CBJ vs NSH 4/1
Growing Pains or Fat Needing Trimmed?, Defensive Puck Management Issues, The Sean Monahan-Kirill Marchenko Axis, Scouting the Preds
A chaotic game and a deluge of goals. Perhaps the seal is broken and the Blue Jackets can keep the goals rolling through the end of the season, but perhaps this game demonstrated the fundamental flaws with the roster at the same time.
The Stats
The Blue Jackets had no issues getting to the slot against the Nashville Predators. Perhaps that goes without saying in a game where they scored 8 goals. In contrast from plenty of games as of late, their rush offense was dominant and incredibly effective. At the same time, they also forechecked well. They were flat out better than Nashville and in a way that’s emblematic of the team to date.
As much as the Blue Jackets took advantage of Nashville’s looseness, they met the moment with their own as well by feeding Nashville’s neutral zone offense. The defense, in particular, really struggled to make plays that made sense. Far too many turnovers without pressure from across the roster. Some system issues that Nashville took advantage of, specifically the retrieval turnovers, but mostly a lack of focus from veteran defensemen on exits.
In the end, the game got out of hand with penalties galore. This area, specifically, portended both good and bad omens going forward. Sean Monahan’s fresh approach is unlocking the powerplay creating consistent danger and getting plenty more shots from not netfront situations. It might be turning the corner.
On the other hand, while the PK was great, veteran defensemen like Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov each took two penalties when protecting the lead. It’s that sort of poor discipline from the elder statesmen, on top of the turnovers, that don’t bode well.
In April, the Blue Jackets should be the most focused and dialed in possible. They should take penalties when put into poor positions by threatening offenses and not when closing out periods and games. With the defense as constructed, the Blue Jackets might always be fighting uphill.
Matchup wise, it’s not easy to conclude much. The data is dispersed primarily because Evason simply rolled the lines when the game was out of hand and partially because the chaotic penalty nature of the third period.
The easiest and simplest conclusion is that Voronkov-Monahan-Marchenko was good. Sillinger-Danforth-Olivier look bad against the best players.
In the end, the top line and Werenski grade out as the best and the “identity line” and third pair as the worst.
The Blue Jackets rolled lines, Johnson, Jenner and Fantilli getting the least deployment at 5v5. Though I didn’t think that line played particularly well, they had the opportunity to create plenty more but were wasteful in some of their passing and ideas, they did score some goals to I won’t split hairs.
The Blue Jackets were, primarily, done in by their “bottom six” and third pair.
Stories of the Game
Young Roster Growing Pains?
At this point, we know what the Blue Jackets are and we’ve seen the story bear itself out especially hard through March.
If you take away the middle and manage the puck, the Blue Jackets are hard pressed to generate the offense they rely on. If you are loose and sloppy, they’ll bury you quickly. The Blue Jackets top finishers in Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson are lethal scorers if they have any amount of time.
Those three players, though Marchenko with Monahan is a certified force, don’t have the same presence of mind and breakdown creation abilities to get it done against top defenses. That part is excusable, outside of Monahan none of their top offensive players have done it at the end of the year. They can score enough to win games but not reliably enough if their team is coughing up freebies.
The problem with the Blue Jackets is that they make too many big mistakes to get by on their understandably limited creation against disciplined teams. Some of their games in March were dictated by some unfortunate goaltender mistakes and unlucky finishing but lately, against the not-so-good competition in Pittsburgh, Vancouver and now Nashville, the Blue Jackets haven’t been locked in. It’s not just the youth, though the biggest issue is indeed the powerplay, it’s that the games aren’t just about the youthful mistakes. The Blue Jackets are still paying for the sins of late term Jarmo Kekelainen’s desperate D corps moves.
The bigger roster issues are perhaps better saved for some offseason work and armchair GMing but mostly they need to defend better, save more shots and find some players who can create through the middle lane off the rush.
Strong Side Retrievals
For the most part, the Blue Jackets prefer to rim pucks and take their turnovers their. At their best, the Blue Jackets wingers chip pucks out to sprinters or slow down the play until they can set the bracket, but oftentimes the puck fails to clear the zone. They give up a ton of exit turnover forecheck shots because of this retrieval tendency but usually they remain compact and keep those shots to the outside.
When you see a bunch of “retrieval turnovers” that usually means bad things for the Blue Jackets. In this case the Blue Jackets got exposed on one of their systems meant to mitigate some of this risk. On retrievals, the Blue Jackets love to leave a wing on the strong side wall and play the puck into them. They do this to insure turnover outcomes and increase the likelihood of neutral puck battle wins.
In this game, though, the Nashville Predators played off this tendency and jumped the puck routes to get easy turnovers. They clearly pre-scouted the Blue Jackets system and were prepared for their preferred playstyle. The Preds created varying levels of danger ultimately culminating the third goal (which was made much worse by a poor decision from Zach Aston-Reese as well).
This is always going to happen to a team that has a regimented way of solving difficult problems. It’s on the players, or perhaps the coaches if they notice this tendency, to not rigidly adhere to the playbook and make sure they make the appropriate choices to counter opposition tactics.
One of the worst shifts of the game featured a successful strongside retrieval by Damon Severson but an incredibly poor off-wall pass by Zach Aston-Reese. If we’re looking for scapegoats, it was the interaction between Severson, Gudbranson and Aston-Reese that sunk the Blue Jackets. They’ve been poor at puck moving and zone exiting all season, ZAR being a major reason for “Identity Line” struggles in their own-zone, and this was just the feather in the cap.
Noticeable as well was how much Gudbranson struggled to contain Michael McCarron. No easy task for anyone but certainly the job that Gudbranson should be best suited for given the idea behind his inclusion on the roster.
In this situation, we can see that Ivan Provorov didn’t really have any support but he also pivoted into a prepared Filip Forsberg and a ready Fedor Svechkov. Mateychuk has the netfront covered and Fantilli’s back check is disciplined so he ultimately diffuses the situation before anything bad happens.
While Fantilli still has plenty of issues with defensive coverage, he’s made significant growth in stickwork and converting possession. Winning the puck on the backwall and getting involved to retrieve a dump-in, though he didn’t quite get there, is an excellent use of his skating at the center-ice position.
Defensemen Struggles
It wasn’t just retrievals that were an issue for the Blue Jackets but something much more nefarious. In their previous matchup at the beginning of the season, the D were exposed by the excellent puck thievery of Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly, but this game featured some similarly bad puck play.
No one was exempt. Zach Werenski and Denton Mateychuk played the best games all around and brought some excellent defensive and offensive zone work but both got caught a little bit as well. Mateychuk was exposed on a strong side retrieval, made up for with dominant halfwall stick work from Kirill Marchenko, and Werenski coughed up a free high danger chance with a missed pass after he fell over behind the net. Thankfully, or luckily, for them, those plays didn’t lead to goals.
The mistakes leading to goals:
Gudbranson zone clear straight to Ryan O’Reilly, Danforth slow to cover after recovery
Fabbro hard inaccurate pass to Kent Johsnon on the deep regroup, though KJ could have done a lot more after the turnover to help, Werenski and Fabbro parting a screen last minute
Gudbranson losing the matchup against McCarron again
Rumors suggest Waddell knows he needs to overhaul the goaltending an d corps but Gudbranson, Severson and even forward-sinner Zach Aston-Reese are all under contract for next season. Ivan Provorov, also multiple needless penalty taker, is expiring though Don Waddell may have had a flip-flop change of heart on his contract extension after preparing to sell but keeping him at the deadline last-minute and professing a “deal will get done”.
Time will tell, but he objectives for the offseason are becoming more and more clear.
Marchenko-Monahan
Sean Monahan has been nothing short of a revelation this season, and I’ve covered it extensively. The good news, especially, has been his ability to bring both the powerplay and Kirill Marchenko back to form.
On the powerplay, Monahan’s patience and playmaking bring renewed efficiency. In this game, he was particularly active in rotating through positions and it gave the Blue Jackets a lot of new looks. In particular, he found himself in a premium netfront playmaking role constantly probing for bumper shooting looks for Boone Jenner.
Jenner, Marchenko and Monahan roamed across the ice and created a fascinating three man puck recovery unit while Werenski and Johnson stayed high and facilitated.
Ultimately, I think this motion and playstyle demonstrates some of the next steps for the unit. Marchenko shouldn’t be stapled to the left flank, he’s just not that kind of shooter and not the kind of playmaker to run the play through. He does have excellent puck recovery and supreme creativity in tight spaces. There’s no reason Monahan and Marchenko can’t exchange some netfront and bumper responsibilities for even better slot shot access.
This becomes especially apparent when you see how well Monahan facilitates Marchenko’s slot shooting on his hat trick (not to mention Marchenko’s takeaway into Werenski slot chance into recovery into Marchenko goal). It’s not that Marchenko doesn’t have a good one-timer, it’s just that it isn’t that Stamkos/Laine/Ovechkin style from the dot on the powerplay. If they can translate their powerplay work into more midrange, Marchenko is lethal.
Immediately upon Monahan’s return, we get the reemergence of a forecheck takeaway dominant Kirill Marchenko, especially noticeable on the first goal above.
It’s especially Monahan’s work in puck recoveries and wall battles and his capacity to quickly and cleanly find the next play that help his line work. If the Blue Jackets want to overcome Montreal’s strength of schedule advantage and get into the playoffs, he’s going to be a big part.
Quick Scout
Among other things, I hope that this article helped detail a couple of the places that the Blue Jackets could focus on improving the team next year. Mostly, the capital should be spent on the D corps and goaltending and Nashville isn’t a target there but they do have a player who checks literally every box the Blue Jackets could ask for to complete their top six.
Filip Forsberg
The mixtape is broken into three light sections, each of which I think represent why he would be a perfect veteran linemate for Adam Fantilli.
First, he’s excellent at receiving pucks in the neutral zone and advancing them crosslane or up-ice in stride. Adam Fantilli is a devastating neutral zone attacker but he also wants to carry the puck. If Forberg is his linemate, he doesn’t need puck dominance and can facilitate Fantilli attacking at top speed.
The second soft-section is his in-zone slot playmaking. He doesn’t need a lot of time and has similar poise, patience and decisiveness. He’s excellent at slipping easy to pickup passes through the defense.
The third is his size, strength and puck recovering abilities combined with his excellent goalscoring. Fantilli’s top tier skill is his sublime finishing but he’s also a dual threat. To actualize that, he’ll need a linemate that can do both.
Though I didn’t go into detail on his special teams work, it’s easy to see Forsberg as one of the few players who could comfortably push Dmitri Voronkov in the netfront department. Another right handed passing threat, or a player who can push Marchenko off of the halfwall and into a netfront/bumper dual-threat role, is just about the only thing the powerplay could use.
I can hear you asking already, why would Nashville give up their 30yo superstar on an $8.5m AAV contract with 5 years remaining? Why would a career Nashville Predator waive his NMC to join Columbus? The answer is they won’t and he wouldn’t. NHL GMs always stay conservative and there’s no reason to believe Barry Trotz will pivot his plans despite a down season. Most likely, drafting very high and dropping them onto the roster in short order is the best way to “quick bounce” out of the bottom of the NHL.
Still, it would behoove Don Waddell to make major plays at this player specifically.
Luke Evangelista
On the flip side, Luke Evangelista is a young player on a team that Barry Trotz has been eager to shed them from. He’s right handed and is good at playing the rush possession game and attacking the middle of the ice.
This game, Evangelista’s rush facilitation and creative playmaking were on display. He was involved in plenty of very dangerous chances.
He’s not a perfect player, though he does have critical wing playmaking skills in critical areas, but has enough to build a game off of. He’s young, would perhaps be a breakout bet, and has the right handedness and rush playmaking to potentially form a longterm partnership alongside Kent Johnson, Adam Fantilli or Cayden Lindstrom.
Fedor Svechkov
If I’ve learned anything from breaking down the team this year, it’s that centers like Sean Monahan, though they may not be flashy, are critical for healthy offense at the highest level and might be a more valuable commodity than their flashier higher ceilinged counterparts.
I think, because of players like Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid we may have lost some of the appreciation for centermen who can do their job and elevate linemates with excellent support and facilitation.
The Blue Jackets, specifically, can use players who don’t try to do too much and serve instead as a sort of slower, underneath the puck supporters and weakside conduits. This, at least partially, might explain the unexpected success of Luca Del Bel Belluz who very much has connective and versatile skill where he very much lacks raw footspeed.
Enter: Fedor Svechkov. He might not be too much yet but he’s a very good supportive and play-linking center in the mold of a Sean Monahan. He’s only 21, Russian and has a long way to go before he reaches the levels of Sean Monahan but the skillsets to succeed in a similar role are certainly there.
The Blue Jackets might be eager to acquire him should they move certain players and want this style of center to play 3C in the longer term. Where he may lack the overt intensity and flash of a Cole Sillinger, he might be a better fit for the current system and is likely a better bet for a matchup center.
What do you think about JVR being scratched?