Evaluating Waddell’s Offseason

Largely, I believe Don Waddell had a pretty good offseason but one that wasn’t particularly difficult to execute. I didn’t see any moves that suggested a hidden “eliteness” in his drafting and the prioritization of big defensemen was a bit confusing. All told, I’m a huge fan of the Cayden Lindstrom pick and have plenty of time for Charlie Elick as a defensive defenseman as well.

What I liked, at least from the later round picks, is that the Blue Jackets appear to be adding defensemen on longer development timeslines. Luke Ashton and Tanner Henricks will be going to the NCAA to compete and might not be expected to compete for contract spots for up to 4 years. That’s good business for a team with so many prospects vying for time in the AHL right now.

What the Blue Jackets Have in Cayden Lindstrom

Waddell did mention in his post draft breakdown that the Blue Jackets’ draft process could use better incorporation of analytics. Though they appear to be pre-eminent users of certain draft analytics it’s possible that their scouting department was simply abreast of trends. With Zac Urback and Cam Lawrence in the fold the amateur scouting should be incredibly well positioned to enhance the process.

Waddell signed Sean Monahan in free agency and though I’m not a huge fan of the contract his position on the roster helped make it make a lot more sense. Finally the Blue Jackets could put young players in positions to succeed instead of reasons to limit their icetime after mistakes.

Breaking Down the Sean Monahan Signing

Johnny Gaudreau’s death has put pretty much all of the true evaluation possibilities on hold. Whatever plan was being enacted can no longer be properly evaluated. Waddell was in the market for a specific player at the time and is on record for desiring to use the free cap space from the Patrik Laine trade to secure a greater return than paid to move the contract as a contract broker come trade deadline.

This season will be a completely new start for the organization and all moves made after are only attempts to bring stability. From that perspective, James Van Riemsdyk was the correct addition. More on his addition in a coming bigger picture roster breakdown.

Stripping away Alexander Nylander, Alexandre Texier, Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean, Patrik Laine, Nick Blankenburg was tidy business and necessary for the health of the club but these weren’t moves that would, by themselves, make the team better.

“Addition by subtraction” is a nice idea but the roster is only improved if there are players who contribute to wins better with the newly available opportunity. For now, it’s too early to judge Don Waddell’s quality in this regard. (I think Jake Bean and Nick Blankenburg would be beneficiaries of Evason’s approach to defensemen but the Blue Jackets still have too many defenseman and they had years to try to lock something down.)

Waddell still has irons in the fire but is being patient and using his leverage. There are still teams that will certainly want to clear out cap space. The Capitals, Golden Knights, Canadiens and Maple Leafs are over teh cap before LTIR considerations and the Islanders, Kraken, Hurricans and Canucks have less than $100k in cap space. Something will have to give and it’s wise that Waddell is holding space for these types of moves.

While it may feel like the Blue Jackets were “soft improved” relative to 2022-2023, most other teams in the league improved at a greater rate. The loss of Gaudreau is perhaps further evidence for the rest of bottom of the league passing the Blue Jackets by.

From here, the outlook can only be the future. The signings of Jack Johnson, James Van Reimsdyk, Sean Monahan and the acquisition of Jordan Harris suggest Waddell is planning to have a post-deadline overhaul and wants to maintain stability in case that activity is only a sell-off.

These moves also insulate the roster and make it so that the Blue Jackets don’t need to continue to fill out their roster with recent draft picks simply because they are the best available players a la Sillinger in 2021-22. From that perspective, Waddell’s patience will serve the Blue Jackets very well.

I believe Denton Mateychuk and Gavin Brindley have important skillsets for the Blue Jackets and may be better served with NHL minutes than some prospects that were rushed under Kekelainen, but it’s far better to make sure.

Otherwise, the most recent event includes Rick Nash’s promotion. Nash was previously the Director of Player Development, an area of significant underperformance, and is now Director of Hockey Operations. He’s still primarily in charge of development but now also in the room for all major hockey decisions.

I don’t feel particularly great about this move but Waddell seems convinced. Personally, I’m worried that this comes from misplaced loyalty from ownership and calling Nash the heir apparent to the GM role could be a major landmine. In the case of eventual management underperformance, moving on from the only player with their jersey in the rafters would seem like an incredibly difficult maneuver for this ownership group considering their approach to Davidson and Kekelainen.

I see no reason for Rick Nash to not be an effective member of the Front Office but, especially for the Blue Jackets going forward, player development will be absolutely critical. Perhaps moreso NHL coaching will be responsible for “continued development” but more and more the best clubs have elite development staff and thus actualize gains from drafting.

In that vein, I haven’t seen that sort of elite development mindset as we’ve seen from other notable organizations like Dallas with Rich Peverley, Tampa with Roest/Groulx or elsewhere.

Organizations like Toronto and Montreal have picked apart the development hivemind of the Chicago Steel in recruiting Darryl Belfry and Adam Nicholas. From that perspective, the Blue Jackets’ development coach methods of hiring former players leaves them a bit behind the curve of more bona-fide private development coaches.

Perhaps the Blue Jackets can take a step in building out the development department by poaching talent from current development hotbeds in the USHL like Dubuque or Youngstown, CHL hotbeds like Saginaw Spirit or even college like their favorite developing grounds the University of Michigan.

Brandan Naurato, current UM head coach, has a hand in Saginaw’s structure as well and has an absolutely fantastic mindset. I don’t know what position would be required to get him to move from a historic program but I have complete faith it would be a payoff there.

TL;DR

Waddell’s first offseason at the helm cultivated clarity and flexibility. Each move has been sensible and there are hints of good GMing but the difficult part hasn’t come yet. Each of Waddell’s moves this offseason can only be truly evaluated by how he uses the options he’s created.

All-in-all, Waddell’s performance as a GM will be evaluated by how he overhauls the inner-workings of the Blue Jackets club. There’s evidence of a bright start, especially in improving already good draft processes, and the hiring of Dean Evason will bring excellent energy and confidence into the room.

Waddell’s patience will be a beacon for a Blue Jackets organization that has, at times, frothed at the mouth for shortcuts to competition. Keep an eye on Waddell’s activity at this upcoming deadline, and the 2025 offseason, for even better insight into the club’s direction as he gets more of his preferred processes into place.