2024 NHL Draft: Brandsegg-Nygård, Chernyshov, Sennecke, Greentree
After covering a good host of the potential first round defensemen (though not all), I believe it’s time to move into the selection of forwards who are likely to go after the first wave of talent.
This is a strange draft, of course, so I would not be surprised by some of these forwards going before any of the previously covered forwards. In many cases, there are some apples/oranges comparisons and pick order may be highly dependent on team preferences.
The Power Forwards
Igor Chernyshov played his full season in the KHL and Michael Brandsegg-Nygård played the full season in HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden’s second-tier pro league. Neither player’s production screams high draft pick but their underlying metrics are sterling.
Worth mentioning, here, that the KHL is a significantly more difficult league.
Both of these power-forwards are right-handed though they occupy quite different roles at different areas on the ice. Like many Russians, Chernyshov plays on his off-wing. Brandsegg-Nygård plays on the right side but often likes to occupy a center role depending on the situation.
Both players are primarily shoot first players who love to shoot from high-danger areas. Brandsegg-Nygård has more balanced passing metrics and more frequently sets up his teammates with passes. Chernyshov prioritizes slot passes but struggles to connect on those plays.
Brandsegg-Nygård has more balanced offensive creation, featuring excellent in-zone production, whereas Chernyshov is primarily a rush-creator.
In transition, the two are quite different players. Chernyshov has quite excellent zone-entry metrics, perhaps due to Russian neutral zone reloading, but isn’t quite as involved on exits and through the neutral zone.
Brandsegg-Nygård stands out for his ability to generate zone exits with control but also for his more advanced use of the middle lane throughout transition. His capacity to chain volume zone exits with this projectable neutral zone approach, finished with entry delays is quite the interesting chain of patterns and might indicate potentially untapped potential.
Defensively, both are stand out players. Chernyshov has high quality defensive metrics all around but his primary generator is forechecking entries. Brandsegg-Nygård has unreasonably high breakups throughout all zones. If these abilities translate, he could be an incredibly high level defensive forward. There are certainly quality of league effects but HockeyAllsvenskan is still a pro-league.
As far as space creation goes, Brandsegg-Nygård looks like the superior player. His capacity to get off the wall is excellent. His ability to create advantages for his teammates, combined with entry delay plays, could indicate a projectable and supportive forward. He uses his body incredibly well but doesn’t lean on handling/skating to beat defenses.
For Chernyshov, he doesn’t appear to utilize off-wall or condition-improving passes. If this isn’t a league/role effect, he may have a significant adjustment period when moving to the NHL. His high rate of advantages for self suggests he primarily tries to outskate or outhandle the opposition. In the NHL, power forwards and forecheckers can be neutered if they don’t find ways to combine with teammates.
Brandsegg-Nygård was a featured part of his teams offense and transition attack whereas Chernyshov was much smaller. This is likely due to Chernyshov’s role as a draft eligible on a KHL team but the data is still favorable for Brandsegg-Nygård.
Worth mentioning, are Brandsegg-Nygård’s international and second-half performances. He was a feature on both his World Junior (5 points in 5 games) and World Championship (5 points in 7 games) teams like his fellow likely first round pick Stian Solberg.
Brandsegg-Nygård scored 12 points in 19 games after returning from the World Junior Championships and added another 10 points in Mora’s 12 game bid for promotion to the SHL. He had 1 point in his first 14 games and 5 points in the 8 games prior to leaving for international duty.
If we take his post-start pace as his “true-form” (which is potentially irresponsible) he scored at a rate commensurate to David Pastrnak and Jesper Boqvist and ahead of recent high draft pick Dalibor Dvorsky as well as high performing older players in Filip Forsberg, William Karlsson and Jesper Bratt.
Perhaps some of the HockeyAllsvenskan habits can also explain his World Juniors production. For a wing, he has an unusual involvement in moving the puck out of his zone. Blue Jackets fans may be familiar with wing-driven zone exits as it’s been a hallmark feature of Patrik Laine, Kent Johnson and Johnny Gaudreau as of late.
It’s likely that Norway was a bit heavily inundated with defensive zone time but his capacity to drive exits and move the puck crosslane is a higly projectable skill. Even here, his defensive play and ability to move the puck off the wall and create advantages for his team were pretty good.
It would perhaps be too much to compare him with the highly talented wings but his underlying metrics, and especially defensive work, paint a picture who could be an impact player in the NHL.
If his development goes well, starting next season with SHL champions Skellefteå AIK, perhaps this is the kind of player that can fill behind aggressive forwards, play in the defensive triangle and come in the second wave as a powerful shooter.
Whether or not he has the play connection and can dictate the game with the puck on his stick could be the difference between him being a middle-six forechecker and a topline defensive forward.
Skilled Wingers
Both Beckett Sennecke and Liam Greentree featured as massive parts of their team’s offense and grade out as excellent creators at 5v5.
Both look to improve their shots, over a volume approach, but Beckett Sennecke takes it to the extreme. Greentree, on the other hard, has the same approach in terms of passing. He doesn’t assist on his teammates’ shots at a high volume but is proficient at completing the very high danger passes resulting in a very high xA1/60.
In terms of situation, Greentree is highly productive off the rush whereas Sennecke is balanced but more in-zone oriented.
In transition, Sennecke is low-volume but efficient. This could suggest room for growth or could be a factor of his team’s system prioritizing center carries. Greentree is dominant at zone entries but less involved in exiting the zone. Perhaps this helps explain his very high rush offense production.
Sennecke uses the inside lane in transition but is primarily straightforward in terms of the later creation. Greentree, similarly, uses the inside lane in transition but is more advanced passing crosslane. Both speak to Greentree’s superior rush game and also show that Sennecke likely prefers to attack 1v1 rather than having a more advanced passing game.
Defensively, Sennecke stands out with his very high rate of forecheck steals. Both he and Greentree are decent at protecting the slot but have little impact elsewhere.
This could also give context for Sennecke’s transition creation techniques. If his team was more “north” and prefered him to attack down the same lane as a way to prioritize speed and get on the forecheck, then it would appear he did an excellent job. In this case, while crosslane and delay plays are potentially indicative of a more projectable rush game, Sennecke made up for that by succeeding in forecheck takeaways.
Both players are pretty good at getting off the wall and creating advantages for their team but Sennecke stands out by driving the lane to create shooting opportunities and using his body for advantages.
Packaging Sennecke’s metrics together and I would feel comfortable in concluding that the Oshawa Generals are a more straight ahead focused team than many that would allow Sennecke to develop some higher level offensive habits.
His lack of cross-lane or delay plays, combined with his Off-Puck Assists, Forecheck Steals and obscene xG/Shot indicate a team, or player, that is very focused on moving north.
Reviewing Sennecke’s tape gives you the same idea. He’s a talented puck handler and seeks to improve that shot location at all costs. That he does do without creating significant advantages for himself suggests he may not be breaking down players (actually getting by them) despite having sublime puck handling and improving shot location.
Greentree, on the other hand, is a more standard wing. He owns rush creation and rush offense, with especially translatable, though not elite, crosslane, advantage creation and off-wall metrics, and is highly involved in entering the zone.
The Red Flags
Initially, I planned to include Cole Eiserman and Trevor Connelly here. Instead, I’ll just do a brief writeup as both have different but significant red flags.
Trevor Connelly has the worst red flags having already been featured in an article from Katie Strang.
Cole Eiserman’s red flags have much less to do with off-ice character issues and moreso with lack of development. He’s undoubtedly a powerful shooter but has dramatically struggled to add layers to his game despite professing that he’s actually pretty good at it.
“I think I have a pretty well-rounded game, it just gets overlooked because of how much I score. It’s almost one of those things where the scoring rates work against you,” Eiserman said. “Obviously the No. 1 thing I do is score, but I think I pass the puck very well and that’s a big part of my game. And my 200-foot game from last year has gotten really good. My coaches are saying that it’s definitely not a problem anymore and it’s perfect.”
The USNTDP is certainly an organization that has players play to their strengths but Eiserman looks closer to Wahlstrom and Bellows than he does Cole Caufield.
In any case, it doesn’t look like the Blue Jackets should have any threat of drafting either of these players. Thankfully, they finished too high for Eiserman. Connelly is just as easy to not draft at all.
On the Late Risers
Both Beckett Sennecke and Michael Brandsegg-Nygård had absolutely fantastic finishes to their season. Same with players like Tij Iginla and even Ivan Demidov. There’s mixed signals on how to properly evaluate torrid season finishes and playoff performances.
Within season improvement should be taken into account, especially as the capacity to improve is a lifelong characteristic and adaptation is absolutely necessary for NHL performance.
How much these late seasons finishes reflect the “true” skill of players like Sennecke and Brandsegg-Nygård could be massive differentiators for their ultimate draft positions.
Both are, potentially, very well position to have dramatic D+1 improvements which would lock them into high value draft picks. Brandsegg-Nygård is moving to the SHL, which may be the best place for a high-floor dynamic defensive prospect and Sennecke will be on a stable and competitive Oshawa Generals team.
In any case, this draft has ripe with opportunities to put the “second half performance” to the test.