2024 NHL Draft: Looking Through Draft Logic at 4
I have returned from the wedding and with this final article, I will have finished by draft coverage, if you’d like to call it that.
I believe the hand-tracked data is a powerful tool but its perhaps foremost use will be understanding a player’s style, understanding how they are adjusting to the NHL and also understanding who best they should partner with.
Without more work, it’s unlikely that the holistic picture painted by tracking data is a better assurance of NHL success. That said, xG and xA1, along with xG Buildup, may provide some signal.
Where Jason Robertson, Matthew Tkachuk and even Seth Jarvis may have looked like draft steals, the data tracked by Mitch Brown suggested they were highly talented players who stood out.
Now, I believe it’s time to look at the Blue Jackets’ options and some potential decision-making logic with the 4th overall draft.
The Competitive Cycle
First, it’s not necessarily guaranteed that I have properly evaluated the entirety of the Blue Jackets’ roster. Jarmo Kekelainen and Pascal Vincent have been relieved of their duties and John Davidson has been moved away from a decision making position.
If there was some misalignment that was undermining the active players’ potential it’s now most likely gone. Whether the next coach brings greater alignment or is simply different is yet to be determined.
For now, the Blue Jackets are lead by an “older” cohort of Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski and Damon Severson. Perhaps you could include Boone Jenner but I don’t believe he’s ever had the impact that these players have at their respective peaks.
That old cohort isn’t good enough to win a Stanley Cup. Zach Werenski is most likely a low-end cup-winning 1D but perhaps could be more with a competent partner. Johnny Gaudreau has put up seasons of Elite 1W but those are, at best, sporadic.
Severson didn’t have the observed performance but does have underlyings that suggest he could be the top-pair behind the Elite 1D or maybe someone who slides down and crushes top-competition.
In any case, the cohort is missing some pretty large contributors to Stanley Cup Contention. Luckily for the Blue Jackets, it’s harder to find an easier projection to a Stanley Cup Winning 1C than Adam Fantilli.
For now, he’s the locus around which a contender will be built. Werenski, Gaudreau, Severson all serve as good NHLers who know how to perform at a high level and can help him understand the patterns and timings of high-caliber players.
Outside of Adam Fantilli, the projections are somewhat murkier. David Jiricek as the potential to be a 1D and has shown some tantalizing high-flashes and performances but his skating and consistency aren’t there yet. He’s not a sure thing but he’s good enough to include as a Core piece for now.
Denton Mateychuk and Kent Johnson are likely the highest caliber players that may be potential Core pieces. Mateychuk had a quite monstrous CHL season and joined AHL Cleveland in their ultimate playoff defeat but didn’t look out of place. Kent Johnson may be the single biggest beneficiary of a positive coaching change (provided the new coach believes he’s a part of the solution).
These players: Adam Fantilli firstly but then also David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk and Kent Johnson, are at the very least the seed-nucleus for a potential core. The next two years should be used to ascertain whether they can reach that potential or whether the Blue Jackets will have to get more creative to continue an upward trajectory.
The rest, Cole Sillinger, Gavin Brindley, Stanislav Svozil and Russians included, look like they could be players you’d want to have on your team but not necessarily ones that change your approach to a top 5 draft pick.
Suffice to say, the Blue Jackets are not in the appropriate part of their competitive cycle to pick for positional needs or roster fits (which would potentially maximize performance relative to ELC cap hit), not that you should ever do those things in the Top 5.
While in the top 5, you should fish for stars. If, at all possible, those stars should be centers, unimpeachable top wings or elite defensemen. Which brings me to my next focus.
Drafting for Defense
There is somewhat of a debate as to whether or not you should draft defensemen high. The theory, done via advanced analytics, is that the primary drivers of wins are elite offensive players.
The NHL is a strong-link game and perhaps that is no more evident than the right skew across nearly every analytics metric. Getting a player who is capable of providing 10 wins above replacement is significantly more impactful than upgrading whatever bottom of the roster pieces you already have.
More recently, the criteria for defensemen has advanced. Very few have been taken in the top five as of late: Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, Jake Sanderson, Owen Power, Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec and David Reinbacher.
The first group of names are stellar. The second group is yet to be determined. In any case, all of these players were drafted highly because they aren’t single dimensional players and many projected to be true #1 defensemen.
The jury is still out on Byram, Luke Hughes and the most recent draft picks but Dahlin, Heiskanen, Makar, Sanderson and Power very much look like the next wave of potential Norris candidates.
This draft class is heralded as one of the best in recent memory. According to Corey Pronman, Artyom Levshunov is the best defenseman since Rasmus Dahlin while Anton Silayev, Zeev Buium and Carter Yakemchuk are comparable to Owen Power and Bowen Byram.
If you believe these defensemen are that good then they remain excellent choices for the Blue Jackets at pick 4.
What’s required of true 1D is puck-moving security. Zach Werenski exemplifies it best in how he converts puck retrievals into zone exits. He adds value downstream as well but Stanley Cup Winners almost always have one of these types of puck movers and the future Norris trophy winners will all dominate in this category.
Of that cohort, Artyom Levshunov has the most inspiring puck-moving profile but Zeev Buium projects to be that sort of puck mover.
Anton Silayev, on the other had, really struggles with flashing any offensive potential. The best defensive defensemen are all very talented puck-movers. Devon Toews, Jaccob Slavin, Mathias Ekholm etc.
Furthermore, drafting for exclusively defensive impact is fraught with difficulty. Remember, the draft is the foremost asset acquisition strategy. Good defensive defensemen are valuable, though their worth in relation to offense is still a work in progress, but they are much easier to acquire outside of the draft than Stanley Cup Contender Caliber 2Cs.
Here is a table of the best defensive defensemen over the cumulative period of five seasons from 2019/20 to 2023/24. There are likely some confounding data points, such as the silo’d conferences and shortened COVID seasons.
This is a rough and dirty analysis but I believe it still shows the relative easiness of acquiring true defensive talent. Of the Top 5 defensive defensemen in the NHL during this period, only one was acquired in the first round.
Only Jonas Brodin, Miro Heiskanen and Hampus Lindholm were drafted in the top 10.
Furthermore, many of the best defensive defensemen also grade out well in terms of their Offensive Goals Above Replacement stats as well. Still, at least according to the best public analytics available, offensive impact well outpaces defensive.
Many of the top defensive defensemen, especially on high performing teams, have moved teams. Devon Toews, Adam Fox, Chris Tanev, Mackenzie Weegar, Erik Cernak, Hampus Lindholm, John Marino have all moved.
The number of cup winners with a traded center in their top-six is smaller. St. Louis certainly did it with Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn. Vegas was uniquely well position to get Jack Eichel, Colorado made the best out of a deal for Nazem Kadri. Others, like Tampa and Pittsburgh had exclusively drafted
If there’s anything to learn from this little survey of the defensive analytics, along with the conventional wisdom of “defensemen taking longer to develop,” the lesson would be that draft capital is most likely better used to acquire defensemen who have already developed stalwart defensive games.
Really, this brings caution to pretty much Anton Silayev specifically. If you’re going to take him in the Top 5, you should be sure he’s going to be that guy and someone who has a defensive impact well in advance of Miro Heiskanen.
If you can comfortably project Silayev to develop a puck moving and offensive game, then perhaps you believe he can impact a game in the way that Heiskanen can. It’s possible that his advanced size and early advancement to a very difficult league has suppressed some of these instincts but that would be a large bet to place with the breadth of other defense options available.
The Short List
Ivan Demidov
The not-so-diminuitive Russian winger should likely be the first priority for the Columbus Blue Jackets. He has extreme offensive potential, high competitiveness and projects to be an excellent playmaker into the slot.
Though he theoretically checks many of the same boxes as Kent Johnson, he’s more direct and pacey. I do believe there’s room for both to coexist on the same team, but it’s not something I would necessarily bet on.
It looks like Demidov will move to North America next offseason. If his 2024-25 KHL season, provided that he’s there, goes to plan it could be high time he starts building chemistry with Adam Fantilli.
Cayden Lindstrom
Comparing Lindstrom to Demidov is like comparing Apples to Oranges in many ways. Lindstrom would project as a 2C who plays a playoff style of hockey. Not to say that Demidov wouldn’t be able to produce in a similarly intense atmosphere but it may take a few playoff runs to determine which player truly has the highest impact.
Lindstrom’s back injury is certainly a concern. For that reason, it’s reasonable for him to drop on draft day. Still, he might be the best 5v5 player in the draft outside of Macklin Celebrini.
Though I don’t project him to be dominant on the powerplay, his position there could still leave room for Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli on the flanks.
The primary reason to draft Lindstrom is trajectory. For that reason, it’s advisable for the Blue Jackets to wait until he fully graduates from the CHL and let him continue to hone offensive skills next to Gavin McKenna and Andrew Basha.
Passing on Demidov for Lindstrom would likely be a mistake but the Blue Jackets would still be adding a tremendous player.
Artyom Levshunov
I did just spend a quite a bit of time talking about the perils of drafting defensemen high and I did also just explain that the Blue Jackets do have two young talented defensemen on the way in David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk.
While I believe there’s good reason not to draft Levshunov with the pick, I have the vision for his game at the NHL level and I’m willing to bet that another year in the NCAA will allow him to grow his game significantly.
That said, unless the Blue Jackets also buy into that profile and vision there’s tremendous risk in him as a top 5 pick. He isn’t Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar or even Jake Sanderson without creative development.
His underlying profile and flashes of brilliance will have to continue to grow as will his consistency in the defensive zone. Still, there’s a huge, powerful athlete in a modern offensive zone defender package and that might be too much to pass up.
Still, some of the calculus from the next section may also apply.
The Rest
There are a variety of reasons to draft any of the next portion of the draft list. Each of Tij Iginla, Berkly Catton and Becket Sennecke would add an offensive dimension that the Blue Jackets lack. They look like potentially excellent players but perhaps most likely on the wing. Each of them have an offensive ceiling that is within the margin of error for projecting the total.
I have plenty of time for Zeev Buium and Zayne Parekh but that requires a little more imagination for the roster fit. Draft the best player but don’t create logjams without purpose. Levshunov is different partially because of the rarity of truly high-level right handed defensemen and partially because I’m comfortable projecting Zach Werenski on the roster for the immediate future.
If the Blue Jackets find themselves in this position, not having Lindstrom or Demidov to choose from, they should entertain trading down from this position. After this, there’s plenty of direction and value on the table for plenty of players none of whom are more outstanding potential core fits than the others.
Of course, someone would have to be willing to pay to trade up and they likely observe the same relative value. To me, it’s much easier to see someone who wants a guaranteed Demidov or Lindstrom and trades up with Anaheim. If Lindstrom and Demidov are both gone, perhaps someone at the end of the top 10 is desperate for a certain name (Tij Iginla) or the first pick of the defenseman.