure.

Similarly, though Boone Jenner and Sean Kuraly are committed and hard working defensive forwards, they aren’t as good at helping move the puck out of the zone. Though they can play minutes against top competition, they aren’t quite as good at transforming the state of the game.

If the Blue Jackets want to improve defensively, acquiring a high quality defensive center may be the place to start. If done at the highest level, this could help slot the Blue Jackets’ center-depth into place.

The difficutlty, then, is in finding good roles for Cole Sillinger and Boone Jenner. If either are moved to the wing, it gets even more jammed. That’s an issue to be solved after, or maybe while, talent is acquired.

Waddell has fired Pascal Vincent, so it’s also possible that systems that better fit the current defensive talent can be implemented. If so, and if the Blue Jackets can replace some of their younger and unstable defensemen with solid veterans, the Blue Jackets young forwards could find themselves in situations where they can make offensive plays (and mistakes) without being instantly punished.

The Young Defensemen

For David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk, the winning recipe may simply be time to cook. Otherwise, finding veteran partners that can allow them to play on instinct would be preferable. The more Stanley Cup experience they have, the better.

Jiricek could use a partner that commands the net-front and lets him have free reign to chase offense, my preference would be another player who has some experience with a highly talented puck-dominant puck-mover.

Alec Martinez doesn’t look like a strong defender anymore but perhaps his Stanley Cup pedigree would help. Perhaps Derek Forbort, kept in the Bruins lineup for his netfront defense, would offer similar insurance.

Similarly, pairing him with a defensively stout play connecting center could insulate some of the breakout and retrieval risks (Nicolas Roy?) and allow the Blue Jackets to reprise the Provorov-Jiricek pair at least until the trade deadline.

As far as Mateychuk goes, Damon Severson would certainly work as a partner. The problem, there, is that it looks like we’d have to find a shutdown pairing that isn’t Provorov-Gudbranson to allow a Mateychuk-Severson pairing to play, provided that Mateychuk isn’t an instant hit.

Finding a good short term partner for Zach Werenski who can help shore up the defensive zone would be huge (Alexandre Carrier?) and allow him to soak the difficult minutes without having to doing everything himself, thereby making deploying any young defensemen lower in the lineup much easier.

There’s certainly a solid outlook provided that Don Waddell can find the right pieces. If he’s eager to develop a more aggressive team he needs to bring in players that have played that style and make sure his coaching has some experience in that venue as well.

Roster Clarity

The second half, after the two year window, is the five year plan. Although the host of young players should be given a chance to establish themselves as core, likely only the best will remain.

At some point, the Blue Jackets will have to consolidate the roster into higher caliber talents. If a player comes along who increases the likelihood of successfully achieving the playoffs before Fantilli’s prime while also not undermining it, the Blue Jackets should be open.

The order of priority for moving asssets will be those at the top range of the Fantilli competition cohort and older players who won’t contribute outside of the two year window.

Largely, that means Chinakhov, Voronkov, Marchenko, Texier, Laine should be moved before Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Gavin Brindley, Denton Mateychuk, David Jiricek or high draft picks. They should only be moved, however, for someone who will contribute over the course of the entire 5 year window.

It would be tremendously difficult to part with many of these young and talented players but if the Blue Jackets get a better player who will still efficiently contribute for the next 5 seasons, they should be open to it.

It’s unlikely that the Blue Jackets ascend into Stanley Cup contention with fully drafted players. If a quality NHL player, who makes sense into the future, is made available, the Blue Jackets should be ready.

While this trade could happen as part of the Patrik Laine deal or during the NHL draft, it also wouldn’t surprise me if the Blue Jackets were future-looking players at the 2025 TDL with their lottery protected 2025 1st round pick in play.

CBJ Depth Chart

This presumes Evolving Hockey contract projections with Texier, Nylander and Bean given placeholder deals just to illustrate their potential availability. Largely, they are all easy to see being moved along with Adam Boqvist.

For now, I have Adam Fantilli listed as a 2C. If he takes huge steps, he could be ready to play with Gaudreau against top competition but I think, in terms of roster planning, it’s too early to guarantee.

This assumes Bean and Boqvist are surplus. It leaves room for Mateychuk and Jiricek to take their places but without more roster tweaking they have only high leverage roster spots available to them.

Blankenburg is also missing from the chart. He did not play for the Cleveland Monsters during their playoff runs perhaps because of an unspecified injury. He’d be an ideal 7th defenseman, and in my view perhaps even a Werenski partner, but his injury history and relative defensive abilities make him far from a sure thing.

If Don Waddell doesn’t make significant improvements at the top of the Blue Jackets roster (primarily next to Gaudreau and Werenski) we should be prepared for another high draft pick. There’s some growth potential from all of the young players but, unless we get major steps from Kent Johnson, David Jiricek and Adam Fantilli, not anything that’s going to result in a late-season competitive team.

The Roster Puzzle

Patrik Laine’s absence from the depth chart is certainly felt. Waddell seems eager to move on but the pieces of the puzzle would fit much more cleanly with a highly talented wing in the top six.

If the Blue Jackets have a dynamic 2nd line, that could free up a Gaudreau-Fantilli partnership. Similarly, if the Blue Jackets were to get a perfect insulating right-wing, I think you could feel comfortable as well.

Boone Jenner is listed as a 3C, partially because that is what he should be. Cole Sillinger is bumped down to 4C but that’s only because there isn’t space. Really, this illustrates a fundamental issue with the Blue Jackets roster: center talent.

Fantilli, Sillinger and even Kent Johnson and Dmitri Voronkov aren’t yet sure things and, outside of Fantilli, may never be contending solutions down the middle. Boone Jenner is best as a wing or 3C in a checking role.

Yegor Chinakhov is certainly talented and has room to grow into something potentially special. He’s a high volume shot attempter but shoots from distance and misses the net quite a lot. For that reason, unless he takes dramatic steps forward, he’s best used as the primary offensive threat on a forechecking line.

What this means, in terms of the puzzle, is that Chinakhov should play away from Kent Johnson, Adam Fantilli and probably also Johnny Gaudreau, at least to start. This also, then, means Cole Sillinger or Boone Jenner should be his centerman.

If Cole Sillinger and Yegor Chinakhov are on the same line, it’s likely taking a matchup role. Unless Fantilli has taken that step, that means we either have Johnny Gaudreau and Boone Jenner playing together again or some version of Boone Jenner and Kent Johnson.

Of course, lineups are always less rigid than we plan for, which is also part of the fun. Finding lineups with options that can move up and down is difficult but rewarding.

Similarly, Denton Mateychuk, Gavin Brindley and David Jiricek make for a difficult fit. It’s entirely possible that all three start the season in the AHL especially if Waddell doesn’t find satisfactory trades to clear room.

Their potential has to be acknowledged but the roster also has to be built to support the young players already in the NHL.

For me, that paints the above roster as the pieces I’d like to keep around and the potential holes that have to be filled around them.

If you think Adam Fantilli is ready for Johnny Gaudreau, then swap him up and Marchenko down. As much as we can, I’d like to move away from too many young players on a line.

Notably, there’s little room for Gavin Brindley. Perhaps that means it’s going to take some time for him to find the roster but maybe that means the Blue Jackets can also deal from a position of great strength.

David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk and Stanislav Svozil all do not have roster positions. I leave room for them to join but am perfectly willing to let them cook another season while the systems are established and on-ice performance stabilized.

If we’d like to add them to the roster, we should have an idea of how it would bump the roster out of these “ideal” depth-chart positions.

That also indicates the following players are “surplus” and can be used as assets to get players who better fit into the above positions. All being considered, likely the in-house solutions will continue in place.

If Fantilli isn’t ready, Boone probably slots next to Gaudreau once again. If Jiricek makes the roster, Severson probably slides next to Werenski and Jiricek is paired with Provorov.

Don Waddell shouldn’t make moves for the sake of making moves which means he’ll have to be patient and hold what he has. It’s easy to see Kuraly, Danforth, Olivier, Provorov, Jenner and Gudbranson sticking around longer-term as the roster gets sorted out.

Offseason Objectives

• Improve Defensively

• Maintain Flexibility for 2026-27 Offseason

• Insulate Young Talent

Secondary Considerations

• Playoff Experience

• Puck Protection and Skills Inside Contact

• Blue-line Entry Passing

• Right Handed Shooter for Gaudreau (could be a center that lets Marchenko shift there)

• Powerplay Faceoff Player

• Insurance to move low quality veteran D

Roster Holes

• High Minute RD (Preferably Penalty Killing)

• Talented Offensive Wing (Preferably Right Handed)

• Veteran Defensive C

• Penalty Killing LD

Next time out, I’ll do a rough draft roster building exercise as well as some microstats or analytics work to survey potential roster fits prior to the draft. Hopefully, that will include some fun Armchair GM resources and won’t be ruined by early Don Waddell moves (unless they’re good)!