The Dust Has Settled on Free Agency, Where Do the Blue Jackets Stand?
The Frenzy
The first day of free agency was an absolute madhouse. On that day, and since then, Don Waddell has made two signings, Sean Monahan and Jack Johnson. Before then, he traded Alexandre Texier, waived Adam Boqvist and chose not to quality Jake Bean and Alexander Nylander.
The two signings fill the holes that I identified though in a sort of roundabout way. When paired with Don Waddell’s press conference we get an idea of how the signings slot into the lineup for 2024-25. Waddell plans to play Sean Monahan on the top line and slide Boone Jenner to the wing. Thus, Sean Monahan enables Boone Jenner to be a type of “middle-six” insulator.
Waddell mentioned that Sillinger and/or Boone Jenner would compete to play in the middle of the third line which could leave either to move around anywhere else in the top nine.
In one move, Sean Monahan made the 2024-25 roster make a bit more sense. It’s not the highest impact signing, and does carry some measure of risk, but it fits the profile. Trying to plan a course through free agency is difficult and risky because teams are often competing against one another.
For the Blue Jackets, it’s difficult to attract players because there’s been so much roster and front office turmoil. Most cost-effective signings come from veterans chasing cups. Sean Monahan isn’t really cost-effective, nor is he cup chasing, but he fits the bill for the most part. He wasn’t the best available player but he is the one the Blue Jackets have and he fits for now.
Jack Johnson looks like a very low-impact locker room signing. He’s won a Stanley Cup and brings an excellent work ethic and personality into the room. He isn’t the best on-ice contributor that was available (Derek Forbort and Nate Schmidt were both similarly cheap but probably better all-told) but he was signed and he checks some boxes.
The only hole that hasn’t been filled is the Zach Werenski partner. From Waddell’s availability it sounds a lot like David Jiricek is playing in the NHL this upcoming season. That means it’s most likely that Damon Severson is the Werenski partner and Jack Johnson will slot next to Erik Gudbranson on the third pair (unless they are reuniting the Provorov-Gudbranson shutdown pairing).
If Denton Mateychuk is ready early, a coach may not mind scratching Jack Johnson or, if Waddell is up for it, trading Ivan Provorov early.
On the whole, the moves as completed suggest Waddell is taking a slow approach to the offseason and in taking this team out of the basement. If everything holds, the Blue Jackets are set up to add another high pick to the stables behind Adam Fantilli.
Moves Not Made
Waddell still has some business left to complete (Patrik Laine’s trade request most specifically) so this can all change rather quickly once again. He mentioned potentially half a dozen new faces and so far, unless you include the potential of David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk, the Blue Jackets have only added two.
Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko are all yet to be signed. Dmitri Voronkov is still on an entry level contract. Despite Waddell’s cap-flexibility there is still precious little roster flexibility.
Perhaps the still clogged roster explained Waddell’s missing on certain “cap dumps” as a way to weaponize some of this available, unlikely to be spent cap space. Mathieu Joseph, Jake Walman and Radek Faksa were all traded, along with assets, to the St Louis Blues or San Jose Sharks simply for taking their cap-hit.
The Blue Jackets certainly would have been improved defensively or by adding any of these players. Perhaps Joseph is simply adding what the Blue Jackets moved on from in Alexandre Texier, perhaps Jake Walman was just poorly shopped by Steve Yzerman.
The fourth line is all expiring but the top nine could stay the same for years without moves. For that reason, Gavin Brindley looks most likely destined to start in the AHL.
Does Don Waddell consider Gavin Brindley and Cayden Lindstrom part of the next competitive wave or are there young players who may be on the move? This upcoming season may be wait-and-see but appropriate moves now could also save headaches in the future.
Don Waddell has created important flexibility with his roster moves. The next step is wielding it appropriately.
Middle Class Mashup
From a big picture, grand strategy perspective patience is an excellent idea. One of the trends of the offseason, at least so far, is the bolstering of the middle class through free agency. The cap increase, along with the desperation of certain playoff-hopeful teams, has General Managers eager to quickly improve their team.
San Jose, Montreal and Anaheim figure to still be poor teams but many others spent precious cap flexibility for 2024-25 competitiveness. The Blue Jackets weren’t involved to the same degree and, though they improved, may fall behind relative to the teams that spent.
Ottawa is spending near the cap by trading Chychrun for Jensen, Pinto getting more expensive and adding Linus Ullmark to their roster at the expense of a retained Korpisalo.
New Jersey, similarly, has also decided to ascend out of the low-middle by spending on Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon and Jacob Markstrom. Bounceback performances from top players and full seasons from their excellent young defensemen should take them out of the middle.
Utah retooled their d-corps but still have plenty of flexibility and exciting young talent. St. Louis is retooling as well but have limited flexibility as a result of a very rigid defense group.
In the Metro Division, Philly, Pittsburgh and the New York Islanders all remain rigid and with little flexibility to make substantial changes. Philly is adding Matvei Michkov, which could be a huge change, but otherwise these middle class bubble teams aren’t dramatically changed.
Washington made the biggest moves to enhance the Ovechkin window adding Pierre Luc-Dubois and Jakob Chychrun. Those additions should keep them above the Blue Jackets but don’t necessarily suggest they are a dynamic team worth paying too much attention to as contenders.
Nashville, Seattle and Detroit all competed in the same highly competitive market and spent a good chunk of their available cap in free agency. Nashville was unlikely to be competitive during the Blue Jackets’ window but spending on Saros, Stamkos and Marchessault further solidified their contention window being, without savvy downstream moves, limited to the next few years.
Seattle and Detroit both appear to have plenty of cap space but each has major RFAs to sign: Matty Beniers, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. Once those contracts are established, they’ll be close to cap teams.
The Blue Jackets still have RFAs to sign as well, but none project to take a significant chunk of cap. Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson are likely to get very cheap prove-it deals. Kirill Marchenko could make up to $6 million but more likely he’ll get something cheaper and shorter. A potential Patrik Laine trade could clear at least that much cap as well.
The leaves the Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, Utah Hockey Club and Buffalo Sabres as the teams coming into the season flying closest to the cap floor.
Preserved Flexibility and Emergent Strategy
As much as I have a desire for the Blue Jackets to get competitive quickly in order to maximize Fantilli’s potential (or at least let the young players play in quality situations for their development), the offseason up to this point has given rise to a different potential emergent strategy.
My Two Year Window and Five Year Plan can still be guiding forces but, through the free agent stocked middle class, the Blue Jackets will have a hard time joining the wildcard race without major roster improvements.
By staying aware of these market trends, the Blue Jackets can maximize their roster strategy and pivot in order to take advantage of the potential short-term competitive mindset of other teams.
Unless the Blue Jackets feel like they have playoff caliber goaltending they’ll still be searching for one of the single most important pieces of a Stanley Cup Winner. Tarasov and Greaves look like they could develop into a quality NHL tandem but they’re far from a sure thing.
Similarly, unless they feel like they have the high-end pieces to compete with the New Jersey Devils’ young cohort, they still need to accumulate talent. The 2025 Draft looks, as much as it can this far out, like one filled with high quality centermen. Continued stocking of the pool could better enhance Fantilli’s prime so that he has the teammates to compete with a peaking Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes.
The Two Year Window, rather than utilizing short term cap space with a larger retool pivot point, can instead be flying low, keeping flexibility and “being in on” potential steals that enhance the Blue Jackets’ competitiveness in the years leading up to the 5 year critical point.
By taking this strategy, the Blue Jackets avoid the increased costs of a competitive market and bolster their “Fantilli Window”. Now, the Blue Jackets can be perhaps a little more patient with their “older” young players like Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger.
If players like David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk, Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger carry the Blue Jackets to competitiveness early the Blue Jackets will be well positioned to address the gaps around them quickly.
The Landscape As It Stands
Though the rumors about Martin Necas have died down we also know that Rutger McGroarty, Cole Perfetti and potentially Nikolaj Ehlers have all requested similar movement. If we can read the tea-leaves, is Yaroslav Askarov willing to be a #2 behind Juuse Saros for 8 years? Where is Spencer Knight standing in that regard?
Vegas, Washington, Edmonton and Nashville look like they may be over the cap. Detroit keeps cleaning massive room for some soon to be determined play (though perhaps the Raymond and Seider extensions are it). Perhaps Waddell continues tweaking the roster or perhaps he has something bigger in the works that avoids a free agency overpay.
Though Waddell indicated all of the RFAs are soon to be signed his words about Kirill Marchenko were the most reserved. Many of the contract projections indicate Marchenko has the potential to be a medium term contract.
If Waddell isn’t eager to commit to Marchenko just yet, and still has a desire to fill the hole next to Gaudreau and Monahan, perhaps there’s another move to be made for some of the above players.
Similarly, if he sees Gavin Brindley as a player in the next year, something has to give. Right now, the young Russian players all comprise the “middle class” of the Blue Jackets roster. Does moving on from that cohort to enhance competitive certainty in the short-term or competitive potential in the long-term make sense?
Chinakhov, Marchenko and Voronkov all have very tantalizing skillsets but so do Askarov, McGroarty or other potentially available prospects just inside the NHL.
With cleared roster spots could come the potential, in coming years, to take advantage of some of these too-eager to spend middle class teams. Perhaps Waddell continues to feel out his club under a new head coach, and potentially fortified front office, and rolls his flexibility advantage into the trade deadline or even next summer.