2024 NHL Draft: Tij Iginla and Berkly Catton
Next up is two WHL prospects whose reputations feel like they are on dramatically different trajectories.
At different points in the year, Berkly Catton and Tij Iginla have had wildly different valuations. As the year wore on, their status as prospects merged closer together as their potential projections potentially intertwine.
Depending on who you ask, Berkly Catton is a future NHL 1C yet to others he’s probably a good wing but best along the perimeter. You won’t find anyone who, despite playing wing, accused Tij Iginla of being a perimeter player though according to his father he may start next season at C.
Historically, their production grades them out well as prospects. The WHL has become somewhat of a hotbed as of late and Berkly Catton produced at a nearly historic volume.
Earlier in the season, around the middle of March, David St. Louis shared this rate adjusted production from their data partners as InStat. In a follow up tweet, he shared the exclusively even-strength points/60:
It does have an effect, yes, but it's not that big. Lindstrom doesn't PK. If we go by even-strength points per 60: 5. Lindstrom 8. Basha 9. Iginla 21. Catton
I share this, as David did, to put Catton’s production in context.
That isn’t to say that we should draft players exclusively because of their 5v5 production being superior. Yes, more of the game is played in that game-state but, and especially at the top of the draft, you’re trying to find the highest impact players.
Catton produced prolifically and he did so on the powerplay as well. That’s good because you want top 5 picks to be core players and you want core players to drive an elite powerplay.
Still, and it’s something David St Louis has been hammering home quite often lately, Berkly Catton got significantly more ice time than many of the other prospects so there were more points available to him.
That likely degraded many of his rate metrics, I think especially so in terms of some playmaking and shooting stats, but it helped him out in terms of points. Neither Catton nor Iginla had high quality linemates though Roulette was good and Cristall may have drawn matchups away from Iginla.
All-in-all, Berkly Catton has the better body of work but Tij Iginla has the better trajectory and an incredible playoff performance to counter Catton’s less inspired showing. Despite potentially swapping position projections, they are two almost diametrically opposed players in many regards.
Tij Iginla, the wing, is an excellent off-wall creator. He’s shoot-first but with the playmaking skills to take advantage of collapsing defences. Berkly Catton is a dominant middle ice transition handler who wants to break down defenses with skating routes and passing but with a wrist shot that’s a weapon as well. Iginla thrives and dictates contact, Catton avoids it.
Berkly Catton has the better Shot Assists/60 and Slot Pass volume. Tij Iginla has better xA1/60 and better shooting all around. Both have similarly prolific zone entry scores but most of Catton’s offense comes from rush play whereas Iginla’s comes from both rush and in-zone sequences.
As far as their exit scores, Iginla exits the zone incredibly efficiently which speaks to his off-wall ability. In the NHL, wingers who can drive exits from the half-wall boards are incredibly important.
For Catton, he drives exits very well but also in volume. He’s a defenseman’s best friend because he’s got excellent routes low in the zone thanks to his agile and maneuverable skating.
Where the two primarily differ are in their underlying transition and space creation metrics. In fact, it’s quite astonishing how similar their defensive profiles are.
Tij Iginla stands out for his ability to create advantages for himself, get pucks inside and use his body. Catton stands out for his ability to move the puck crosslane and utilize the inside lane in transition. These are both projectable but very different skillsets.
Tij Iginla is a highly translatable, outside-in winger with incredible body intelligence who has a diverse skillset that supports his most dangerous weapons: shooting and stick handling. Berkly Catton, on the other hand, is a more heady inside-out driven playmaker who uses his vision and agile skating to play puppetmaster.
Additional Resources
Video Scouting Report
Shift by Shift
Tweet Thread with Skills Showcase