2023-2024 Debrief: The Two Year Window
Introducing the Debrief Series
Over the next few articles in this series I’ll take a deeper statistical look into the ins and outs of the Blue Jackets 2023-2024 season. In fact, the debrief and season review probably already started with my review of the AllThreeZones microstats.
The ultimate goal of this exercise is to learn lessons about the roster that we can then utilize for roster planning as the Blue Jackets move into the offseason and out of the NHL’s basement.
In order to chart a course forward, we’ll first have to examine this past season which should yield a good understanding of our current strengths and weaknesses. Then, we’ll have to observe some modern roster construction and cap management tendencies and see how they apply to the current Blue Jackets roster.
The primary technique starts with recent Stanley Cup Contenders and Cup Winners, seeing what and how they were constructed and then working backwards. We will have to look at roster composition, style, acquisition methods, etc. The good thing is that if recent playoff success is anything to go by there are a bunch of different ways to go about building a successful team.
The reason understanding the previous season is so prevalent is that the Blue Jackets are on the cusp of installing a new regime. This new General Manager, and whatever downstream staff or organizational changes may come, may have a desire to do things significantly differently.
In order to find the highest impact avenues for improvement, and to properly judge the appropriate time to push forward for competitiveness, we have to make sure we understand the root causes of not only failure but of success from this past season.
The Timeline
There are a variety of directions this new General Manager could go but first I think it’s important to sketch out our current salary cap picture for the immediate future. Within this picture we can see that the potential for major roster overhaul.
The Blue Jackets have an incredibly busy offseason ahead of them with a really large group of important forwards entering restricted free agency this offseason.
The above list also missed out on Kent Johnson and Patrik Laine.
The Core
For a moment, I’ll focus on a critical cohort of RFA forwards.
Yegor Chinakhov
Kirill Marchenko
Cole Sillinger
Kent Johnson
This group of young forwards represents some of the major forward pieces on the roster. Sillinger and Kent Johnson were the first picks made as part of the Blue Jackets’ official rebuild. Chinakhov and Marchenko are in a slightly older cohort but were two parts of the high flying Russian line containing Dmitri Voronkov.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, none of them have distinguished themselves as can’t miss parts of the core. Lately, smart organizations have been investing in young players with large contracts coming off of their ELCs. In many of these cases, they were identified as core parts of the organization going forward.
Typically, they had already “broken out” as players. The trend started with Leon Draisaitl, arguably Nathan MacKinnon, but continued with differing success with Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Dylan Cozens, Matt Boldy, Nico Hischier, Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris and has most recently been more successful with young superstar defensemen like Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson and Owen Power.
The teams that have signed these large contracts are a mixed bag of success. Buffalo and Ottawa have both struggled to get over the hump. The others, with bona fide superstars, have faired better.
None of the aforementioned forwards have demanded their inclusion in this group which may offer a problem for the new Blue Jackets front office. According to recent projections from AFP Analytics and Evolving Hockey, the most likely contracts for each of these players remain “prove it” two year long deals.
Yegor Chinakhov 2 years x $2.3m AAV
Kirill Marchenko 2 years x $3.5 million
Cole Sillinger 2 years x $2.23 million
Kent Johnson 2 years x $1.67 million
Kirill Marchenko does have “secondary” contract options of 6 years x $5.2 million. The rest have long term contract values that are likely much less than the player would be willing to sign.
At first blush, this might not seem like a problem. If each of these players breaks out in the next two years, the Blue Jackets cap picture could get significantly more tight and the Blue Jackets may have squandered an opportunity to create value against the cap.
The reason it may be so important to get those deals right, and locked in at a low dollar value, is that the entry level contracts of Adam Fantilli, Gavin Brindley and David Jiricek will also be expiring at the same time. In order for the Blue Jackets to pull out of a rebuild, Adam Fantilli, and potentially David Jiricek, will have to be performing at a level that begs a full long term contract like those mentioned above.
Similarly, former “core” players for the Blue Jackets, Boone Jenner and Patrik Laine, will also have expiring contracts at the same time that two year window is due.
If all of these contracts go to term, and Fantilli and Jiricek earn “core” contracts, there could be a similar reckoning in the 2026-2027 offseason. Remember, the new manage will not have drafted any of those players. It’s possible that none of them fit the preferred style of play that this person envisions for the club.
A simple detail that doesn’t show up on the big-picture cap-sheet is in Johnny Gaudreau’s contract. He signed a massive deal with a NMC and his performance, up to this point, has been a bit of a mixed bag as well. I imagine he’ll rebound as he’s attached to higher quality linemates but Jarmo Kekelainen did sneak in a tidy bit of business for the next decision maker.
If the Blue Jackets don’t like how their players are performing, the next manager will at the very least have a lifeline with which to move on from Johnny Gaudreau’s significant cap hit.
The Rest
The next group of players are all free agents this season or the next:
Jake Bean RFA
Nick Blankenburg G6 UFA
Adam Boqvist 1 Year
Dmitri Voronkov 1 Year
Sean Kuraly 1 Year
Justin Danforth 1 Year
Mathieu Olivier 1 Year
Ivan Provorov 1 Year
Outside of Boqvist and Voronkov, it’s hard to see any of these players being long-term Blue Jackets or in commanding significantly higher cap-hit than they certainly earn. I think there’s room for Blankenburg, in my reads he’s definitely a player at the NHL level, but there’s already a significant jam with Jiricek pushing for a spot.
The significant caphits, outside of Werenski and Severson’s long term deals, remain Erik Gudbranson and Elvis Merzlikins.
The Two Year Window
What the contract windows suggest is that there’s going to be a two year window that decides the long term competitive trajectory for the club. Largely, these next two years were going to be important anyway. Bringing a new GM into the fold immediately before potentially decisive RFA contracts means, at least in my opinion, that we’re unlikely to have significant roster overhaul this upcoming summer.
That being said, it becomes more likely for significant overhaul just prior to, or during, the 2026-2027 offseason. Any General Manager could certainly want to get to understand the off-ice habits and locker room dynamics before taking a risk on a long-term contract.
Furthermore, the new manager will also have an opportunity to influence the coaching staff during this window. It remains to be seen whether Pascal Vincent will return behind the bench, whether he will be reinforced with more seasoned assistants or whether the new GM will keep the staff for the foreseeable future.
From my perspective, the next two seasons will be utilized as primary information gathering seasons. It’s highly unlikely the Blue Jackets are competitive quickly enough to utilize the cap efficiency of Adam Fantilli’s ELC so the contending window will most certainly have to account for a full cap-hit of his.
In that time, the Blue Jackets should remain patient with young players, insulate them as well as possible but remain aggressive if they deem specific young players to not fit with the corresponding team’s window or a high quality “gamebreaker” or otherwise better fit becomes available.
The Draft
Particularly critical for this upcoming General Manager is going to be the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. This will likely be the first chance for this new person to put their stamp on the organization.
Luckily for them it’s one of the most divergent and least consensus driven drafts in recent memory. There’s a top 14 or 15 but within that range preferences and projection ceilings feel quite different.
Thankfully for the Blue Jackets, they appear to have a high quality scouting staff driven by some talented analytics consultants. The new General Manager may not have their full department set up but they should be able to use reports and information from scouts to pick the player that align with their preferred identity.
From that perspective, the Blue Jackets 4th overall pick should offer some insight into the type of player that the new manager prefers. Leaning into a high-paced middle speed identity could result in Cayden Lindstrom. Drafting purely best player available could be Ivan Demidov. Prioritizing size and defensive acumen could bring Anton Silayev or Michael Brandsegg-Nygard. Prioritizing high skill, puck moving defensemen could result in Zeev Buium or Zaybe Parekh. Two-way potential and even-strength player drivers could result in a player like Sam Dickinson, Artyom Levshunov or a winger like Tij Iginla. If they like competitiveness and IQ down the middle, perhaps it’s Konsta Helenius.
If they believe the Blue Jackets still have some time left before moving into contendership perhaps they weaponize this uncertainty and trade down to accumulate more draft capital.
The Blue Jackets also have a decision to make on their optionally traded 2nd round pick, currently 36OA, as a result of the trade, with salary retention, for Ivan Provorov. It’s not likely the Blue Jackets finish lower than 4th next season but it’s possible the new manager will have a plan in mind and act accordingly.
Largely, it’s my opinion that the Blue Jackets are still in the asset gathering and core formation stage. At this point, draft the best player available and take upside swings late
Wrap Up and Preliminary Offseason Writing Schedule
I think it’s most likely the Blue Jackets have a relatively quiet offseason unless there is directive from ownership. The first signal we will have from the new general manager will be their approach to the draft. The second, most likely, will be their approach to the many restricted free agents this offseason. Offseason front office and organizational additions could certainly come earlier but I’d imagine subtractions would take more time.
As much as this is a results and performance oriented league, the new general manager will certainly want a look into the process of the players and coaching staff. The manager will have data and tape from this past offseason but I’d expect them to integrate themselves to the org and get a look behind the scenes. If the Blue Jackets young players don’t take significant steps there could be a big exodus at next season’s trade deadline.
For the next in the series, I’ll look at the counting stats and some basic underlying numbers for the stretch of games in which the Blue Jackets performed well before they succumbed to injuries post trade deadline.
After that, it’s be detailed looks into individual player performances and microstats both before and during the good stretch. From there, we should have good conclusions or at least points of study for the 2024-25 season. Then, we can potentially move into individual player breakdowns and season reviews for projections, playstyles and roles.
Before the draft, I plan to break down the microstat tracking projects from Mitch Brown and Lassi Alanen as it relates to certain players who could be drafted at 4th overall or later into the first round. If there’s time, video breakdowns of Cayden Lindstrom and the video systems breakdowns of the difficult projections of Artyom Levshunov and Sam Dickinson.
After the draft, or perhaps even before, looking at potential offseason targets from any information we’ve learned will be the most logical course of action. From there, perhaps there are some more Armchair GM leaguewide salary cap previews. Maybe there’s a fun roundtable trade pitch somewhere in there.