CBJ vs BUF 4/10

Buffalo Pace from Quinn, Peterka and Benson, Defensive Breakdowns, Danforth Pace and Kent Johnson's Quiet Performance

An abysmal performance from the Blue Jackets saved by young goaltender Jet Greaves to keep their mathematical playoff hopes alive.

The Stats

The Blue Jackets gave up multitudes of high danger chances at regular intervals to the Buffalo Sabres while they were largely frozen from the high danger areas save for some tipping and a zone flip from Kent Johnson to James van Riemsdyk.

While the Blue Jackets did indeed have a dangerous powerplay run nearly entirely through Boone Jenner they were largely completely outclassed by the late-surging Buffalo Sabres.

For the most part, this is how far too many of their games have gone in crunch time. The Blue Jackets seem to have the idea that they are a “fast” team with “pace” but the Sabres’ raw energy and execution are at least a tier above what the Blue Jackets can bring and that was obvious from the jump.

Buffalo, in particular, had no problem creating through the neutral zone and were fed especially by neutral zone counter-attacking. To their credit, the Blue Jackets did find a way into the game through their forechecking.

The only players going on the Blue Jackets were Justin Danforth, Boone Jenner and James van Riemsdyk who did most of their work in specific ways, namely tip and netfront chances.

They also happen to be some of the most prolific forecheck chance creators as well.

And this brings me to an interesting insight, or perhaps question, about the game of hockey, really. The winner of the game often feels like the one who controls play and territory the best. Largely, that’s proven true. These teams win back pucks and keep it away from their end, usually knifing through defenses with excellent off-puck movement and passes.

That said, the neutral zone isn’t the only battleground and it can also be subverted with poor play in another critical one: the below goal-line and net-front axis.

All-in-all, Buffalo controlled the game and had enough netfront acumen to win it outright. But, as the Blue Jackets perhaps have found since Boone Jenner’s return, you can be terrible and steal games just by getting to rebounds at the right time.

Open-ice play is ultimately how teams win Stanley Cups, it’s not like Kucherov or MacKinnon are known for how well they crash nets box out and get to rebounds, but this exactly battleground is a key one that can paper over plenty of other deficiencies.

Largely, the Blue Jackets couldn’t complete passes or stop Buffalo from waltzing into the slot and testing Jet Greaves but they won the game because hockey can be like that.

Right now, the Blue Jackets are caught in the middle in so many directions. They want to be fast, and they sort of are, but not really. They have plenty of talent, especially in Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson and Adam Fantlli, but they can’t connect the dots well enough to regularly beat teams purely through possession play. Perhaps some of that is youth.

The end result is warping the playstyle to flow through netfront and “greasy” areas and the late-season success of players like Boone Jenner, Mathieu Olivier and Justin Danforth. If Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli had lethal, or perhaps consistent, rush games perhaps it would feel like they were dictating those moments too.

The critical games and learning moments are great but they’re not exactly coming from the places/players you’d like to feel like the value of winning in these key moments is paying off. Being mathematically alive for the playoffs is great, but is it worth picking outside the top 10? (From a similar but more difficult choice perspective, was keeping Ivan Provorov for these moments worth his potential return and therefore more capital to improve the team in 2025-26?)

The matchup data bears out the rest. The Blue Jackets had nothing going save from their fourth line who ultimately tied the game. They were legitimately good mostly, in my view, off the back of Justin Danforth who is one of the few actual pacey players on the team.

Coming out looking the worst is the forechecking unit of Voronkov-Sillinger-Olivier. The line, theoretically, has a strong identity. When it’s on, it should be very difficult to stop from getting into the zone. In this game, Sillinger’s and Voronkov’s warts were on full display. Defensive miscues and looseness with puck decisions compromised their otherwise effective forechecking. Mathieu Olivier looked pretty good, owning the puck transition play and avoiding major mistakes outside of a blocked point shot.

The CBJ top line, which you’d expect to be a forechecking and perhaps territorial force, was undone by some sloppiness from all three but particularly the passing struggles that have popped up in Monahan’s game since his return.

I thought KJ-Fantilli-JvR was mostly good but undone by their youthful inefficiency and some of the same Fantilli coverage breakdowns that have remained though he was certainly not helped by his partnership with Erik Gudbranson.

Stories of the Game

Buffalo Pace — JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn vs Zach Benson

The prominent young players JJ Peterka and Zach Benson, who the Blue Jackets should absolutely target should they somehow shake loose, each dominated the Blue Jackets in the early goings and played key roles in the Sabres’ goals. Peterka and Quinn were rush forces where Benson brought his pace along the back wall.

In their first shift, we see the Peterka-McLeod-Quinn trio dominate the Blue Jackets to the tune of two scoring chances.

The breakdown happens in an unlucky way, Fantilli was solo winning a forechecking duel against Rasmus Dahlin, his best move happened just prior to the clip, which caused Kent Johnson and JvR to overload on the opposite side assuming that the puck was coming back their way. Dahlin, easily one of the best defensemen in the NHL, creates an advantage out of either luck or a great read of the CBJ structure.

In any case, what makes this attack so dangerous isn’t just Dahlin beating Fantilli, it’s the pace at which McLeod and Peterka accelerated and threatened the soft gap of the Blue Jackets’ defense. Peterka gained the middle, picked up the puck and entered the zone between Mateychuk and Provorov (who is now quite hosed in a 1v2 situation). He holds Provorov’s attention while protecting from Mateychuk’s advances before dishing off to Quinn who pumps a one-timer on net.

Peterka maintains his awareness and takes advantage of the unlucky bounce off the back wall and Kent Johnson’s poor middle discipline to jump on the loose puck and ring a high danger shot off the post, recover it again and get to work sealing the puck from Fantilli on the wall. He loses it, perhaps overplaying his hand a little, but his ferocity is already evident.

Here’s a good selection of highlights from their rush and motion based threat creation, ending in Peterka’s decisive opening goal.

The themes, to me, look a lot like the themes from Colorado the other day. Peterka and McLeod are excellent at identifying and creating 2v1s, especially by dragging defenders and passing to a speed differential using back passes while exaggerating the passing lanes by skating hard and Jack Quinn is excellent at using space and skating speed to cut across the zone east-west and find plays therein.

Peterka’s goal is created by McLeod and Peterka isolating Werenski in the neutral zone. The opening clip is similarly McLeod drawing Mateychuk and JvR to put Peterka and Quinn in isolation against Provorov.

This clip was included but I think it’s worth breakout out again specifically because of some of the issues I addressed with Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli last breakdown. Here, Ryan McLeod carries the puck out and surveys what he’s being given by the Blue Jackets defense. Jack Quinn pulls up at the blueline to threaten a pass over to McLeod which causes Sillinger and Gudbranson to double team Peterka and leave Werenski islolated. What do Quinn and McLeod do? They share the puck! Quinn passes up to McLeod, forcing Werenski to turn and McLeod drops it back to Quinn who stops at the dot to put a hard shot just wide.

In the end, Buffalo created a 2v1 with Werenski and CBJ 2v1’d Peterka in the slot. An incredible example of how sharing the puck and taking what the defense gives you opens opportunities, made perhaps easier by Quinn and McLeod being opposite handed and that creating a clear “win condition” for a chance.

Similarly, and I should perhaps simply write a rush offense breakdown or something outside of the Buffalo breakdown, but here’s a clip featuring Kaprizov and Zuccarello from their last game with the Wild where they, as same handed linemates, share the puck with the trailer to create a Kaprizov goal.

The scenario remains the same. Identify what the defense is giving you, what you and your teammates can do to score, give the puck to an open person and go to a place you can score. Kent Johnson doesn’t need to be a left wing to create Fantilli goals and create more dangerous rushes but he, and Fantilli, need to give the puck to an open person and work together to find the most dangerous scoring option rather than hold the puck until the only option is to force a shot through a goaltender (which they are both honestly good at doing).

Perhaps surprisingly, pace wasn’t only useful for these two in rush sequences but also in forcing the Blue Jackets into bad situations and then creating from there.

This sequence starts with great work from Adam Fantilli on the forecheck and then great routework from Kent Johnson to win the puck and create a threatening opportunity. Unfortunately, the threat is thwarted by JJ Peterka who hustles across to prevent Gudbranson from taking a shot on the dot. Perhaps more work could have been done by KJ to find Fantilli in the crease but this wasn’t a poor look and simply quicker identification and execution would have gone a long way.

Peterka kills the play, Fantilli gets handcuffed and Buffalo clears the zone where Peterka’s work rate and skating shine once again. He doesn’t do anything too threatening but he harangues Erik Gudbranson, making him uncomfortable, and stays skating hard so that he arrives in the neutral zone forecheck in an excellent posture and in perfect timing to pick up the loose puck created by his angling Fantilli into Peyton Krebs.

Kent Johnson hustles back and interferes with Peterka on the entry and though Krebs gets a dangerous attempt, it is ultimately blocked easily by Dante Fabbro and the situation adeptly diffused by quick hands and play selection from Kent Johnson. Fantilli wins an offensive zone faceoff but doesn’t get more either.

Here, Peterka’s pace earns him more than just rush opportunities but allows him to degrade play and recover into a defensively strong position.

Quinn uses his off-puck pace to force the Blue Jackets into a poor position and demonstrate just why these teams are finishing the season in such different states. The Blue Jackets have been on the ice for a long period of time at this point, the forward shifts already over a minute, but I must say how disappointing it is for these three to defend an entry with such little tenacity.

Christiansen and Sillinger offer no pressure and simply allow Tage Thompson time for a free entry and therefore line change with territory. Even worse than the lack of pressure and tandem confrontation from these two in a 3v1 is that they don’t even protect the middle from the next pass either. Sillinger puck watches and gets beat by Rasmus Dahlin, saved from a probable goal by Gudbranson disrupting the crosslane pass.

Buffalo keeps skating and therefore keeps the puck in wherein Jake Christiansen commits the final sin before icing the puck. After McLeod keeps the puck in, Quinn enters from the neutral zone and strides intentionally towards the passing lane between Christiansen and Gudbranson.

What Christiansen does here is fatal for the Blue Jackets. Instead of getting the puck and turning up-ice to find a clear, his first touch is South, which means Quinn’s intensity has put him in a terrible spot and he resorts to a Plan B clear which results in an icing and even more time on ice from this group.

It’s these small details that have become habit for the Blue Jackets as they’ve slid down the rankings and remain especially frustrating as they’re outpaced and outcompeted by a team with no playoff hopes.

Zach Benson, though not demonstrating the excellent rush danger creation of the others, also demonstrated how important pace and motor are to any game. His back wall work, occupying Boone Jenner and Dante Fabbro 1v2, and fluid play connection, alongside sublime Dahlin skill and some unfortunate puck bounces, helped create the second Buffalo goal. He regularly embarrassed Gudbranson on the back wall, but also outhustled and outanticipated Fabbro and sealed and beat Werenski, despite being half his size and worked with Tage Thompson and Jiri Kulich to create a bevy of extremely dangerous chances.

He demonstrates that work and success on the walls isn’t about brute force but about pace, intelligence and leverage more than anything.

He’s only 19 and already one of the best playdrivers in the league.

Suffice to say, if Buffalo makes any of these players available, it would be in the Blue Jackets’ best interest to be involved.

Zach Benson goes without saying and is likely the least available player on their roster (outside of Rasmus Dahlin, I’d imagine).

Jack Quinn was an early target for me, undone by his inconsistency and Buffalo’s poor performance, but if this game is any indication of what remains of his game, he’d have a lot to offer the Blue Jackets rush game. I don’t know if a player of his age, inconsistency and build make him Waddell’s top target but his right handed excellent shot would check multiple boxes. He could be a great breakout bet.

JJ Peterka might be available if only because the rest of the hockey world assumes Buffalo ownership has little desire to meet his financial asks. If that’s true, I assume there will be an outrageous market for him.

Otherwise, I was noticeable disappointed by Bowen Byram. He’s a skilled offensive defenseman with elite skating but he was regularly victimized on the back wall by the Blue Jackets’ forecheck. Given that they already have Zach Werenski and Denton Mateychuk, it simply doesn’t look like a role fit.

Defensive Miscues

The Blue Jackets’ achilles heel continues to be their inability to stop major chances from getting to their goaltender. These misues, largely, come from the same places. Especially as of late, those are Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli and Erik Gudbranson. For different reasons, these players really struggle to execute in-zone defensive systems and are big factors for Buffalos’ rush success this game.

The biggest sin continues to be their trust of teammates, where Gudbranson has really been frustrating in his desire to skate other teams open by overplaying rush coverages noticeable in his attempt to double cover Tage Thompson and leaving Jiri Kulich alone in the slot, but really there’s just a lack of coverage discipline from all three of these players. They simply refuse to mark their assignments and stay aware and ahead of the play.

Fantilli, though his shift was long at this point, simply refused to backcheck leading to a big chance and left Tuch alone in front of the net.

Some of the Sillinger mistakes, such as passivity and puck watching, were covered above in the rush sequences but he also had some trouble in the following clip as well.

I think this clip demonstrates quite a lot about the differences in the two teams at this state. Gudbranson starts the shift off with a hard rim and Buffalo has overlaping coverage on the retrieval. Largely nothing wrong with that, just Buffalo working early to put themselves in a good position.

Sillinger leaves his position late and is quickly beat and Jake Christiansen isn’t following his move either which leaves him in a weird no man’s land on Buffalo exit. All is well and good until Gudbranson hard rims the puck away from his team on retrieval. This poses a problem illustrated by Buffalo having two players to the puck landing spot where CBJ have none to contest the battle. He didn’t have a great option, the Blue Jackets were all beat up-ice but he didn’t slow the play down and eat a puck either.

From there, Jason Zucker and Alex Tuch absolutely work Jake Christiansen and Cole Sillinger by moving the puck quickly and winning the battles easily on the back wall. If Sillinger keeps his head and covers his matchup, Zucker doesn’t get that second and more dangerous shot on net.

After that, Buffalo keeps the puck moving. If you follow Sillinger, you can see the troubles the Blue Jackets have in coverage but this is, admittedly, a difficult situation given there constant motion and fluid puck moving to change the points of attack.

Perhaps more time with the system and a consistent training camp into the full season, each of these players can exhibit the system growth the Blue Jackets need to start making headway in their goals allowed.

Danforth Forechecking

Justin Danforth, and the follow up plays from Zach Aston-Reese and Sean Kuraly, were one of the few bright spots from this game and rightfully earned the game tying goal. I single out Justin Danforth primarily because of how his tenacity and pace drive the positive results of the line. He remains, outside of early season Werenski and Chinakhov, one of the few players that can truly threaten the backline of the opposition team.

I can’t say where the Blue Jackets go from here with him, having already signed Zach Aston-Reese, but if speed is the objective he remains a good option for a speedy forechecking line.

Kent Johnson

Kent Johnson, perhaps quietly, was tied with James van Riemsdyk for the best forward from a shot contribution volume perspective while still finding some access to danger. I thought his handling, deception and creation of passing lanes and ideas stood out as did his work recovering pucks and creating turnovers. Though it wasn’t a loud defensive effort, he backchecked timely and got a stick on a couple of dangerous chances.

His capacity to protect pucks and find quick and short outlets from danger is growing and especially noticeable as he plays against better competition. Some of these sequences where he diffuses pressure with his skating and handling are incredibly impressive and only undone by his poor execution in plays made after the fact.

Still, there are plenty of places to grow and there is a certain limit on his effectiveness with his athleticism as it stands. In comparison to JJ Peterka, the game will always be more difficult. He has certainly improved and is a dangerous enough player without it but he’ll have a tough time accessing the heights of William Nylander or Martin Necas (let alone Artemi Panarin or Patrick Kane) without compensatory improvements elsewhere. Thankfully, his vision, decision making and skill stacking (elements that would be necessary to become a true superstar) have shown improvement throughout the season.

On this clip, he finds a quite excellent playmaking idea but it might illustrate both room to grow or even extremely high hockey sense let down by an unfortunate puck touch from Adam Fantilli.

Upon entering the zone after Adam Fantilli is poke checked on entry, Kent Johnson posts up and stops his feet. I don’t love this habit, his tendency to stop and survey the ice rather than play through and find an option as he’s going killed plays in the above mixtape, but he still makes it work.

At first, I thought him looking of Werenski immediately was a mistake. It still might be illustrative of his unreadiness to make a play immediately after picking up the puck, which could also be the culprit of some of his poor possession killing plays on the half wall, but he quickly moves his feet downhill and gets into a deceptive posture potentially finding a better option.

I can’t say he was the architect of this play from the beginning, though perhaps this was his vision, but his instincts to pass to Fantilli were correct. If Fantilli fields this better, or his pass is better executed, a perfect scoring lane from Fantilli to Werenski is open. It isn’t found, ultimately, but I thought this was worth sharing.

If KJ can find better moves to maintain motion, and he and Fantilli can learn some of what Peterka and Quinn (or Kaprizov and Zuccarello) have to teach there’s plenty of ceiling in their skillsets left.