2024 NHL Draft: Macklin Celebrini and Cayden Lindstrom
Before I get into the player cards, I’d like to reiterate that this wouldn’t necessarily be my intended order of prospects. They are included together here because both Macklin Celebrini and Cayden Lindstrom are North American prospects and as such feature under the same tracker in Mitch Brown.
I could certainly edit the image but given there are other European/Russian prospects worth including as pairs, Ivan Demidov and Konsta Helenius will be partnered in their own dual-breakdown.
In the above article is the glossary in case you have missed it.
These are the top two players in the draft and Celebrini has done it without even adjusting for age or league.
This isn’t controversial, Celebrini is the best player in the draft and there isn’t really a contest. His performance in the NCAA is legitimate and his roundedness would certainly put him within the top tier of first overall picks that aren’t considered Generational.
I won’t spend too much time on Celebrini just because there’s really no hope of the Blue Jackets picking there. He’s likely a better prospect than Adam Fantilli who Celebrini outproduced in his D-1 in the USHL with the Chicago Steel (74 pts in 54 games for Adam, 86 pts in 50 games for Macklin). Celebrini will be turning 18 in three days.
As such, this report will primarily focus on Cayden Lindstrom.
If you’d like to understand Celebrini’s game watch the following shifts:
Cayden Lindstrom
Lindstrom’s tracking data is nearly unimpeachable but his draft resume is not without caveats. Lindstrom played on an excellent team, including plenty of time as linemates with probable NHL draft picks Andrew Basha and Tomas Mrsic, and alongside super-prospect Gavin McKenna as well.
He also has a back injury that kept him out of the majority of competition in 2024. He returned for
If Lindstrom played the entire season that would have been good for 97 points in the WHL (46 points in 32 games). Certainly good but nothing outstanding that screams top-3 pick. However, when adjusted for rate he becomes the best draft-eligible producer in the WHL class.
That may also be prone to overstating his impacts but could also come down to having other talented players on his team. His coach simply didn’t have to ride him incredibly hard to get wins but at the same time his team also had plenty of talent to pump up his numbers.
In his last few regular season games before missing basically the rest of the season, Lindstrom was on an absolute heater (21 pts in 12 games). Would that have continued and he solidified his stock or are we now looking at somewhat inflated rate stats due to a hot streak without regression?
His microstats suggest that he deserved to produce a lot of offense.
Specifically, he has uniformly good shot and playmaking numbers, evidenced by his 2.21 xG/60 and 1.64 xA1/60.
In terms of previous season’s tracked data, that places him at the crudely drawn red dot on the screen. His nearest dots are Andrei Svechnikov and Shane Wright. In terms of advantages and transition profile, he’s not quite at Svechnikov’s level of dominance but compares very favorably with Shane Wright.
He doesn’t grade out as a truly special prospect in the way of Matthew Tkachuk, Connor Bedard, Zach Benson or Connor McDavid but he’s exceptionally well rounded.
What differentiates Lindstrom from Shane Wright is his capacity and desire to create and finish dangerous shots. His shooting is a legitimate weapon and his ability to shoot from the middle ice in the offensive zone will likely be his foremost weapon at the NHL level.
Lindstrom is a forceful presence that generates transition at a high volume and doesn’t have any transition weaknesses present in the data. Largely, it’s easy to ascribe some of this smashing success to his unique athleticism that is well in advance of his peers.
Lindstrom stands in his own tier among xG Buildup. He comes by his rush offense honestly by improving the conditions of the puck, transitioning securely and by being one of the best players in the draft at getting off the wall.
He drives entries at volume and gets off the wall. Two necessary elements for producing at the NHL level. While it may be fair to doubt some of his playmaking or zone-exiting techniques, his performance in each regard is still among the top of draft eligible forwards.
He doesn’t exclusively use his size and handling to get off of the wall either but also orchestrates passing maneuvers to escape as well. Perhaps that also paints room for improvement in his small area handling and body control skills. Someone of his size and talent should project to become a solo off-wall force.
It wouldn’t be entirely incorrect to do paint him as a beneficiary of physical tools in advance of his peers either but he’s the type of exceptional athlete that should be able to continue to translate that athletic advantage to the NHL. There will certainly be an adjustment period, and he’ll have to develop supporting skills, as he adapts to the NHL and later on down the road when teams create gameplans to stop him.
A large volume of his offense comes off the rush. He uses his size, speed, power and handling abilities to push back defenses and has the playmaking ideas to find teammates in open spaces behind him.
The concern, there, is that he’s using the same tools on repeat to get the job done. Usually, beating the defense wide instead of chaining multiple passes to gradually increase danger in a possession sequence. It can be an effective tool but you’d love a diversification of approach or a more meticulous orchestration of plays from the back end.
Through the year, the smaller playmaking ideas emerged more frequently and his interviews suggest someone who understands there’s work to do to adjust his game.
The primary justification for drafting Lindstrom as a very high-pick would be belief in his growth curve. Coming into this year he had limited playmaking and defensive impact. As the season went along, he eagerly folded new patterns and commitments into his game (evidence by his playmaking but also his notable Defensive Plays/CA.)
The scouts at EPRinkside believe he plays the sort of heavy defensive commitment game that can work in the playoffs. Earlier in the season, his defensive game was mostly just CHL average. As he gained tracked games throughout the year, his capacity to disrupt plays took a dramatic leap.
Concerns
Still, across Lindstrom’s body of work, there remain efficiency concerns in certain situations. He isn’t necessarily an orchestrator and play-linker (Cross Lane Plays/60 in transition being an indicator) that takes full advantage of his capacity to move pucks off the wall (low in-zone offensive production despite a high degree of off-wall plays) or suppresses shots against outside of his defensive breakups.
Those concerns could be the result of a system that asks him to use his advantages in a different way: push back the defense in transition with wide speed instead of looking to move the puck or play net-front in in-zone sequences to take advantage of his size and frame instead of popping out and orchestrating plays.
This system, and his teammates, could either be covering some potential or they could be papering over holes in his game.
Lindstrom isn’t the most defensively disciplined or high motor player. There are times when his high posture undermines his ability to move and react quickly to changes in the play. A deeper stance could significantly improve his motor and dramatically improve defensive capacity and engagement.
This type of deficiency isn’t something that can usually be improved without significant player buy-in.
Similarly, the pace at which he connects and finds ideas will certainly need to be improved and these connecting plays and high level ideas are what could hold him back from being a true 1C at the NHL level. The smooth blending of skills with limited time between receptions, passes and handling moves are what make truly elite players. Right now, Lindstrom looks a little slow in that regard.
I believe this lack of idea connection speed, at least partially, explains the discrepancy between his stellar xG Buildup and lack of distinguishing actual offense. His role on the powerplay (and in specific in-zone sequences with more talented linemates) can also partially explain the offense as well.
His microstats primarily highlight his dominance at 5v5 but in drafting players in the top 5, special teams impact is highly important. If Lindstrom can’t add skills to an NHL powerplay he’s going to have to go to a very specific team (which could be the Blue Jackets if their current prospects hit) or be a uniquely talented 5v5 player.
With other players, like perhaps Catton or Demidov, it’s very easy to envision them running and continually adding value to an NHL powerplay with their dual-threat and highly creating playmaking minds.
Lindstrom, instead, plays primarily net front in powerplay and extended in-zone sequences. This can be a position on the ice that’s hard to create noteworthy offense from. Typically, these players dramatically inflate their xG totals by spamming ne tfront shots and cleaning up offense.
Lindstrom’s extended offense tracking suggests he’s not that kind of net-front player but he’ll certainly have a limited ceiling if he doesn’t find more puck touches throughout the offensive zone.
Despite routinely using his advantages and read of the game to make an impact, there’s concern that the most common patterns might make him a winger at the NHL level.
Betting against Lindstrom, however, remains incredibly difficult. He comes off as an incredibly hard worker with a strong drive to improve and plenty of love for his teammates.
Film Work
The above clip comes from a shift in his first game during the WHL Playoffs.
He tracks back to cover the middle in transition and head checks to make sure the far player is covered at the blue line. Though he’s tunneled on the play after the blue line, he reads the change of possession accurately.
I don’t know the Tigers’ neutral zone forecheck structure, but I think you’d like Lindstrom to leave the far player for the defensemen and occupy the “five on the die” space between all of them. However, it’s perfectly plausible that he executed the coverage as the system intends.
On the Tiger recovery, there is a player alone at the net-front. It’s possible this was Lindstrom’s coverage, which would explain his defensemen abandoning it for possesion. If he stuck with this net front coverage, he could have orchestrated a skating route that resulted in a more NHL Center-Stable “speed from underneath” type breakout (he often executes this breakouts in different situations as Medicine Hat loves bumping from wall to middle speed as a breakout play).
In many cases, you wouldn’t want your center to blow the zone quickly, however this type of pace pushing movement up-ice is a common tool for NHL centermen like Hintz and MacKinnon.
The Tigers had all of their players in a very tight window around the dots and boards. It’s hard to see how he could have moved to maintain their structure without crowding teammates and dramatically slowing down the attack.
He moved to a place on the ice where he was an easy target for a dangerous pass and then, following reception, improved the condition of the play by attacking through the middle.
He enters the zone at an angle and doesn’t mindlessly prioritize taking a 1v1 while trying to beat a player wide (or even the 2v2 with his teammate, Gavin McKenna). Instead, he works across the ice to gain the entry safely and delay for the second wave. This is a good sign for the diversification of attack. He’s not just a mindless wing attacker.
After he gains the entry, he delays, faces the middle of the ice and cuts across the middle once again. Gavin McKenna has moved in a route to continue to pull defensemen away and Lindstrom moves his route to occupy the only defenseman left in the slot. Then, having occupied all of the defensemen, he drops the pass to Tomas Mrsic who gets a decent quality shot with an open lane.
In total, a pretty good, albeit not dynamic or elite, sequence of play reading and creation from Lindstrom.
He recovers the puck and then tracks across the middle to kill another possession. Here, you’d love for him to be in that lower engaged stance so that he could cut his defenders hands early and fully secure another possession. Instead, it’s a continued wall battle that Lindstrom pushes down the wall.
I think this clip offers a good summary of Lindstrom, at least in part. It doesn’t necessarily capture his shooting ability but it does show Lindstrom’s capacity to create transition and link plays albeit somewhat limited by a motor, pace-of-play and center of gravity that undermines the raw effectiveness and talent present.
It’s worth contextualizing that Lindstrom came back from his back injury/hand surgery to play this game and, if his limited participation in the NHL combine is any indication, may not have been 100%.
Projection and Hintz/MacKinnon Comparisons
If Lindstrom maximizes his tools he should be a transition force that can still hammer the same routes that often make Nathan MacKinnon and Roope Hintz successful drivers at the NHL level. Those are lofty comparisons for players that are difference makers for Contending clubs but they aren’t ones without merit.
At the moment, there’s still a wide gap between Lindstrom’s ability as a prospect and those two bona-fide NHL stars one that cannot be closed without significant development post-draft. I would be careful in ever assuming any draft pick reaches the level of MacKinnon (outside of truly generational prospects).
MacKinnon is able to leave the zone early because his team’s system prefers it and because he’s insulated by players who can get him the puck at will. Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Mikko Rantanen are all capable defenders and puck movers.
MacKinnon continues to be allowed to take those routes because he can reliably read the possession and beat any NHL goaltender wide. He is a guaranteed generator of offense who makes decisions and moves and an incredibly high pace.
Hintz, similarly, is a center who prefers to chase space ahead of the puck and blast down the center of the ice rather than build plays from underneath at every opportunity (in contrast with defensive zone triangle specialist centers like Kopitar, Barkov and Leo Carlsson).
He, too, needed another natural center on his line (in this case Joe Pavelski) and a talented off-wall playmaker in Jason Robertson (along with a defenseman like Miro Heiskanen) to reach his true impact potential.
For the Blue Jackets, they already have a Center that is best utilized aggressively chasing space and playing up-ice in Adam Fantilli (I think there’s development runway for him to become more than that). They have some supporting playmakers (a maximized Johnny Gaudreau or Kent Johnson) who may give room for exactly this playstyle.
They would be without, however, a true defensive triangle play building center. They may be an inefficient club until they can find their Joe Pavelski or Makar-Toews equivalents who can enable multiple lines of aggressive front-foot centermen.
Again, the Blue Jackets should be firmly in the high quality asset accumulation phase. If they have a 1-2 punch of Fantilli-Lindstrom that is the start of an identity to work with. A GM’s work is never done and this draft pick would signal a continued approach to teambuilding.
Timeline
If Lindstrom is to be maximized, he will likely be given time to continue to push his limits and accumulate more skills in the more free WHL environments. Similarly, time spent around Gavin McKenna will only serve as a springboard for his capacity to find NHL timing and playmaking ideas though it may also serve to make the WHL too easy for him.
The primary reason to draft Lindstrom would be to acquire an exceptional athlete with a very steep development trajectory.
Nurturing the trajectory is the only way to maximize his potential. It’s very easy to see an NHL GM decide that his frame and athleticism mean he’s ready for the NHL in a short timeline but I would strong advise against Lindstrom leaving Junior early unless he shows truly exceptional advancement in his D+1.
The above Shift by Shift is a good way to get familiar with Lindstrom’s game. There are some flashes of exceptional takeaways and handling through contract, flashes of playmaking ideas and his work net-front on the powerplay.
Still, throughout, he remains somewhat upright and doesn’t always use his strength/competitiveness to compete for small edges in possessional security.